Natural Gas (Henry Hub) forum
NATURALGAS TL TR post from me, the short story, waiting very patiently before entering a short, currently price is being pushed/manipulated because there's a fckton of liquidity to be taken out before we see a real correction downwards.Begin TL TR :D
Yesterday we saw a pullback from recent swing low with very light volume, typical BS liquidity grab, today however the pump continued and in the 1h chart you can see that volume is increasing above average in the direction of an uptrend.
There is buyside liquidity at 3.5-65, for the market maker to maximise his profit, ideally he wishes to kick all retailers in that area and when there are no more SL left then they will start selling.
Yesterday they did a 1st attempt to dump and shake the market, now is the second phase.
Currently we are stuck in overbought territory at 4h and yesterday already bearish divergences apeared at 1h before the dump. As of today morning oscillators at 1h indicate retracement and continuation of uptrends BUT everything has it's limits. The area around 3.5-3.65 will most likely be tested again AND if price starts showing bearish divergence with oscillators at 1h chart while inside this area then I am entering my short for the week. It appears that the next days till next Monday will have milder temperatures for the US and the upcoming storage report for the week is expected to be bearish, therefore for me both technicals and fundamentals align in the expectation that the upcoming week will be most likely bearish.
Not yet short though, first we need a clear rejection from the high with divergence at 1h.
Good luck everyone!
PS: charts(w, d, 4h, 1h, 15m)
NATGAS come on you double top, now make a Mcdonald M please!!
NATURALGAS Time to sell
NATGAS Production is 104bcfExports are 14.5bcf
Watch these low liquidity moves, the data isn't supporting a random rally.
Only the weather in Jan driving this.
NATURALGAS big dumpp possibeNATGAS As we approach the roll-over to the Jan NG contract at the end of this week, taking off your longs and switching to a short bias makes sense, after the contract rolls off. I don't expect a waterfall down to any crazy low numbers, but a gradual decline to $3.4 then $3.2 or $3 would be expected.
We'll likely see some rapid spikes as winter sends occasional storms no one was expecting, but it would be normal for us to have topped here.
The only spanner that could ruin all of that is the Polar Vortex collapse expected in Jan, right now it's mostly priced in, but if we do get a 2013 like collapse, prices will definitely surge rapidly higher.
NATURALGAS nasty 4h candles indicating "bullish pressure" more like BS pressure, we might see a fake pump followed by the real correction downwards with bearish pressure till next Thursday.