NatGas Update #Natgas seems to have completed the wave down and is ready to explode. I can label the last wave as a diagonal and it seems that we have small 1-2-3-4 sequence completed.
So I flipped my stance from bearish to bullish.
NG trade ideas
NatGas UpdateI've noticed that Friday and Monday rarely bring a change in gas prices (unlike Bitcoin). Usually, the price follows the previous week's trend, which is currently downward.
It's possible that wave (5) of should be extended because waves and appear to be the same length.
The chart shows weekly cycles that last one week, from Friday to Friday.
Natural gas - liquidity grab at 2.12 - 2.18There are many factors why natural gas is going down:
*Hedge funds and large speculators are still net short
*Retail traders and non-commercials are net long and still not wiped out yet (CBOE and FXCM proprietary data)
*Seasonal variation (warmer than usual summer in northern hemisphere = less demand for natural gas)
*Liquidity still available at 2.12 - 2.18 levels - significant POI including the previous quarterly VWAP (pqVWAP) at this level
*Loosening of sanctions against Russia = more supply of natural gas
The bounce at 2.12 - 2.18 may only small before further downside/sideways price action. Best to leave this trade alone until the dust settles and new support forms on the lower timeframes.
NATURAL GAS 4 YEAR CYCLE PATTERNHere is something to take a look at regarding NatGas.
It appears to follow this 4 year cycle pattern pretty well, every 4 years since 2012 we have seen price go up for 2 years then down for 2 years & recycle.
I was very confident about buying NatGas around 1.60-1.80 as this area appears to be where the cycle starts, now we have already had those prices this year I believe NatGas will now continue to climb higher until 2026 - overall.
Of course price will negotiate in-between, there will be retracements and movements against the cycle but overall this 4 year pattern seems to be the boss on the Monthly timeframe.
Personally I would be looking for NatGas long positions from now until 2026, so every chance you get a discount, take it, because the overall outlook is NatGas ^Up^
If you trade NatGas please comment your opinion I would like to hear it
Natural gas - quarterly VWAP at 2.23 likelyNatural gas is going down. According to CBOE COT report, most big hedge funds and leveraged funds net short since April 2024.
Expecting price to hit at least 2.23 before any meaningful bounce. If leveraged funds and hedge funds keep adding to short positions, it is even more reason to avoid long natural gas.
As per CBOE COT report, retail traders 'non-commercials' are net long on natural gas. This is not something you want to see as most retail traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade.
Just my shorts entry IdeaOverall my best entry for short is still way above but you know price will do what it wants and this is a possible entry for shorts incase price doesn’t want to go all the way up to my original short entry idea.
Natural Gas Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - Price is bouncing lower from a strong resistance zone.
Bearish convergence.
H4 - Bearish trend pattern
Until the strong resistance zone holds I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
NATGAS - Descending Triangle Hello Traders !
On Tuesday 11 June, The NATGAS reached a resistance level (3.006 - 3.046).
The price formed a descending triangle pattern.
At the moment, The support level is broken !
So, I expect a bearish move📉
______________
TARGET: 2.440
NATGAS GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is about to retest a key structure level of 2.40$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas at more than three years lowIf we look at the global financial markets, the price of natural gas has fallen by about 40%, and here comes the moment to ask ourselves whether this negative decline represents an opportunity for investors. To analyze this situation we decided to compare the average return of the asset against seasonality. This is cautioned, in no way should it be taken as investment advice, and investors should keep in mind that natural gas is an extremely volatile commodity!
The two periods in which the price of natural gas fell below $2 were March 2016, when it reached a low of $1,611, and June 2020, with a low of $1,250. It is the last price that is the lowest point of the raw material for decades, but it should be taken into account that it was reached at a time of mass panic, due to the then spreading coronavirus.
If we look historically at what gas does one year after reaching a price below $2, we can see that in both years there is a positive performance the following year. After the decline in 2016, the commodity is up 98 percent, and the next time it is below $2, it is again up 45 percent above its marked bottom.
