Naira: Future Trajectory and Key InsightsHey everyone, let’s dive into my technical analysis of the Naira and its future trajectory against the US Dollar. Will the Naira strengthen, or will it continue to surge (lose value)? I’ve spotted some critical points on the chart that pinpoint the direction of the next price move with accuracy. Let’s break it down!
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### *The Current State of the Naira*
The Naira has been under immense pressure, and the charts tell a clear story. Using technical analysis, I’ve identified key levels and patterns that reveal where the currency might be headed next. This analysis is independent of the political and economic reforms under the current administration, but let’s be real—the Nigerian economy has been struggling since the Tinubu regime took over. Despite this, I believe the future is bright for our economy. Let’s explore why.
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### *Key Points on the Chart*
1. *Support and Resistance Levels*:
- The Naira has been testing critical support levels, and if these levels break, we could see further depreciation.
- On the flip side, if the Naira manages to break through key resistance levels, it could signal a potential reversal and strengthening.
2. *Trendlines and Patterns*:
- The downward trendline on the NGN/USD chart shows a consistent loss of value. However, if this trendline is broken, it could indicate a shift in momentum.
- I’ve also spotted specific chart patterns (like triangles or channels) that suggest a potential breakout or breakdown in the near future.
3. *Pinpoint Accuracy*:
- By analyzing historical price action, I’ve identified exact levels where the Naira could either reverse or continue its decline. These levels are crucial for traders and investors to watch.
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### *The Big Question: Strengthen or Surge?*
- *Bearish Scenario*: If the Naira breaks below key support levels, we could see it surge further (lose more value) against the Dollar. This would likely be driven by ongoing economic challenges, such as inflation, low foreign reserves, and weak investor confidence.
- *Bullish Scenario*: If the Naira breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a reversal and potential strengthening. This would require positive developments, such as improved foreign exchange policies, increased foreign investment, or a boost in oil revenues.
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### *Why I’m Optimistic About Nigeria’s Future*
Despite the current struggles, I believe the future is bright for Nigeria. Here’s why:
- *Reforms*: While the current administration’s reforms have been painful in the short term, they could lay the foundation for long-term economic stability.
- *Potential for Growth*: Nigeria’s large population and abundant resources provide a solid base for future growth.
- *Resilience*: Nigerians are known for their resilience and ingenuity, which will play a key role in turning the economy around.
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### *What’s Next for the Naira?*
To find out exactly where the Naira is headed next, watch my video for a detailed breakdown. I’ll show you the key levels to watch, the potential scenarios, and what it all means for traders and investors. Don’t forget to *like, share, and subscribe* to stay updated on my latest analyses. Drop your thoughts in the comments—let’s make this discussion engaging and insightful!
NGNUSD trade ideas
$NGN NGN Nigerian Naira at decision Point! 1000 or 2500...$NGN The Nigerian Naira for months has been devalued in relation to the Dollar
Current price: 1773 per $1
The price1773 has previously been visited around March 2024, Price action is currently forming a rising wedge.
Only two things can happen:
#NGN Price Action can break out of the rising wedge to reach higher prices up to 2500
Or
Price Action can continue to reject the area around 1773 to retest supports down to 1000.
Previous Supports: 1576, 1389, 1176, 991
Price action chart for the USD/NGN Let's analyze the provided price action chart for the USD/NGN (U.S. Dollar / Nigerian Naira) using the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts and general technical analysis:
Key Points of Analysis
1. Overall Trend and Market Structure
- The chart shows a strong upward trend until early February 2024, followed by a period of consolidation and then a significant retracement.
- The recent price action indicates a retracement to a key level.
2. Key Levels
- 1562.50 This level is marked as an important resistance. If the price crosses above this level, it suggests potential for further upside movement to 1632.80.
- 1327.50 This level is identified as a potential target for further retracement. The price is anticipated to revisit this level before any significant upward movement.
3. Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)
- The chart highlights an OTE zone, which is typically identified using a Fibonacci retracement. This zone is crucial for identifying potential entry points for a long/Short trade in the context of the overall trend.
4. Weekly and Monthly Opens
- The weekly and monthly open levels are indicated, which can act as psychological levels and potential support/resistance areas. These levels often see significant trading activity.
