NOKSEK trade ideas
NOK/SEK long term viewFor the past 6 months the pair has been correcting on the Weekly/Monthly chart. So far it made a 3 wave correction, and i am expecting an impulse up to the 0.236 Fib. Will see how the price reacts there, but there are 2 scenarios:
a. we break the corrective structure and go up, or
b. we will have another move down for a 5 wave correction.
Either way, its very probable that we will be going up.
FIY: NOK/SEK has a positive swap so its also a carry trade.
EURSEK: Bullish + CorrelationIf CHFNOK is breakingdown and EURSEK breaking out, SEKNOK should breakdown too. (NOKSEK to go up)
Short NokSek below 1.05Below the last bars low at 1.05, it is suggested to short the pair. Target at 1.0362. Stop loss above the high of the last bar
NOKSEK short risky tradeNOKSEK running on the upper side of a daily channel and RSI show some divergences on H1 and H4. I'd short it at 1.03 with a SL at 1.01382 and TP at 1,015
A basic NOK index shows that it reaches a Weekly Fibo retr. but the risk factor is the fundamental data about NOK released some days ago.
Basic NOK index
Renaissance?I started to follow NOK lately again, as first of all I think it is really undervalued in G10
(well, it has been undervalued and hated for 2 years now), and also because its volatility has become very low. Basically NOK has been trading in a very thin range.
So if we see some short opportunity in EURNOK, why not to examine NOKSEK too?
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup has changed to neutral: Kumo shades price ahead, Price is above Tenkan and Kijun, Tenkan/Kijun is weak bullish. Future Kumo started to tighten. 100wma is also down to 1,0180.
- Lower supp/res level is 0,98, upper resistances are ard 1,02 and 1,0385, finally at 1,08 (major long term trendline)
- EWO has managed to climb back to zero! It has not been here since May/2015!
- Heikin-Ashi weekly candle shows consolidation after bullish run from 0,98 to 1,01. haDelta/SMA3 is above zero line!
Daily:
- Short term trend is bullish!
- Ichimoku setup is bullish biased too, but needs to regain momentum. That would happen with a Price cross above Kijun Sen (1,00). Chikou Span is still above past candles.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision, with possible bullish continuation ahead. In case it prints a green candle and crosses back above Kijun, next target can be 1,02+
- EWO decreased, but still above zero.
Based on the daily chart I think 0,9930-0,9990 is a good risk/reward buy zone.
Initial stop below 0,9880
SEKNOK: Massive carry, and potential long term top in this pair,SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart.
I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart.
I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top. Bearish momentum is evident and we can expect more commitment to come into this pair as time goes by.
Holding shorts in this pair, yields a nice carry because of the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krona's interest rate differential, so I'm sure many will be looking to benefit from it, either trading forward swaps, or by trading currency. (the former seemingly posessing lower risk, but not so easily accesible to most traders unlike the FX cross).
Good luck if taking this trade, remember to keep risk below 1%, and stops above the red line on chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Bullish break - Good risk/reward for LongThe beaten NOK has quite some room to correct, even if it can't reverse strategic bullish for some more time.
Weekly:
- The big picture is bearish, but price retested Kijun during last few weeks. It turned down again 3 weeks ago, but failed to continue bearish and to deliver a lower low.
- Heikin-Ashi turned bullish again, with anouther attempt to cross back above Kijun. haDelta/SMA3 crosses up. haDelt has been building positive divergence for almost a year now!
- EWO is bearish, but value is moving higher.
- Bearish supports and possible retracement levels are: 1,0251 and 1,0420
Daily:
- Initial break above Kumo failed, and price dipped again. However price coudl not make a lower low, instead developed a small bullish trendline. Last friday price attempted another bullish break above Kumo and Kijun Sen. I called my Twitter followers attention for this.
- Heikin-Ashi made a strong bullish reversal from the Kumo cloud, with high momentum. haDelta/SMA3 crosses up and moves above zero line. HA Oscillator switched to bullish.
- EWO back to neutral.
Try to accumulate long in 0,9840-0,9910 area, with initial stop ard 0,9715. Initial target is 1,0250-1,03.
Possible buy opportunity NOKSEKThe pair is currently at the bottom line in a descending corridor. Higher lows established. Buy area at the lows of 0.95. Stop below 0.9450.
Important fundamental factors to track is the oil price, as well as Riksbankene (Swedish Central Banks) actions. Anticipation of actions from them to further weaken the SEK,
Buy NOKSEK in th low 0.97a consolidation wedge is in formation here and should provide plenty of safe opportunities into the end of the year before we break upwards or downwards.
Bullish swing possible to tgt 1,0335Daily:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup
- Heikin Ashi is neutral, shows consolidation as Price moves sideaway. haDelta/SMA3 has some minor possible bullish bias
- Bearish support is at 1,0335
4H:
- Price attempts a bullish Kumo breakout and a break above 100 WMA. Shoul close above 1,0230 for continuation.
- Heikin Ashi gives a bullish signal
If the 4H break proves to be succesful, price can retrace to 1,0335 - 1,04 zone. There we see what comes next.
NOKSEK(H4). Triangle brake_out. Bullish continuation.2 weeks abcde triangle brake_out, (bullish pennant), clearing the minor double top, 200 sma daily(closed above on Friday), projects to AB=CD, at downtrend_line, fib projection.
