GTPL trade ideas
GTPL HATHWAY LTD. Technical Outlook with Elliott wavesThe chart provided utilizes Elliott Wave Theory to analyze the price movements of GTPL HATHWAY LTD . Below is a breakdown of the wave counts and their significance:
Primary Wave Count Labelled in Black
Wave ((1)) in Black (Primary Degree):
- This initial wave is marked from the low in March-2020 to the high Oct-2021.
- It represents the first major upward movement after a prolonged downtrend, indicating a new bullish cycle.
Wave ((2)) in Black (Primary Degree):
- This corrective wave follows Wave ((1)), retracing a portion of the gains made in Wave ((1)).
- It is marked from the high Oct-2021 to the low March-2022.
- Wave ((2)) is typically characterized by a three-wave structure (ABC correction), although it appears to have a complex structure in this case.
Wave ((3)) in Black (Primary Degree):
- The current wave, which is expected to be the most powerful and extended wave.
- It is divided into five smaller waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) within it, in Blue (Intermediate Degree).
Intermediate and Minor Degree Waves
Wave (1) of ((3)) (Intermediate Degree):
- This wave is a smaller degree wave within the primary Wave ((3)).
- It starts from the low of Wave ((2)) and moves up, completing its cycle around the first quarter of 2023.
Wave (2) of ((3)) (Intermediate Degree):
- A corrective wave within the primary Wave ((3)), following the high of Wave (1).
- It retraces some of the gains made in Wave (1).
Wave (3) of ((3)) (Intermediate Degree):
- This wave is in progress and is expected to unfold into five smaller waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v).
Subdivisions as Minor Degree in Red within Intermediate Waves
Wave 1 of (3) (Minor Degree):
- The first sub-wave of the intermediate Wave (3), indicating a small upward movement.
Wave 2 of (3) (Minor Degree):
- A corrective sub-wave following Wave 1, resulting in a minor pullback.
Wave 3 of (3) (Minor Degree):
- Expected to be the most extended and powerful sub-wave within the intermediate Wave (3).
- This wave is likely to push the price significantly higher, followed by wave 4 & wave 5 to finish Wave (3).
Bullish Scenario and Price Targets
Target for Wave 3 (Primary Degree):
- The projected target for Wave 3 is around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which is 353.
Key Levels
- Invalidation Level: 155
- This level serves as a crucial point. If the price drops below 155, it invalidates the current wave count and the bullish scenario for now.
MACD Trend Indicator:
- Already running positive in both Monthly and Daily timeframes.
- Turned upside in Weekly timeframe and is on the verge of a positive crossover.
Trendline Breakout:
A trendline breakout has been observed on the Weekly timeframe.
Moving Averages:
The price has closed above the 50EMA, 100EMA, and 200EMA in both Weekly and Monthly timeframes.
Bullish Divergences:
Bullish divergences are aligned on both Weekly and Daily timeframes.
Support and Resistance:
The price is taking support at the 20SMA mid Bollinger Band in the Monthly timeframe.
The stock is attempting to close above the Weekly 20 SMA, which has not been achieved yet.
Conclusion
The detailed wave count analysis suggests that "GTPL HATHWAY LTD" is currently in the early stages of a primary Wave 3, which is typically the strongest and most extended wave in Elliott Wave Theory. The intermediate and minor degree waves within this primary wave indicate a structured and progressive upward movement, supported by various technical indicators. The primary target is set at 353, with an invalidation level at 155. If the price breaks below the invalidation level of 155, it indicates that we are still in Wave (2) of the Blue Intermediate Degree. Consequently, we would need to wait for the start of Wave 1 of (3). In this scenario, the new invalidation level would be 93.75.
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Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
In-Depth Analysis of GTPL (NSE: GTPL)Technical Perspective:
1. Support and Trend Analysis:
The weekly chart of GTPL is exhibiting a notable technical setup. The recent candle reflects a Breakout Retest of a Falling Trendline, a bullish signal indicating a potential shift in sentiment. This suggests a possible end to the preceding downtrend.
2. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is visible on the chart, adding a layer of bullish confirmation. This reversal pattern, when combined with the Breakout Retest, strengthens the case for a potential upward move.
3. Breakout Level Validation:
The Breakout Retest at the Falling Trendline emphasizes the significance of this level. The successful retest indicates that the prior resistance has transformed into support, reinforcing the potential for an upward trajectory.
Trade Strategy:
1. Entry:
Consider initiating a long position at the current market price (CMP) of 195.95. The rationale behind this entry is the Breakout Retest, suggesting a transition from a bearish phase to a potentially bullish one.
2. Stop Loss Placement:
Implement a well-defined stop loss at 148. This level is strategically chosen to allow for minor price fluctuations while acting as a barrier against significant downside risk. It aligns with the concept of prudent risk management.
3. Target Setting:
Set a target at 248, reflecting the potential upside derived from the Breakout Retest and the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. This level is selected based on the technical dynamics observed in the chart.
Risk Factors and Considerations:
1. Market Conditions:
Acknowledge that broader market conditions can influence the outcome of individual stock patterns. Stay attuned to market trends and events that may impact GTPL.
2. Risk-Reward Ratio:
Evaluate the risk-reward ratio of the trade. Confirm that the potential reward justifies the assumed risk, aligning with the principle of maintaining a favorable risk-reward profile.
3. Continuous Monitoring:
Regularly monitor the trade for any changes in the technical setup or unexpected market developments. Be prepared to adjust the strategy if needed based on evolving conditions.
Conclusion:
The technical analysis indicates a promising opportunity in GTPL, marked by the Breakout Retest and the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. While the setup looks favorable, it's essential to approach the trade with a comprehensive understanding of risk and to remain vigilant for any changes in the technical dynamics. Trading involves uncertainties, and a disciplined approach is crucial for managing risks effectively.
GTPL HATHWAY A simple research for education in trading
Breakout trading implementation:
1. **Identifying New Trends:** Breakout trading helps traders identify the beginning of new trends by focusing on price levels where an asset breaks out of its historical trading range.
2. **Volatility Indicator:** Breakouts often occur when there's increased volatility in the market. Monitoring breakouts can provide insights into shifts in market sentiment and potential price movements.
3. **Entry Points:** Breakout points serve as potential entry points for traders looking to ride the momentum of a newly established trend. Buying on a breakout can capture the early stages of a price movement.
4. **Confirmation of Strength:** Successful breakouts indicate the strength of a trend. If an asset breaks out with high volume and follows through with sustained price movement, it suggests a strong trend in that direction.
5. **Avoiding False Signals:** Breakout strategies often include using indicators or confirmation signals to avoid false breakouts. This can enhance the accuracy of trade decisions.
6. **Defined Risk and Reward:** Breakout trading allows for setting clear stop-loss levels below the breakout point, which helps manage risk. Traders can also calculate potential profits based on the distance between the breakout point and a projected target.
7. **Adaptable to Various Markets:** Breakout trading can be applied to various markets, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The concept remains consistent across different assets.
8. **Flexibility:** Traders can adapt breakout strategies to their preferred timeframes, whether they are day traders, swing traders, or long-term investors.
9. **Liquidity Opportunities:** Breakout points are often associated with increased trading volume, which can provide better liquidity for executing trades.
10. **Risk vs. Reward Assessment:** Traders can evaluate the potential risk of a trade (stop-loss) against the potential reward (target price), aiding in decision-making and portfolio management.
11. **Psychological Advantage:** Successful breakout trades can boost a trader's confidence and discipline, reinforcing the effectiveness of their strategy.
12. **Market Events:** Breakouts can occur around significant market events such as earnings reports, economic data releases, or geopolitical developments, offering traders opportunities to capitalize on sudden price movements.
Remember, while breakout trading offers potential advantages, it also carries risks. False breakouts and market reversals can lead to losses. Successful implementation requires a solid understanding of technical analysis, risk management, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.