SHOP 100SHOP needs a pullback here for a confident long rather than chasing it. Expecting this would be the probable path for this run. There is gap below, it can be filled or can act as support. Target 1 - 90 Target 2 -100 Stop loss 55Longby just4tradinUpdated 334
Shopify (SHOP): Is It Just the Beginning?Shopify has been one of our best entries this year, and we remain very bullish on it. From a technical analysis perspective, it's hard to make a bearish case for this stock. We've even seen a change of structure after catching the bottom on SHOP. We've already taken some profits off the table and moved our stop loss to break even for the initial trade. We're now expecting this surge to continue, and as a result, we're planning to place another limit order on Shopify, aiming to buy more if the price moves into the $59.38-$54.59 area. We prefer to enter manually to avoid getting triggered by any sudden news events. If our analysis is correct and this is indeed Wave 2, we could see a really nice rally in the near future on Shopify, potentially breaking the $90 mark and moving even higher. Let's see what Shopify has in store for us next.Longby freeguy_by_wmc224
Shopify: Commerce SuccessShopify continues to dominate the e-commerce platform space, making significant strides in expanding its ecosystem for businesses of all sizes. As the company integrates more deeply into social media and international markets, Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from both consumer demand and business needs for seamless online selling. This strong presence in the global e-commerce sector makes Shopify a compelling investment for those looking to capitalize on the continued shift to online retail. NYSE:SHOP Financial Performance Revenue Growth: Shopify reported revenue of $2.05 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 20.7% year-over-year increase. The company’s annual revenue is on track to exceed $7.76 billion in 2024, up 23.18% from the previous year. This strong growth has been driven by the expansion of its merchant solutions and Shopify Payments Earnings Beat: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Shopify has maintained its profitability, with earnings coming in stronger than expected for several quarters. Analysts have upgraded the stock, citing its ability to continue growing in a competitive space Cash Flow: Shopify’s cash flow has remained robust, driven by its diversified revenue streams, including subscription solutions and payment services, allowing it to reinvest in international expansion and new technologies. Strategic Expansion & Innovations Social E-Commerce & Partnerships: Shopify has expanded its integration with social media platforms like YouTube, allowing more merchants to embed shopping experiences into video content. This positions Shopify to capture more sales in a fast-growing segment of e-commerce Cloud Infrastructure: The company continues to invest in improving its cloud-based infrastructure, allowing it to scale efficiently as more merchants come onboard. Its Shopify Plus platform, designed for larger enterprises, has seen significant growth. International Expansion: Shopify has continued its aggressive expansion into international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, increasing its merchant base and revenue potential globally. Technical Analysis Stock Performance: Shopify’s stock has rebounded strongly from its lows earlier in the year, trading at $78.68 as of September 2024. This represents a 4.6% increase from the previous week. With a price target now upgraded to $99 by some analysts, there’s potential for a continued upward trend Valuation: Shopify’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is around 13.04, which, while high, is justified by its strong revenue growth and market-leading position. This suggests that investors are paying a premium for its potential to continue expanding rapidly Fundamental Perspective Shopify is one of the most compelling plays in e-commerce and SaaS. While it doesn’t currently pay a dividend, its high growth rate, strong financial performance, and strategic innovations make it an attractive investment for those looking for exposure to digital commerce. Upcoming Earnings Dates Q3 2024 Earnings: Expected November 2, 2024 Q4 2024 Earnings: Expected February 5, 2025 Shopify’s continued focus on social commerce and international growth makes it a strong buy for long-term investors, particularly those looking to ride the wave of e-commerce expansion globally. $78.68 NYSE:SHOP Longby LiquidPhD0
SHOP: Resistance and supportHello, SHOP is steadily raising and looks like at a good support. Will it fill the gap below or above first? But for long term, it looks good. NYSE:SHOP by MarathonToMoonUpdated 5
