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NORWEGIAN KRONE / EURO

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NOKEUR trade ideas

EURNOK after Norges Bank rate cutNorwegian krone sold off heavyly after Norges Bank decided to cut rates by 0,25% to 1,25%. It was fairly suprising move but weaker oil is weighing on Norwegian economy and it seems that the central bank does not want to take any unnecessary risks. Most likely, the highs around 9.13 will not survive and we'll see at least a spike to take out some stops. Capital Properties FX announces „The Santa Deal“ us3.campaign-archive2.com Come and join us!
by capitalpropertiesfx
EURNOK - Still has a chance to attempt a break lowerThis pair has been a bit tricky recently. In fact we can clearly see it is not trending at moment. Daily: Pull back after the sharp spike, followed by a wider range top consolidation. In terms of Ichimoku it has becoming neutral as Future Kumo starts overshade Price and Chikou Span loosing open space, getting close to Price candles again. MACD is bearish, but DMI still bullish. I think we may see a few more days of "sideaway" moves before a clear directional move. Lower Key levels are 8,4250 and 8,3900. Upper key level is 8,5450. As I think Oil is poised to a correction from recent selloff, EURNOK will likely behave as a proxy, and has chance to finally break lower. Btw in recent weeks all macro datas came out from Norway as better than expected, especially GDP and Mainland GDB prints yesterday. I still believe that NOK is the cheapest G10 ccy, and somehow I do not agree it should be the second worse performer this year after JPY. I mean c'mon, you can not even compare the two countries' performance and characteristics. 4 Hrs: Noise within the range. Price is still in the Kumo, what's more Tenkan and Kijun are in trhe Kumo too and ard same level as Senkou A and Senkou B. This all mean it is still absolutely neutral. Right now Price is crossing back below Kijun Sen and DMI is actualy turning to bearish again, but we still don't have a clear direction. As ROC indicators are still pointing down, I resold some this morning again at 8,48, but the real sell should hapen with a clear break below the 8,42-8,4250 key resistance area. Stay focused as when the clear break happens, it will have an excellent risk reward to hold short position.
Short
by Kumowizard
3
EURNOK - Sell after Kijun and Kumo retestNow we have a firming sell signal. After testing the Kijun Sen and the Kumo we have a nice bearish candle, and the trend may break finally. Tgt is 8,2950-8,3000 The other reason to put on this chart is to show some simple new script I placed on ROC indicator. Sometimes I find Slow Stoch less reliable and giving some false or confusing signals on the 4 Hrs time frame, so I try to replace it with this ROC combo. Upper panel is 71 period ROC vs its 76 period EMA, the lower panel is 91 period ROC vs its 58 period EMA. Basic rule is that you can take trade signals in a direction when both ROC/EMA stays same way and you have a Tenkan/Kijun cross too. You can still decide wether you take weak Tenkan/Kijun signals, or if you wait for further confirmation or stronger signal, like a Kumo breakout. Still, if you had long, when ROCs crossed their EMAs and Tenkan crossed back below Kijun, it was a signal for decreasing momentum and to reduce/close bullish position. The importance of the "zero" line is the same, when ROC is below the momentum is increasing bearish, when it is above, then increasing bullish. This simple strategy is being tested, I hope it will give even better indication about momentum changes than Slow Stoch itself. Don't forget, the main trading strategy will be still based on Ichimoku system.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
Comeback for EURNOK?The NOK has depreciated rapidly in the past week on the back of weaker data and falling oil prices. The market is now pricing in a roughly 50/50 chance of Norges Bank cutting its policy rate at the December meeting. All things are possible, but this seems over the top. The NOK is much weaker than Norges Bank assumed in September and banks have cut their mortgage rates. On the other hand, global interest rates have fallen and growth has been slightly weaker than expected. On balance, though, Norges Bank would need to revise down its growth projections for mainland GDP next year from 2.25% in September towards 1% for current market expectations to be justified and we think that is really pushing it. With inflation close to target, house prices rising and unemployment largely unchanged, it also seems unlikely that Norges Bank will be proactive and cut interest rates in anticipation. The slide in the NOK therefore seems to be an overreaction. Trading Idea: Short on bounces up against 8.48-8.55 with a target price of 8,15. Stop loss if we close above 8.55 on weekly timeframe.
