NIFTY 50 at a Crossroad: Bullish or Bearish Path Ahead?NIFTY 50 is currently trading at 22,082.65 , facing crucial support and resistance levels. Based on technical analysis, two possible scenarios are emerging:
Bullish Case : If NIFTY breaks above 24,050 , it could see a strong uptrend, targeting 26,277 , 28,052 , and ultimately 31,996 in the long term.
Bearish Case : A breakdown below 20,285 may lead to a further decline towards 18,837 , 17,735 , and possibly 15,007 , testing previous long-term supports.
Reasons for Analysis :
Market Structure : NIFTY is in a corrective phase after a significant uptrend.
Key Levels : Identified historical support & resistance zones.
Volatility & Sentiment : Uncertain macroeconomic conditions and global market movements.
Trend Confirmation Needed : A breakout or breakdown will determine the next big move.
Conclusion
Traders should monitor 24,050 (resistance) and 20,285 (support) for confirmation of either trend. Stay cautious and manage risk accordingly! 🚀📉
NIFTY trade ideas
levels to watch out I’ve been bearish on the market since last year, constantly warning about an impending correction. While it seems we've moved past the initial anxiety phase, retail investors are still in denial. Many are clinging to losing positions, hoping for a rally to help them average out their losses. A small 100-200 point uptick might bring temporary relief, but the real panic session is yet to come.
When that moment arrives, it’s likely to trigger a bloodbath, with the market potentially correcting deeper than anticipated, possibly even dipping below the 19,000 mark. That level, in my view, would represent an ideal opportunity for long-term accumulation. Once that floor is reached and the market stabilizes, it could set the stage for a new bull run that breaks through previous highs.
NIFTY : Analysis, levels, Prediction and next aheadThis chart provides an analysis based on Elliott Wave theory (Modified with psychological behavior), showing how the NIFTY 50 index has moved through different phases and highlighting important levels where price actions suggest significant market behavior.
Initially, prices consolidated around 21174-22469, forming the base of a larger upward move referred to as Wave C which was started from 15290 on weekly chart. This phase is significant because it shows the market finding strong support, where buyers stepped in to absorb selling pressure. This type of consolidation often indicates the foundation of a bullish rally. From here, the index began its upward journey, reaching an extended Wave C completion zone between 25,096 and 26,641 which was predicted on 30-Aug-2024 when prices were trading at 25151 .
from this range, prices started to lose strength, which is typical when markets approach exhaustion zones in an extended trend. The selling pressure increased, leading to a reversal.
charts.fyers.in
After hitting this extended resistance zone, the market entered a correction phase, forming Wave A. This phase is marked by a sharp decline, with prices finding support at 23,263, a significant 50% retracement of the previous move. Retracements like this are crucial because they represent a balance point where the market pauses to decide its next move. The 50% retracement is also a key Fibonacci level, often considered a strong resistance / support area. from retracement zone prices started decline again to complete its structure of ABC (Correction wave)
Currently, the index is trading in the first corrective Wave C zone between 22,762 and 23,061. This range is critical because it represents a decision point for the market. If prices hold here, it could signal the end of the correction and the start of a new upward wave. If the market fails to sustain this level, it could move further downward toward the extended correction zone at 21,617–21,893. This area is identified as a potential bottoming-out zone where strong support is expected. Historically, such zones offer good buying opportunities for traders looking for a trend reversal.
However, if prices fail to hold even this extended correction zone and break below 21,174, it would confirm a decisive bearish trend on both weekly and monthly charts. A breakdown like this would suggest a prolonged sideways or negative trend, meaning the market could struggle to recover for some time.
In summary, the chart highlights key areas to watch for potential market reversals. If prices hold above 22,762, there’s a good chance of a bullish recovery, and this could be a buying opportunity. On the other hand, if prices break below this level, the next significant support lies around 21,617–21,893. A failure to hold even that zone would shift the outlook to bearish, signaling the end of the bullish trend and a move toward a deeper correction. Understanding these levels and their significance helps traders and investors make informed decisions about when to enter or exit the market.
NIFTY : Is still Panic Ahead?
