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NORWEGIAN KRONE / EURO

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NOKEUR trade ideas

EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Long-term triangle dominatesThe EUR/NOK exchange rate has been constrained by a descending triangle which was formed in November, 2017. After testing the upper boundary of this long-term pattern early in May, the common European currency began depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart, thus reaching its bottom boundary at 9.47, likewise reinforced by the monthly S2, mid-yesterday. It is likely that some downward pressure still prevails during the remaining part of this week, given that the pair might be pressured lower by the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-day SMAs near 9.60. However, the general price direction should nevertheless remain upwards in line with the prevailing triangle pattern, with its upper boundary being located at 9.65.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bounded in bearish patternsThe movement of EUR/NOK has been bounded in several patterns. Following a two-week period of appreciation, the pair bounced off the upper boundary of the senior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 9.70 and formed a new wave downwards. This movement has been relatively flat, as the Euro has since remained trading near the senior channel. By mid-today, the pair was testing the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibo line at 9.61. The current positioning of the pair suggests that it should decline both in the short and medium term. The nearest target is the bottom boundary of the junior channel and the 61.8% Fibo at 9.52, while a downward-sloping trend-line circa 9.42 could be targeted within the following two weeks. The 9.60 area still needs to be breached to confirm this scenario. Conversely, a breakout of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 9.63 is likely to result in a re-test of the senior channel circa 9.68.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
NOK'D DOWNCurrent levels of EUR/NOK could offer interesting selling opportunities. NOK should outperform EUR in the coming weeks and months on the back of growing policy divergence between the Norges Bank’s policy outlook and the ECB’s, which is reflected in an increasingly negative 2Y EUR-NOK rate spread. The divergence could intensify as both banks start to cautiously normalise their policies. Investors may continue to see NOK as a higher beta proxy for the EUR, as NOK tends to outperform when the EUR is supported. EUR/NOK could see 9.40 by the middle of the year. However, depending on incoming data, an undershoot cannot be excluded. Credit to Credit Agricole Investment Bank
Short
by itzbert
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bullish in medium termAfter bouncing off the senior channel on January 29, the common European currency began a new up-wave and formed an ascending channel along the way. The rate tested this junior pattern two weeks ago prior to edging lower down to the 6.68 area where it is trading today. A closer look at the pair’s previous movement demonstrates that the Euro has been successful at respecting channels. Thus, it is likely that the aforementioned junior channel is able to constrain the rate next week, as well. A possible target for the following sessions could be the upper boundary of a three-month channel in the 9.76/78 territory. The rate’s subsequent movement is likewise expected northwards in line with the senior channel. On the other hand, if the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 9.6710 do not hold, the pair might be poised for a fall down to the senior channel circa 9.60/62.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 4H Chart: Surge in sight The Euro began weakening against the Norwegian Krone after reaching the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel located at the nine-year high of 9.9880. The pair reached a one-year up-trend marked with the dotted line late in January and subsequently began surging in a steep upward movement. The pair was testing the 23.60% Fibo retracement (low and high at 8.7883 and 9.9949, respectively) and the 200-period SMA circa 9.70 today. The current positioning of the pair suggests that the Euro might be due for a slight decline down to the 55– and 100-period SMAs and the trend-line during the following trading sessions prior to breaching the upper boundary of the aforementioned resistance area and accelerating towards the 9.90 mark.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690