Short
by ACROFX
EURNOK - Is this the big "come back"?Despite all the very strong fundamentals, NOK has been beaten badly during last few weeks... just because some considered this pair as a perfect proxy for collapsing Oil. Well, despite Norway has its major income from Oil production and export, I don't think it was so reasonable to hit this ccy that much, while for example CAD was rather stable. Weekly (right panel): What was very important for last week, to avoid a major horizontal break of 8,5450-8,5550 support area until weekend. EURNOK spiked at extreme 8,67, but within two days it dropped sharply back below the Key support, and resulted in a huge hanging man candle. From this we can expect a pull back down to the weekly Kumo, but until Price is above the cloud and the trendline (8,20 will be the most important level), the picture is still bullish biased. Daily: Extreme moves, extreme ATR (volatility), which will likely stay high. MACD and Slow Stoch sell signals together, Price is just attacking the secunder bullish trendline and Kijun Sen. Whenever it manages to break, the move will continue down to next key level at 8,29. 4 Hrs: Price is about to break trend and Kumo, also DMI is giving a bearish signal. It will be a good counter trend short from now, but given the oversold Slow Stoch, first I'd really like to see the break, second I'd would wait for some pullbacks to 8,45+ leves to enter in case. As I said, volatility is very high, so adjust your trading size and stops accordingly.
Short
by Kumowizard
1
EURNOK - Triple topThe weekly shows a very bearish formation at 8.5. The impulse is still green, but using the daily, I would say it's time to short Now looking at the daily, it's time to play in anticipation. Look at the candle that formed two days ago, that kangaroo tail. It is very bearish. Looking back on the chart, the accuracy of candlesticks is not great, but considering where this kangaroo tail is, I believe a short bet should be taken. I have closed my remaining position (entry in the linked chart section) and I have gone short, with a small position. I will add once the weekly impulse becomes blue. As for targets, well I believe the least we'll see is 8.0. The question is if this pair can go below that. My trade plan is to keep adding to my short, and once we get close to 8.0, I will start taking profits, and leave maximum 50% on the table. If I will see a buying signal developing there, I will not hesitate to go long. If it breaks, I will consider adding back to my short. Let's wait for 8.0!
Short
by vlad.adrian
4
EURNOK - Some pull back is possible from Key ResistanceI have been chasing EURNOK almost whole year, sometimes with more luck, sometimes with no luck. In fact it is trading in an extremely wide range. Daily: Is it a similar pattern to the one seen in July? Spike to 8,50 area, but in closing the daily candle is a huge pinbar. Blow up followed by few days zig-zag, with bulls trying to force it up, then finally down massively again in the range (bulls' capitulation). I wonder if it will be the same this time or not. Anyway, I don't like this short NOK because of Oil is dropping idea. Then why CADNOK is still going up? Norway is the only real AAA rated country left. They have no debt at all, but has huge reserves. Anyway Ichimoku is bullish now,maybe Slow Stoch is some indication for a possible pull back. But with major shorts we have to wait minimum until Kijun Sen picks up, like it did in August. 4 Hrs: Setup is still rather bullish, but Tenkan/Kijun made a weak bearish cross, Senkou B is flattenning out and Chikou Span hit Price wall. Slow Stoch has some negative divergence and is crossing down again. Price is in between Tenkan and Kijun. I think from this setup we can see a pull back to short term equilibrium, or to 100 WMA and the trendline, so to appr. 8,30-8,31. If you check this 8,30-8,31 level on daily chart, that is/will be the level of Kijun Sen and Senkou B, so a retest there is not impossible. What happens nex, that we don't know. I will give you updates in time. Trade idea: Sell 0,5 trade unit, stop at 8,4250-8,4300, or depending on your loss tolerance and money management strategy. Counter trend trade in larger position size is recommended only in case of a bearish Kumo breakout, or at break of 100 WMA and trendline.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Still sideaway, with bearish biasDaily: Looked like, but finally couldn't close below the trendline. Some blame the drop of Oil for keeping NOK still moving sideaway and let it gain more power. I think it is rather the positionning, or lack of positionning what causes this annoying consolidation. Price is still trading within a triangle. It is below the Kumo, retested Kijun Sen and the Kumo. Tenkan is still below Kijun, but both a bit flat. Future Kumo lines flat. MACD, DMI and Slow Stoch don't give us sufficient information right now. Well, in fact they do give information: that is this mkt is not trending, but consolidating! Important levels are: 8,2050 / 8,2600 on the top side, 8,1550 and 8,1000 on the lower side. One more interesting observation is if during last 5 months the price action has been building a major Head and Shoulders formation? What's more, it looks like a double top within the Head! Really interesting formation I must say. On a break down from this the measured tgt comes to ard 7,8000 - 7,8500. I still prefer holding startegic shorts in this cross, with not yet much leverage though.