In Continuation of my last analysis on 27-Jan-2025
Updated on Daily Charts
Bullish Wave Completion (Wave 1):
The initial upward move saw prices reach a bullish wave completion zone between 21,179 and 22,481. This zone represents the culmination of a strong impulsive wave, with consolidation occurring around the lower band (21,179) after peaking. The support held firm, indicating potential for further upside initially.
Extended Wave C or Wave 3 Profit Booking (Wave 2):
Following the bullish peak, an extended Wave C or Wave 3 profit-booking zone was identified between 22,086 and 22,636. This zone triggered a sharp decline as prices hit the upper band, suggesting overextension and exhaustion of bullish momentum. The drop broke below the support of this zone, setting the stage for a corrective phase.
Correction Wave (Wave 3):
A corrective wave formed, confirmed by a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward move. This retracement level acted as a natural pullback point, with prices stabilizing briefly before resuming their downward trajectory. This wave indicates a healthy correction within the larger trend.
Support and Further Correction (Wave 4):
Prices found temporary support within the correction wave zone of 22,758 - 23,054. However, this support failed, leading to a further decline after the formation of Wave 4 on a minor wave. The chart marks this as part of an extended correction wave completion zone (21,613 - 21,894), where current price action is converging.
Current Market Position and Outlook:
As of the chart's context (March 2023, with the current date being March 4, 2025), prices are trading toward the extended correction zone (21,613 - 21,894). This zone represents a critical level where buyers might step in, but a break below could signal deeper losses.
Short-term resistance is noted around 23,054, while a sustained move below 21,894 could target the Primary Wave 4 bottom at 19,683. This level aligns with a significant long-term support zone, making it a key area to watch for reversal or continuation.
Trading Implications:
Bullish Case: If prices hold above 21,894 and show signs of reversal (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns or increased volume), traders might anticipate a bounce toward 23,054.
Bearish Case: A break below 21,894 with strong momentum could open the door to 19,683, especially if broader market sentiment turns negative.
Risk management is crucial, with stop-losses recommended below key support levels and targets set near resistance zones.
NIFTY 50 – Key Reversal Zones The NIFTY 50 Index is currently trading at 22,142.50, maintaining a marginal gain of +24.90 points (+0.11%) amid ongoing bearish pressure. Despite the small recovery, the overall market structure remains weak, with multiple Break of Structure (BoS) confirmations highlighting a sustained downtrend.
The price action in recent sessions has been heavily influenced by institutional liquidity sweeps. The Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) signals indicate that sellers remain dominant, dragging the price lower into the discount zone, where potential buying interest may emerge.
Key observations:
Multiple Bearish Engulfing (BE) signals appearing at supply zones confirm that institutional sellers are actively offloading positions.
A strong downtrend with Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH) suggests continued weakness unless a major reversal is triggered.
The 90th percentile liquidity sweep on February 28 led to a significant breakdown, taking price deeper into the discount zone, where buyers are attempting to stabilize.
Fibonacci & Equilibrium Levels:
0.236 Level (~22,142.50): Currently acting as short-term support; a breakdown here could accelerate further declines.
0.382 Level (~22,200 - 22,250): This level aligns with the area of interest and may act as a rejection point if price attempts a relief rally.
0.5 Level (~22,300): Considered an equilibrium zone; price needs to reclaim this for bullish momentum to strengthen.
0.618 - 0.786 Levels (~22,500 - 22,600): The premium zone where major supply sits. If price reaches this area, expect strong resistance.
Key Zones & Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Case: If price fails to hold 22,142, the next major support sits near 21,900 - 21,860, which aligns with strong liquidity levels. A move below this would indicate a deeper sell-off.
Bullish Case: If price sustains above 22,142 and clears 22,200, buyers could push it toward the 22,300 - 22,500 range, where a fresh supply test will determine the next trend.
The ongoing bearish trend suggests that any bounce should be viewed cautiously unless structural confirmation occurs. With price still trading within the discount zone, a liquidity grab could occur before a meaningful reversal. Monitoring key Fibonacci retracement levels and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) signals will be crucial for identifying the next major move.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 04/03/2025Gap down opening expected in nifty near the 22050 level. After opening if nifty sustain above 22050 level then only expected upside movement in index. Upside 22300 level will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Major downside fall expected in nifty in case it's starts trading below 22000 level. This downside can goes upto 21700 level.