5. Range Equilibrium
- The equilibrium point of the range is marked, providing a midpoint reference of the overall range-bound price action. This level often acts as a mean reversion point.
Conclusion
Based on the ICT concepts and general technical analysis, the USD/NGN pair shows potential for further retracement to 1327.50 before a possible bullish reversal. Key levels to watch include 1562.50 and 1327.50 , with the weekly and monthly opens providing additional context for potential support/resistance.
This analysis helps in forming a strategic plan, taking into account potential retracements and breakouts, aligning with the overall trend and key levels.
USD/NGNTechnically, i have plausible reasons to believe the Nigerian Naira would begin appreciating in value. My reasons below;
•Trend line broken
•Bearish engulfing candle on 3D timeframe
•FVG, hence a possibility for price to retrace to N890/$
N700/$ is technically possibility before the end of the year.
NairaOne thing to know about naira to USD is that after every consolidation, there's always an historic fall. With how the Nigerian economy is, a currency like Naira only seeks to stabilize rather than hope on recovery. Naira wont be making making a recovery above previous high of 0.002375 and till month of august candle is fully formed, an entry is not advised. Just let August gust away, no clear entry for now just incase you've missed on the last entry point of 0.002366 (DTF)
DT - Daily Time Frame
USDNGN Long term analysis !Pattern Wedge on NGN, but take in mind that this
is monthly timeframe and of course long term
analysis. Based on technical indications NGN can
correct its trend against USD to 349.77 in next
5-6 months. Anyway price can gradually decline
to 360 before christmass holidays\
Terms and short forms!
T - Trendlines (T1,T2... etc.)
S - Supprt levels (S1,S2... etc.)
R - Resistance levels (R1,R2... etc.)
TP - Take Profit
SL - Stop Loss
F - Fibo Levels (F23,F61... etc.)
Check out my next stream "What is divergence, why it is important for trading?"
www.tradingview.com
This is the endBy now, a whooping 171,000 people died of the coronavirus. Let's start to try to imagine what some of the consequences of the lockdown "to save lives" are.
Saving lives is more important than profit.
Nigeria is classified as a mixed economy emerging market. It has reached lower middle income status according to the World Bank.
Nigeria made history in April 2006 by becoming the first African country to completely pay off its debt (estimated $30 billion) owed to the Paris Club.
They are slowed down by the west telling them to use clean energy to save the planet.
They have hard anti business laws, but things are - were - improving.
With the fall of oil prices during the 1980s oil glut Nigeria struggled to keep up with its loan payments and eventually defaulted on its principal debt repayments, limiting repayment to the interest portion of the loans. Arrears and penalty interest accumulated on the unpaid principal, which increased the size of the debt.
Petroleum plays a large role in the Nigerian economy, accounting for 40% of GDP and 80% of Government earnings.
To this day, 22 people have died of the latest coronavirus mutation in Nigeria. The country has a population of 200 million.
Some other examples:
Algeria is classified as an upper middle income country by the World Bank.
Hydrocarbons have long been the backbone of the economy, accounting for roughly 60% of budget revenues, 30% of GDP, and over 95% of export earnings. Algeria has the 10th-largest reserves of natural gas in the world and is the sixth-largest gas exporter.
Venezuela... Ok this is too negative I won't even say a word on this.
Lybia which is already in big trouble has 50% of its gdp reliant on Oil. They used to be a rich country... (Norway is under 10% and the UK is close to 0% - below 1)
The USA used to have 0% of their GDP linked to Oil more or less, but of course it went up alot recently, in particular with Trump wanting to be independant, my sources say 8% of the US GDP is Oil reliant, 10 million jobs.
Lots of middle east & african countries are very reliant on Oil.
Slavery is back in Lybia, the fall of Iraq "bringing democracy" produced wide terrorism.
I wonder what happens when dozens of countries fall even harder than this?
If you think this is alarmism or perma bearishness, please explain where the 15 economies most reliant on Oil will get their money? Food & medecine?
People will survive on hope and positivity and imaginary paper money? Can't eat that.
Bailout everyone? Who bails every one out? Aliens?
WW3 will be brutal.
The butts of priviledged vegans, feminist planet saviors, climate change gender neutral, anti business, and other "let's save lives" clowns are going to hurt very very very strongly.
Probably literally in many cases.
Reality is going to hit so hard...