Alternative Investment OptionsAlternative Investment Options
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In contrast to traditional investments traded on public exchanges with comprehensive regulatory oversight, which typically offer lower volatility and moderate returns, alternative investments, operating in less liquid markets, hold the potential for higher returns but require specialised knowledge and careful attention to regulatory considerations, contributing to their increased complexity and risk.
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For each alternative investment type, investors must consider their personal investment objectives and risk tolerance, as each of the assets discussed below has its specifics.
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Real estate is a tangible alternative investment class, providing investors with exposure to potential price appreciation and a steady rental income, whether through direct ownership or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Real estate investments necessitate a long-term outlook, require significant upfront capital, and are also susceptible to market conditions.
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Peer-to-peer lending utilises online platforms to connect borrowers directly with individual lenders, facilitating loans without traditional financial intermediaries. Returns are generated through interest payments. The potential benefits encompass the advantage of direct lending without the need for a banking intermediary. Considerations involve default risks on loans and a lack of regulatory oversight compared to traditional financial institutions.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gass CompassIn this one I use my preferred charting tool that uses data points from the past: Curved Trendlines. While there are other variations of such lines that I might use depending on the context, in this case the pattern low-high-high or high-low-low is widely detected as relevant and used as such for mapping out potential forces and support/resistance zones.
As you can see there is a relevant potential support zone validated by both the white curve and the blue curve which overlap further in time. There will be no surprises if the these levels keep holding the price for a while.
The yellow one is the weakest one in my opinion, because of the peculiar case on natural gas that doesn't provide much options for such support/resistance lines, because of the X high that was created in a strong but weird position relative to past highs and lows. Meaning that if the yellow is broken on the up, it might not even matter in the future because a different setup might unfold, creating a totally different type of line in any type of pattern regarding previous highs and lows.
What I like about these lines is that the relevant ones tend to provide clear cut cases of rebounds (example in the white dot), retests after break (green dot), or even pure power breaks with no comebacks (yellow dot).
The scenarios I find important in this picture are the following:
- the obvious potential rebound from the white and blue
- the less obvious but very important break on the downside of the white and blue which has a higher chance of a retest because of the significance of these lines (these retests tend to happen for these long lasting lines with many data points)
- supposing the yellow line does hold, or if another similar resistance line appears after another high lower than X, and supposing the white is finally penetrated, we enter the C zone which I believe has a decent probability for action inside it.
I find the B zone less likely to be relevant as it implies the breaking of the white which should lead to a more bearish or consolidation mood rather that another power bullish move.
I decided to post this snapshot here with these lines because as you can see the price has provided decent relevant lines in the recent past with the greens and blue, while in the current present case, these lines are almost non existent because of the position of the X high relative to the previous highs and lows.
My guess is that a careful analysis of the reaction of the market to these lines could give us clues of what the sentiment in the market is, shifting from the bullish mood to a more cautious neutral or indecision mood with the break of the white and blue.
XNGUSDSelling XNG/USD at this key resistance level is a strategic move. The graph clearly shows a downtrend, so we are looking for a retracement at this point to confirm the continuation of the smooth downtrend.
Natural Gas Price: Bullish Trend WeakensNatural Gas Price: Bullish Trend Weakens
Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April and May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market, as this commodity is heavily used for air conditioning.
Specifically:
→ The XNG/USD chart indicates that from 1st April to today, the price of natural gas has increased by more than 55%.
→ According to Bloomberg, there is a 61% chance that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023.
→ Natural gas supplies may be unstable due to an unforeseen maintenance shutdown at the Freeport plant.
According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart:
→ The price of natural gas has formed an ascending channel (shown in blue).
→ On 23rd May, the price reached a 2024 high around the 3.160 level, breaking the upper boundary and entering the overbought zone on the RSI indicator.
→ On 11th June, this high was marginally exceeded, but the price then turned down, forming a false bullish breakout pattern.
Thus, the 3.160 level appears to adequately factor in the risks of an extremely hot summer. Therefore, the bullish trend weakens as it approaches this level.
