NATGAS Setup Comprehensive Trading Plan for Natural Gas (NATGAS)
Market Bias:
Bullish with a retracement phase:
• Weekly timeframe: Strong uptrend with overbought signals but well above the Ichimoku cloud and SMAs, showing long-term bullish momentum.
• Daily timeframe: Bullish, but in a healthy pullback phase with support around the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels.
• 4H timeframe: Price is testing support levels but remains above the Ichimoku cloud and key SMAs (100 and 200), signaling potential for a bullish reversal from oversold conditions.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels (Potential Entry Zones):
1. Primary support: 3.67 - 3.71 (confluence of 100 SMA (4H), Ichimoku cloud, and Fib 0.5-0.618 retracement).
2. Secondary support: 3.54 - 3.59 (Fib 0.786 retracement and approaching 200 SMA on 4H).
3. Deep support: 3.29 - 3.35 (Daily Ichimoku base line and Bollinger Band lower range).
Resistance Levels (Take-Profit Areas):
1. 4.00 - 4.05: Daily Ichimoku base line and Bollinger Band upper resistance.
2. 4.14 - 4.20: Swing high and key Fib extension (1.618).
3. 4.31: Fibonacci extension (potential breakout target).
Actionable Setup:
Entry Plan (Bullish Reversal Strategy):
1. Primary Entry (Shallow Pullback): 3.67 - 3.71:
• Enter long if:
• 4H RSI crosses above 50.
• VW MACD turns green with positive momentum.
• Chaikin Oscillator turns positive, indicating buying inflow.
• Suggested leverage: x10 - x15.
2. Secondary Entry (Deeper Pullback): 3.54 - 3.59:
• Enter long if:
• Price finds support at the 200 SMA (4H).
• OBV forms a higher low and moves upward.
• CMF turns from negative to neutral/positive.
• Suggested leverage: x15.
Stop-Loss (SL):
• Conservative SL: 3.50 (below the Fib 0.786 level).
• Aggressive SL: 3.29 (below Daily Ichimoku base line and 200 SMA).
Take-Profit (TP):
1. TP1: 4.00 - 4.05 (+8.0%) – Ichimoku resistance and round number.
2. TP2: 4.14 - 4.20 (+12%) – Recent swing high and Fib extension.
3. TP3: 4.31 (+16.5%) – Potential breakout target from Fib 1.618 extension.
Trade Conditions for Confirmation:
• Daily RSI: Must remain above 50 to confirm that bullish momentum is intact.
• 2H and 4H MACD: Must show a green shift (waning bearishness and increasing bullish pressure).
• Chaikin Oscillator: Must approach zero or turn positive, confirming capital inflows.
• CMF: Should shift closer to or above zero to validate buying interest.
Position Management:
• Scaling in: Add to the position if price holds above the 100 SMA (4H) after initial entry and indicators remain bullish.
• Move SL: Once price reaches TP1, move stop-loss to breakeven (initial entry).
• Partial take-profit: Secure partial profits at TP1 and TP2 to lock in gains while letting the remaining position run toward TP3.
Example Position Plan:
• Entry: 3.67 - 3.71
• SL: 3.50 (conservative)
• TP1: 4.00 (+8%)
• TP2: 4.14 - 4.20 (+12%)
• TP3: 4.31 (+16.5%)
Additional Notes:
• Risk-to-Reward Ratios (R:R):
• R:R for TP1: ~2:1
• R:R for TP3: ~3.5:1
• Avoid Premature Entries:
• If the price continues below 3.54 without bullish confirmation, wait for a potential re-entry at 3.29 or reassess the structure for further downside.
Summary:
• The overall bias is bullish, but the pullback phase suggests waiting for confirmation signals before entering. Key zones around 3.67 - 3.71 and 3.54 - 3.59 are potential support levels for re-entry, while resistance levels 4.00, 4.14, and 4.31 serve as profit targets. Monitor volume-based indicators (OBV, Chaikin) and trend indicators (MACD, RSI) for validation before entering a long position.