GLOBAL MARKET shows no RESPITE Following the global cues we can expect NIFTY to open very weak which could be followed by further weakness but the demand zone seems to be eminent hence can lead to volatility so no new longs should be made positional unless signs of REVERSAL is seen so plan your trades accordingly.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 04.03.2025Monday’s session started on a positive note with a gap-up, as Nifty touched a high of 22,261.55 but failed to sustain and dropped to 22,004.70. It later recovered slightly, closing at 22,119.30, losing just 5 points from the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains negative, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is now in oversold territory.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Support: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 22,508.40 - 22,625.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 22,720.30 - 23,049.95
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 23,222 - 23,807.30
Outlook
Nifty has declined 4,272 points (16%) in the last 5 months from its All-Time High of 26,277. The Daily 50 SMA is now oversold, which could lead to some buying near the 22,000 psychological level. However, multiple gaps and fresh supply zones on the Daily and Weekly charts indicate that any upside move is likely to face selling pressure at higher levels. A Sell-on-Rise strategy remains favorable until a strong reversal is confirmed.
#Nifty 4 march trading zone
99% working My trading plan
Gap up open 22170 above & 15m hold after positive trade target 22210,22290
Gap up open 22170 below 15 m not break upside after nigetive trade target 22083,22038, 21958
Gap down open 22082 above 15m hold after positive trade target 22170, 22210
Gap down open 22082 below 15 m not break upside after nigetive trade 22038,21958
📌For education purpose I'm not responsible your trade
More education following me
NIFTY FOR 04 MARCH 20251. Strong Resistance at 22,544.35 (Red Line)
2. Breakout Level at 22,226.10 (Black Line)
If it reclaims 22,226, we might see bullish momentum again.
3. Support Zones:
Support-1: 22,013.70
Support-2: 21,930.70
Strong Support: 21,859.50
If this level breaks, a deeper fall may happen.
Possible Scenarios:
• Bullish: If Nifty crosses above 22,226, it may test 22,317 and 22,429.
• Bearish: If it breaks 21,930, further downside to 21,859 is likely.
Nifty Review & Analysis - DailyPrice Action :
Nifty closed flat of much drama
Technicals:
Nifty opened gap up in line with global cues to find sellers at every high. Nifty made new low around 22000 and bounced back to close flat below all DEMAs
The momentum indicator, RSI - Relative Strength Index closed below 30 suggesting oversold markets.
Support/Resistance
Major Support 21900
Immediate Support 22000
Immediate Resistance 22250
Major Resistance 22400, 22500
Trend:
Overall Trend is Bearish, Sell on Rise
Options Data:
Highest CE OI was at 22500 with highest addition at 22400 - Resistance
Highest PE OI was at 21900, highest Put writing seen at 22000, 21900 - No major support
PCR is 0.7 which indicates Bearishness
Futures Data:
FII Long/Short ratio at 16%/84%
FII Future positions saw little addition in longs +3K with no change in shorts
Nifty Futures price was flat with small addition of OI
Outlook for Next Session:
Nifty is weak Sell on every rise
Approch:
Short at higher levels for target 21500 with SL 22600
My Trades & Positions:
Holding Shorts in March monthly contract from 22850 levels (booked half at 22050 levels)
NIFTY : Intraday Trading levels and Plan for 04-Mar-2025
This analysis provides a comprehensive trading plan for the NIFTY 50 index on March 4, 2025, covering all possible opening scenarios. We will evaluate Gap-Up, Flat, and Gap-Down openings (with gaps of 100+ points) and outline clear action points, key levels, and risk management strategies. This plan is designed to help traders navigate the market with precision and discipline. 📈🔍
🔹 Scenario 1: Gap-Up Opening (100+ points)
If NIFTY 50 opens above 22,142 (a gap of 100+ points from the previous close of 22,042), it signals strong bullish momentum. This opening suggests a potential breakout from the current consolidation range, indicating aggressive buying interest.
If the price sustains above 22,142, it could target the resistance zone of 22,300–22,460. This zone is a profit-booking area where selling pressure may intensify due to historical resistance and recent highs.
