NATGAS Quite a few people were short, when you get gap up and run like this, stoplosses get crushed and forced to unwind, sending Natgas higher without even needing buyers.
Institutions will be unwinding shorts and or covering them, retail will be getting their stoplosses crushed.
NATURALGAS That optimal short entry drifts ever closer. Still watching the many weeks long converging triangle >--? Longer term, will Trump's "I-can-end-the-war-in-one-day" boast lead to Russian gas restored to Europe, at the expense of Ukraine land?
NATURALGAS it appears that today it's a bank holiday in the US, given that NY session is the highest volume contributor it might be best to sit this one out today, evaluate the charts from weekly to hourly once market is closed.
NATGAS I wouldn't Fomo in if you missed this move, but the number for today I just got are even better. This is a substantial change.
Production has dropped again to 99.5bcf.
Exports are strong at 14bcf.
This has flipped the market on its head, as we had been expecting for a few weeks now. This is probably the most bullish data setup I've seen in a few months. Not to mention the forecasts are moving a lot colder as the slightly delayed winter arrives.
Some might be worried that this is all because of Gulf production due to the Hurricane. Some of this production cut is due to the Gulf, but the data i have actually shows Appalachian and South Central production is where the cuts are mostly occurring. Only roughly 0.6bcf was lost to the Gulf shutdowns.
This tells me there is more of a fundemantal producer cutting push rather than forced weather shutdowns from the Gulf. The Gulf has a pretty small amount of Gas production, most Gas production is inland these days.
I guess my point is, expect follow through. This isn't worth chasing today, there will 100% be a pullback, iall probably be a rapid pullback, but that's what I'd be buying.
NATURALGAS crazy gap down last weekend 100pts now gap up 120pts! Definatly shaking people out for a big move I do believe. I am still short.. I still think it will reach 2300-2400 before a big run