SHOP - too strong on indicator on watch for upside.SHOP - Stock about to fill the gap to $76.50. Looking for calls above $77 for a move towards $80 and $83. Recently YouTube Expands Partnership With Shopify, Allowing U.S. Shopify Plus And Advanced Merchants To Join YouTube Shopping's Affiliate Program Through The Google & YouTube App. Stock is strong on indicator level as well. by TheStockTraderHub1
Shopify Turns BullishThis stock looks good and currently preparing for a bullish wave... Good Thursday my fellow trader, I hope you are having a wonderful day. ➖ This week, SHOP produced a very strong session. This session so far removed all the losses produced in an entire month. One single week negated four weeks of bearish action. Couple this with a strong volume breakout and you have a strong bullish signal. ➖ This week also pushed prices above multiple moving averages which is a nice extra. This gives additional support to the bullish bias: 👉 SHOP is very strong buy above 63. Thank you for reading. Namaste.Longby AlanSantana7721
Despite positive earnings, $shop still going to new lows.The earnings reaction was positive today which saw shares of shop go up over 20%, however we're already fading the news. The big picture is that we're in the process of a larger market wide correction that will bring all stocks down with it. If we look at the chart, even with the news today, price has just formed another lower high and is setting up for a large move lower. I don't think we'll see a bottom be put into the market until we test $31 or lower. Base case is we likely hit the two lower supports on the chart. Let's see what happens in the coming weeks.Shortby benjihyam114
Shopify Surges 22% on Strong Q2 Earnings and Upbeat ForecastShopify Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) experienced a remarkable 22% surge in its stock price following its second-quarter earnings report, which significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. The Canadian e-commerce giant showcased impressive growth in key financial metrics, despite a challenging consumer spending environment. Financial Highlights - Earnings per Share (EPS): 26 cents, surpassing the 20 cents expected - Revenue: $2.05 billion, beating forecasts of $2.01 billion - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): Rose by 22% to $67.2 billion, outpacing the $65.8 billion consensus estimate Shopify’s success is attributed to its robust demand for services that support online merchants, including software solutions, advertising, and payment processing tools. The company's ability to navigate a mixed consumer spending landscape underscores its strong market position. Strong Performance Amid Consumer Caution Despite a cautious consumer spending environment, reflected in recent earnings reports from e-commerce rivals like Amazon, Etsy, and Wayfair, Shopify reported solid growth. The company’s GMV soared 22%, highlighting its ability to capture market share even as broader economic conditions impact consumer behavior. Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify’s CFO, remarked that the company continued to gain market share, driven by its diverse clientele and robust platform. “Our merchants are outperforming and doing better than others,” stated Shopify President Harley Finkelstein, emphasizing the benefits of the company's broad and varied merchant base. Key Metrics and Achievements - Merchant Solutions Revenue: Increased by 19% to $1.5 billion, driven by GMV growth and Shopify Payments adoption - Subscription Solutions Revenue: Grew by 27% to $563 million, bolstered by a rise in merchant numbers and pricing increases - Gross Profit: Up 25% to $1.0 billion, with a gross margin of 51.1% - Free Cash Flow: Increased to $333 million, compared to $97 million in the same quarter last year - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR): Rose 25% to $169 million, with Shopify Plus contributing 31% Positive Outlook for Q3 2024 Shopify (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) provided an optimistic forecast for the third quarter. The company expects revenue growth in the low-to-mid-20s percentage range year-over-year and anticipates a slight increase in gross margin. Additionally, Shopify projects a free cash flow margin similar to Q2 2024 and expects to maintain a double-digit free cash flow margin for the remainder of the year. Shopify’s impressive performance amidst a mixed consumer spend environment highlights its strategic positioning as a leader in e-commerce solutions. By focusing on diversified merchant needs and enhancing its platform's capabilities, Shopify continues to strengthen its role in global commerce. Industry