Short
by Kumowizard
11
EURNOK - Double bottom at supportI have posted a chart a while back saying that EURNOK is still in an uptrend, you can find the chart in the related section, and the weekly still looks bullish today, as the double top with a bearish divergence looks like it finished playing out The daily shows a double bottom at a support zone, with a class B bullish divergence on the MACD lines and histogram. I expect to see this pair at 8.5 in a few weeks, and I will continue adding to my long position taken 5 days ago.
Long
by vlad.adrian
8
EURNOK - ready for another test of recents lows?Since July this year, the trend in EURNOK has been on the downside with lower highs and lower lows. However, the pair has managed to bounce off 8.10 level each time and is now testing short term horizontal resistance around 8.20. If break and close above this resistance (8.20), we might see 8.24/8.25 level, before recent peak just above 8.30/8.32. Furthermore, with weak fundamentals in Europe, we should see overall weakness in EUR, which again supports a stronger NOK. We want to add 1/3 of wanted position at current level (8.1950+) and add more if/when we see 8.24/8.25 with a stop loss if we close above 8.28 on daily basis. A possible trigger for Norwegian Krone this week is CPI numbers for September upcoming friday due 10:00 CET. Safe trading!
Short
by ACROFX
EURNOK - Sell more, it will likely break downAs I wrote in my other post (linked below) I rather buy NOK (the ccy of the only real AAA rated country) vs the EUR at current levels, than adding or re-enterring USD longs for example. Technical picture: Daily: Yesterday we had Kijun Sen retest with a small body red hanging candle. Today we have a massive bearish candle so far. Break of the long term daily and also weekly trend? At least penetrated. We will also have a STRONG Bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross today. Conservative Ichimoku traders normally sell the closing at this signal. Chikou Span is again below price candles and as soon as the long awaited 8,10 key level goes, we'll have only "three" things left to do: Sell more / Sit and wait / Sell more on spikes staying with the trend 4 Hrs: Honestly I should have posted this analyses a lot earlier, as I saw the opportunity already yesterday, ok, confirmation came this morning. We had basically a retest to the 100 WMA and to the thick Kumo, which together were likely a good support for bears. The break back below 8,17 today was a confirmation signal. Now DMI is bearish with increasing ADX. Try to sell any pull backs to ard 8,15.
Short
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Price reached equilibrium at KumoSince my last post the counter trend idea worked well. Now it's time to start think about taking profit on counter longs and consider re-enterring shorts again. Daily: Price reached a longer term equilibrium level ard 8,30, it is right at the Kumo, which we have to assume as resistance for further bullish moves. Note that the Kumo is not thick, so we can not exclude a spike above. DMI is bullish, but with no real ADX pickup. MACD is bullish, but seems histogram starts decreasing again. Slow Stoch is overbought and turning down. Tenkan and Kijun stay together below the price with almost a weak bullish cross. The future cloud is overshades Price but cloud components still point down. Chikou is at Price candles. All in all from here the possibility of a dip to 8,20 is higher than the chance for any further bullish gains. 4 Hrs: Counter trend intact, but ADX reached above 60, with DMI lines not widenning further. Lower supports are: 8,2470, and most importantly 8,2050. The second support is in line with daily Tenkan and Kijun Sen, so for short term that has to be considered as a stronger key level. Trade idea: Short 0,5 or may 1 trade unit in 8,2900-8,3000 range. Initial tgt is 8,2050. Initial stop is 8,3375. In case Price breaks below the importnt 8,20 again, the position will have to be sized up massively, as in that case price action may get even more bearish, and with a final break of the long term trendline and horizontal support ard 8,10 a long lasting bearish move can develop. p.s.: Norges Bank rate setting meeting is due tomorrow, comments will cause sharp move in Price. Of course it can be in any direction, that's why we always use a stop :-). Recent macro figures from Norway have been improving, with most of the time better than expected numbers published. Fundamentally I think NOK is the most undervalued G10 currency, but as usual, technicals matter first.