Meanwhile, bears are becoming more active, indicated by:
→ The price of natural gas twice breaking below the green lines of intermediate upward trends.
→ The price broke below the median line of the blue channel (shown by the arrow).
→ This week, the psychological level of 3.000 acted as resistance.
It is possible that the bears could drive the price down to the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas: A Possible Bearish ScenarioNatural Gas: A Possible Bearish Scenario
Requires more confirmation for NG to move down.
However, considering how NG is developing the chances are that we can see this type of channel pattern taking shape soon.
If NG doesn't make a new high above 3 then it should continue with the bearish scenario
I draw in the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
June 20th Members Daily AnalysisMarkets saw some selling...QQQ finally lagged!
NVVDA almost 8% reversal range. Bearish engulfing
SOXX absolutely bludgeoned.
Oil ripping / NYSE:XOM monster profits.
AAPL PUT / PROFITS SECURED.
US Natural Gas (XNGUSD)A bearish divergence appeared on daily time frame seems the prices may drop in the coming days with the following reasons:
Global Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in global economic activity, particularly in major gas-consuming regions like China, could reduce demand for natural gas and weigh on prices.
Alternative Energy Sources: An increase in the use of alternative energy sources like solar or wind power could reduce reliance on natural gas and put downward pressure on prices.
Lets monitor.
Are we thinking of Fundamental Analysis enough?Norway's gas exports to Europe fell sharply on Monday as a shutdown of the offshore Sleipner hub halted operations at the Nyhamna onshore processing plant, pipeline operator Gassco said, lifting European prices to their highest level this year.
The outage was caused by a crack discovered in a two-inch pipeline onboard Norway's offshore Sleipner Riser platform, the company said. It was not yet known how long this will take to repair, but the situation is not considered dangerous, it added.
NATGAS +30%Natural gas is likely to remain a useful resource in the future for several reasons:
Abundant and Accessible: Natural gas reserves are abundant and widely distributed across the globe. This accessibility ensures a stable and consistent energy supply, reducing dependence on specific regions or nations for energy resources.
Cleaner Energy Source: Compared to coal and oil, natural gas is a cleaner-burning fossil fuel. It emits fewer greenhouse gases and pollutants when burned, making it an attractive transitional fuel as society seeks to reduce its carbon footprint and combat climate change.
Versatile Energy Applications: Natural gas is versatile and can be used for various applications, including electricity generation, heating, cooling, and transportation. Its versatility allows for its integration into different sectors of the economy, reducing reliance on more carbon-intensive fuels.
Reliable Energy Source: Natural gas power plants are highly reliable and can quickly respond to changes in energy demand. This flexibility makes natural gas a valuable resource for balancing intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, ensuring grid stability.
Economic Benefits: The natural gas industry provides economic benefits through job creation, revenue generation, and energy security. The development of natural gas infrastructure can boost local economies and reduce energy import dependencies, contributing to energy self-sufficiency.
U.S. NATURAL GAS (NGAS) UPTRENDING AGAIN?OWN OPINIONS. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
US NGAS has broken short term resistances. If the key longterm trendline is finally broken, it would be uptrending again. NGAS trends in cycles, which means it's mean reversing, so after touching key supports in the 1.60$ area, it's now reversing to the long term means.
Currently, it has broken the 200 day SMA, with a clean backtest and rebound. This price level also serves as a trigger for CTA buying.
As for Elliott waves, we would be starting the 5th wave with a price target of 3.28$/3.55$. That's where there's a confluence of prior relevant highs (breaking above would be very bullish), the 2STD from the YTD AVWAP, and the market maker's short/long flip pivot point
Natural Gas: The Golden OpportunityNatural gas has seen a nice rejection off of 3.19.
A double top on nat gas is observed, does this mean we go lower?
In the near term perhaps some more consolidation is needed but the trend is setting up for the infamous golden cross.
If we get a bullish cross of the 50MA & 200MA this is a likely long term trend signal.
This signals higher probability of a bullish uptrend.
As we approach the elections, a potential trump win could influence the price.