Context The company’s success contrasts with challenges faced by other e-commerce players, who have reported cautious consumer spending. Shopify’s ability to thrive despite these headwinds showcases its resilience and strategic advantage in the e-commerce sector. Technical Outlook As of the current time, Shopify stock (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) has experienced a notable increase of 22.3%. This significant surge is supported by a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58, indicating the likelihood of further price escalation. Additionally, the daily price chart presents a distinct upward gap, suggesting that market dynamics may lead to this gap being filled in subsequent trading sessions. In summary, Shopify's strong quarterly results and positive outlook reflect a company that is not only weathering economic uncertainties but also thriving in a competitive market. As it continues to expand its offerings and drive growth, Shopify remains a standout player in the e-commerce landscape.Longby DEXWireNews2
8/6/24 - $shop - not "obvious", but buying mid $50s into EPS8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP not "obvious", but buying mid GETTEX:50S into EPS - best in class platform, "uber", "abnb", "amzn", etc... - not "cheap" at 50x EPS (pick your bogey) in an ailing consumer - but generates piles of cash (inflecting) and shy of 3% fcf yield this year but growing top line at 20% yoy is *way* better than cash - what still concerns is the mgmt coming out and spooking with regard to short term growth. remember they're pretty exposed to SMB's which are probably most hurt in the current environment - if you don't "need" to own it, probably still a situation where you put it on a short list and hope you get a discount into results - but realistically this tape is bid (at least for now - more on this later - i'd not make this assuming for the coming week even, but it *is* the case now that we're risk on)... which means any reasonable number sends this up 10% and probably sticks. - we also *did* fill the gap sub $50 (from Nov '23), even though it wasn't filled for long. worth noting. - all in... i am probably going to sit this one out (I'm already playing NASDAQ:SMCI tn and NASDAQ:BLDE in the AM and the latter w/ a reasonably larger size 5% ha) so i'm not a lack of action here. - but if you have the ability to add on a miss to NYSE:SHOP (e.g. you size manage correctly) b/c you have conviction in platform etc. ... you'll make money probably in the YE context buying at today's levels. - i'm going to be a bit greedier and attempt to only dip buy any sort of growth hiccup (if/does/and not expecting it/ but let's see). what do u think? VLongby VROCKSTAR3310
$SHOP Under $50Love entries at this level, mitigating smart money sells from Oct 2023. My entry for long term holds. Beyond ATH.Longby IAmTheDisciplinedTrader1113
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price. Longby moonyptoUpdated 2214
SHOPSHOP is a weekly buying demand area, taking into account not breaking the expected target area, area 73by Majed1001115
$SHOP will push higher to end 2Q24May 30, 2024 @6:57AM MONTHLY - Currently on a downtrend (2D-2D-2D Continuation) #TheStrat - Finishing off a Stage 3 #TheMoneyFlow - MACD curling down, RSI curling down at 46 WEEKLY - MACD beginning to curl up - Price is b/t the 0.618 & 0.786 monthly fibs (Oct 2023 - Feb 2024) - Price is slightly under last week's middle price of $58.51 at $58.18 (pre-market) DAILY - Price appears to moving upward after touching lower weekly broadening formation (BF) #thestrat - Gap to be filled above ($64-75) and gap to be filled below ($55-$48) - MACD and RSI curling up - On May 28, NYSE:GS maintained NYSE:SHOP as a BUY DECISION: HOLDING 2 NYSE:SHOP 65C 19 JUL 24 (AVG: $1.76) (DOWN 30% @ 1.25).Longby BrandonthrivesUpdated 4
SHOP - Make or Break ?SHOP was doing too good until today. If this can hold 61 down below, we can see continuation to the upside rally with upside Upside Target #1 - 75 Upside Target #2 - 80 If this breaks 61/60 , we can see downside gap fill upto 48 Downside Target #1 - 55 Downside Target #2 - 48 Rate cuts should favor these growth names. All eyes on 61 price level. !!by just4tradin114
