8/6/24 - $shop - not "obvious", but buying mid $50s into EPS8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP
not "obvious", but buying mid GETTEX:50S into EPS
- best in class platform, "uber", "abnb", "amzn", etc...
- not "cheap" at 50x EPS (pick your bogey) in an ailing consumer
- but generates piles of cash (inflecting) and shy of 3% fcf yield this year but growing top line at 20% yoy is *way* better than cash
- what still concerns is the mgmt coming out and spooking with regard to short term growth. remember they're pretty exposed to SMB's which are probably most hurt in the current environment
- if you don't "need" to own it, probably still a situation where you put it on a short list and hope you get a discount into results
- but realistically this tape is bid (at least for now - more on this later - i'd not make this assuming for the coming week even, but it *is* the case now that we're risk on)... which means any reasonable number sends this up 10% and probably sticks.
- we also *did* fill the gap sub $50 (from Nov '23), even though it wasn't filled for long. worth noting.
- all in... i am probably going to sit this one out (I'm already playing NASDAQ:SMCI tn and NASDAQ:BLDE in the AM and the latter w/ a reasonably larger size 5% ha) so i'm not a lack of action here.
- but if you have the ability to add on a miss to NYSE:SHOP (e.g. you size manage correctly) b/c you have conviction in platform etc. ... you'll make money probably in the YE context buying at today's levels.
- i'm going to be a bit greedier and attempt to only dip buy any sort of growth hiccup (if/does/and not expecting it/ but let's see).
what do u think?
V