Short
by Kumowizard
3
EURNOK - In a corrective periodNorway's CPI published today was in line with mkt expectations at 2,1 % YoY (although core CPI MoM was a bit lower) Daily: As I have written in my previous post the major bullish trendline and horizontal resistance held well for now and Price started to correct towards Kijun Sen. MACD and Slow Stoch are both Bullish now, but the Ichimoku setup is bearish. However for a major bearish trend acceleration this 8,0940 - 8,1000 resistance zone. Supports are 8,2550 (Kijun Sen) and 8,3200 (Senkou B) equilibrium. 4 Hrs: This "bullish" counter trend (correction) may develop a bit further. On this lower time frame it is a Buy now. Strategy: As for me always the higher time frame matters more, I'd rather look for sell signals. We can wait for a Slow Stoch bearish cross from overbought territory, after Price also reached some higher support level, or look for the next bearish Kumo break on 4 Hrs. The other option is to sell the daily resistance break. Whichever comes first. But for now it looks like we'll still have quite a few days until we get any of these possible sell signals. Watch and wait!
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Consolidation or correction starts.Daily: There is a strategic bearish Ichimoku setup, which means we will have to look for sell on spikes. However it seems EUR is recovering a bit on all crosses, so likely the 8,0940 trend and horizontal support will hold for now on EURNOK too. MACD lines closed in, may give a bullish signal on next spike. Slow Stoch has been oversold now for some time. 4 Hrs: Bearish momentum lost now on DMI-ADX. rice started to consolidate. 8,1620 is upper support. Watch if the trendline breaks. Now we'll have equal chance for a break up or for a further break down after some consolidation. Strategy: Counter trend trade not yet recommended until price is below 8,1650 and until we see some Ichimoku buy signals on this time frame, but it is time to fully take profit on shorts. Look for sell signals to re-enter short positions either above 8,20 (e.g. at daily Kijun Sen retest) or in case of the trendline break, which one comes earlier.
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Watch for a possible swing Long entryDaily: Ichimoku likely started to develop a medium to long term strategic short bias, but as I wrote in my last post, by now Price has reached a key support/resistance zone, and also the longer term bullish trendline is close. MACD and Slow Stoch turning up, so it's not impossible that we see some kind of pull back to 8,2350 - 8,2700 levels. 4 Hrs: Consolidation below Kumo. DMI zig-zag, ADX dropping, so the bearish momentum is lost for now. Tenkan and Kijun are flat, Chikou Span hit Price candles. The trendline matches the 100 WMA and the Kumo bottom. Slow Stoch rather a buy with positive divergence to flat price action. Key level to enter counter trend long (and final stop for those who are still short) is 8,1865. p.s.: the more pairs I look at against the EUR, the most I have the feeling that we will see some EUR recovery during next week. Not sure, but chance is increasing.
Long
by Kumowizard
EURNOK - Enters key support zone close to bullish trendlineIn the long run I am rather bearish for EURNOK, I think NOK will perform well against EUR later this year and likely next year too. I've been short for about three weeks now, but as it's getting oversold and enterring a key support zone, also getting close to long term trend line, it is time to take profit. (anyway, my short Put options have maturity this week, so most of my positions will be closed through options excersise). Hopefully we'll have better short entry levels higher again. Daily: Bearish Ichimoku setup is still valid, ADX is climbing, so long term bearish bias will remain. However Price reaches 8,0950 - 8,1450 support zone, while Slow Stoch has been oversold for some time now. MACD histogram rising a bit too, but not yet any sign of a reversal there. Maybe we can expect some sideaway consolidation here (similar to May-June pattern), later we'll see if it suddenly breaks lower or corrects higher. In both cases I will look to re-sell this pair. 4 Hrs: Not much comment - as you see here again, Ichimoku is one of the most powerful tools for trend followers. While all Ichimoku components are still clearly bearish, ADX is extremely high, which means this Bear has to have some rest. Will it happen with a sideaway consolidation, or maybe with a small counter trend, I don't know of course. We have to watch it carefully.
by Kumowizard