Shopify (SHOP) Fundamental Analysis and Fair Value Estimate **1. Revenue and Growth:** - **Q1 2024 Revenue**: Increased by 23% YoY to $1.9 billion. - **Adjusted Growth**: 29% growth when adjusting for the sale of logistics businesses. **2. Profitability:** - **Gross Profit**: Grew by 33%, reaching $957 million. - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 51.4% from 47.5% last year. - **Net Loss**: $273 million or $0.21 per share, compared to a net income of $68 million last year. **3. Cash Flow:** - **Free Cash Flow**: $232 million in Q1 2024, up from $86 million last year. - **Free Cash Flow Margin**: Doubled to 12% YoY. **4. Balance Sheet:** - **Cash and Marketable Securities**: $5.2 billion as of March 31, 2024. - **Net Cash Position**: $4.3 billion after accounting for convertible notes. **5. Market Position and Competition:** - **GMV**: Grew by 23% to $60.9 billion in Q1 2024. - **Merchant Solutions**: Driven by growth in GMV and Shopify Payments. **6. Valuation Metrics:** - **Price-to-Sales Ratio**: 14.1x vs. industry average of 16.9x. - **Fair PS Ratio**: Estimated fair PS ratio is 10.1x, indicating potential overvaluation based on current metrics. **7. Fair Value Estimates:** - **Morningstar**: $68 per share. - **Simply Wall St**: $58.61 per share. - **Yahoo Finance**: Approximately $49.16 per share. **Conclusion:** - **Fair Value Range**: $50 to $68 per share. - **Considerations**: Strong revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow support the higher valuation, while economic cycle exposure and SMB customer risks may introduce volatility.Longby DrSaud1Updated 6
$SHOP - Breaking out!NYSE:SHOP Shopify is breaking out from a wedge. Look for a close above the 200DMA for confirmation. It is also forming a multi-year cup and handle pattern. A breakout above $90 could see much further upside in the stock.Longby PaperBozz6624
SHOP Waking UpSHOP has been declining for the last ~6 months and now finally waking up. This might be a start to a reversal and then a nice trend. :)Longby finvizclub1
SHOP - LongBreakout, I bought end july calls $70 strike. I think market is still going to hold strong the next few weeks/months.Longby SPYDERMARKET1
SHOP at important level#SHOP is at a pivot level were a trendline is meeting with some resistance, I can see price revisiting highs if we break above this levelLongby HouseOfTrades2
Buy SHOP if it closes above 68.5If Shopify (US) closes above $68.5, my trade plan will be buying 75 call @ 2.4 or 80 call @ 1.45 20 September 2024Longby Phantom_0072
Shopify (SHOP:NYSE) receives support from Goldman SachsJuly 2024: Shopify's shares took a heavy hit in May after a moderate Q1 earnings report which might have beaten investor consensi, EPS by $0.04 & revenue by $20 mio, yet this was not enough to prevent a large selloff. The share price is currently recovering and is now trading 4,5% higher than it did 12 months ago. This is partly thanks to the analyst from Goldman Sachs, who kept the share rating at "buy" signalling that Goldman Sachs believes Shopify can further accelerate its growth. In general Shopify's rating remains a moderate buy, with analysts giving it a price target of $76.42, a 15.5% upside. Shopify has been able to increase its market share in e-commerce software platforms and technologies over the last 18 months, now sitting at around 10%, so its large investments in marketing are therefore paying off and bringing in lucrative orders. Shopify is also investing in artificial intelligence (AI) which gives the company a competitive advantage given the large data pool it has access to, and already uses the technology having launched the Shopify Magic suite last year. The technicals are painting a somewhat mitigated picture, with the RSI sitting in neutral territory around 54 in the daily chart. The stock's price sits above the 50 day MA, and wasn't able to break through the 100 day MA which is flattening out around the 69 mark, which had proved to be a relevant support zone before the drop. The on balance volume is telling us a similar story, namely that buying and selling pressures have balanced out in the last months and that traders are probably lacking a bit of conviction at the moment. We will most likely have to wait for the Q2 earnings report at the end of the month before seeing a significant move again. Longby WHSelfInvest0
$SHOP BreakoutThis 4-hour chart highlights a significant breakout from a downtrend, marked by a rounded bottom pattern indicating a bullish reversal. The price has successfully broken above a key downward trend line and is showing higher lows and higher highs, supported by upward-moving averages. I entered 7/12 $68 Calls at the end of the day once the 4-hour candle broke the pennant resistance. I hope to see a volume spike Friday and to swing these contracts into the following week. Longby MrChartsmith224
SHOP - Swing Entry to Fill The Gap = Target $75As per the title, I will be looking for a swing entry on Tuesday the 2nd of July with a view to fill the gap above + targeting $75. The flush that occurred on Monday was the trigger for a potential coming reversal higher in my mind. Stop Loss will be under the July 1st LOD at just under $63.Longby Jon4th4nB1rd224