Natural gas $1.54 - $1.56 - watch that levelNatural gas has been shorted by several hedge funds including Citadel and AQR. It still has approximately 7-10% down price action to go from here. It is NOT safe to long, because natural gas has associated geopolitical risk. Fundamental reasons > technical analysis for this commodity. Unfortunately, it means natural gas can also go BELOW $1.50 (highly possible) given the geopolitical tensions between EU, Russia and the US. Thus, one has to be patient before longing natural gas, as there is high liquidation risk.
NGSUSD trade ideas
Sharp corrective more probable?Dear Friends,
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Finding resistance by Price and RSII am analysising a bull run from 1.8 - 1.9 level. As its a demand area of monthly candle and rsi 40 support. Both are comming together. So my point of view is heavy buying may occur. As from monday usa weather is also falling more. And such fall of commodities affect global economy, biden administration also send for inquiry about the Gas price.
Natgas Down ChannelThe price recently broke upward from a downtrending channel. However, considering the strong bearish momentum on a higher timeframe, my current bias leans towards a bearish outlook. To assess the strength of the channel breakout, I've applied Fibonacci retracement, with particular attention on the 0.618 retracement level. Any potential shift in my bias will be contingent on the price's behavior around this level. I rely on reading candlestick patterns within significant areas to gain clarity and make informed trading decisions.
Natural Gas / XNG Porjection Natural Gas prices traded near the July 2020 low and also the same low placed in March 2016. But the Point of interest is that the price rebounds from that level, so it's a good time to initiate long positions but partially till 1.50. Its long-term setup holds it .it could be the best trade of 2024 good luck.
Natural Gas - looking for buyingDear traders,
Id like to share this idea in order to take long positions, basically the price is in 2$ quite sicological level, actually it seems that is looking for a support.
1,8- 2$ is is a good price range to look for buying opportunities.
Additionally RSI is clearly oversold and prices already went down quite aggressive.
best,
Natural Gas, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for Natural Gas on 4h chart.
There have been no changes since the last update.
sub-wave 5 of wave C may already be completed.
If the assumption of this scenario is correct, Upper-degree wave (c) will be started. I think Sub-waves of wave (c) will form a five-wave Impulse.
Last time my idea.
■Feb 1, 2024. Short-term analysis.
■Jan 30, 2024. Short-term analysis.
NatGas UpdateNatGas has finally reached what appears to be a local bottom. As shown on the chart, single abc zigzags can form a triangle, but abc can also start an abc flat.
Considering the depth of the retracement, this unlikely to mark the end of the correction.
We'll be monitoring for more cues. If the price rises shaping abc zigzag, the triangle will become more likely. If the increase is in complicated wxy, we are most likely in wave B of (a)(b)(c) flat (green).
If the price continues to decline, we will pull the brakes and reassess.
NatGas Medium Term The chart's key message is that we are likely to be in a large block of corrective waves until about April.
It is possible that this will be wave (B) or even (2), followed by sharp impulse wave (C) or (3).
However, it is equally feasible that we will continue to see-saw movements, forming a contracting diagonal (C) in the black scenario.
An alternative bearish count with decline to lower lows is possible yet less likely. I will introduce it in the next update.
Natural Gas, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for Natural Gas on 12h chart.
There have been no changes since the last update.
I think we are on sub-wave 5 of wave C.
If the assumption of this scenario is correct, Sub-wave 5 will be completed soon, and Upper-degree wave (c) will be started.
Last time my idea.
■Jan 30, 2024. Short-term analysis.
Natural Gas Prices Recover from 3.5-year LowsNatural Gas Prices Recover from 3.5-year Lows
As the chart shows, the price of XNG fell below 2.040 on January 31 for the first time since August 2020. This was facilitated by:
→ seasonal trend, because towards the end of winter the price of natural gas tends to fall;
→ weather data. Temperatures could remain above average and snowfall amounts will decrease across North America, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center and AccuWeather.
However, the chart shows signs of increased demand:
→ the RSI indicator forms divergence;
→ the bears were unable to reach the lower boundary (shown on the chart) of the downward channel.
Signs of increased demand could come from short covering after the XNG price fell by more than 25% this year, as well as sentiment ahead of the release of news on gas reserves (today at 18:30 GMT+3).
It is possible that the news release will provoke even greater demand activity, and the XNG price will reach the median line of the shown channel.
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Natural GAs bulls defending the lowsNat gas closed positively today in a weak market.
The importance of this close is it was a close above yesterdays high. Showing some potential near term momentum .
If Nat Gas can closes above the resistance trendline we could see a retrace to $2.50.
Looking for a weekly bottoming tail on Nat gas to confirm a local bottom.
Natural Gas, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for Natural Gas on 1D chart.
I think we are on sub-wave (b) of wave B.
Sub-wave (b) may be pulled back to sub-wave (a)'s Fibo level 78.6 to 90% or it may already be completed too.
If the assumption of this scenario is correct, Sub-wave(b) will be completed soon, and Sub-wave (c) will be started.
Sub-waves of wave (c) will form a five-wave Impulse or Diagonal.