If the price faces rejection at 22,300–22,460, a reversal trade could be considered, targeting a pullback to 22,118–22,042 (opening support/consolidation zone and previous close).
Should the price break above 22,460 with strong momentum (e.g., high volume and bullish candlestick patterns), we might see a rally toward 22,600 or higher.
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy on a breakout and retest of 22,142 , targeting 22,300–22,460. Use a stop-loss below 22,042 to manage risk.
✔️ Short if the price rejects 22,300–22,460, aiming for 22,118–22,042. Place a stop-loss above 22,460 to limit potential losses.
Explanation: A Gap-Up opening of 100+ points indicates a potential breakout from the 21,889–21,600 consolidation range. Waiting for a retest of 22,142 confirms bullish intent, while the resistance at 22,300–22,460 acts as a natural profit-taking zone. A rejection at this level could signal a shorting opportunity if bearish momentum resurfaces.
🔹 Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 22,042–22,118)
If NIFTY 50 opens within the range of 22,042–22,118, it suggests a balanced market continuing its consolidation phase with no clear directional bias. This zone acts as a critical opening support/resistance area.
A breakout above 22,118 could drive prices toward 22,300–22,460, signaling bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal.
A breakdown below 22,042 might lead to selling pressure, targeting 21,889 (first buyer’s support) or even 21,613–21,600 (possible bottom-out level).
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy above 22,118 , targeting 22,300–22,460. Use a stop-loss below 22,042 to protect against a false breakout.
✔️ Sell below 22,042 , targeting 21,889 or 21,613–21,600. Set a stop-loss above 22,118 to manage downside risk.
Explanation: A Flat opening within the 22,042–22,118 range indicates the market is still consolidating, a no-trade zone unless a breakout occurs. Traders should wait for clear price action (e.g., strong candlestick patterns or increased volume) to confirm a breakout above 22,118 for a bullish move or a breakdown below 22,042 for a bearish move, avoiding premature entries.
🔹 Scenario 3: Gap-Down Opening (100+ points)
If NIFTY 50 opens below 21,942 (a gap of 100+ points from the previous close of 22,042), it signals bearish sentiment and potential weakness, testing the lower support levels.
Immediate support lies at 21,889 (first buyer’s support). If this holds, a pullback toward 22,042–22,118 could occur.
If 21,889 breaks with strong selling pressure, expect further downside toward 21,613–21,600 (possible bottom-out level for a reversal).
✅ Trade Plan:
✔️ Buy near 21,889 , targeting a pullback to 22,042–22,118. Use a stop-loss below 21,600 to limit risk.
✔️ Short below 21,889 , targeting 21,613–21,600. Place a stop-loss above 21,889 to protect against a quick recovery.
Explanation: A Gap-Down opening of 100+ points suggests continued downward pressure, but support at 21,889 could trigger a rebound if it holds. Waiting for confirmation near 21,889 ensures the price isn’t just oversold, while a break below this level confirms bearish momentum for shorting. The 21,613–21,600 zone is a critical level for a potential reversal if buying interest emerges.
📌 Risk Management Tips for Options Trading 💡
🛑 Always Use a Strict Stop-Loss: Protect your capital by setting stop-loss orders at key support/resistance levels to limit potential losses.
🎯 Take Partial Profits: Lock in gains at intermediate targets (e.g., 22,300 or 21,889) to secure profits while allowing room for further moves.
🕰️ Avoid Overtrading: Stick to the plan and wait for clear price action confirmation—don’t force trades in uncertain conditions.
💰 Use Proper Position Sizing: Risk only a small percentage of your capital (e.g., 1–2%) per trade to ensure longevity in the market.
📌 Summary & Conclusion 🎯
✔️ Bullish Above: 22,118 → Target: 22,300–22,460.
✔️ Bearish Below: 22,042 → Target: 21,889 or 21,613–21,600.
✔️ No Trade Zone: 22,042–22,118 (Wait for a breakout).
Trade with discipline, follow your plan, and prioritize risk management to navigate the NIFTY 50 market effectively on March 4, 2025. 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📉📈
Key Levels & Trading Plan for the Current Market Trend1. Identified Key Levels
Type Price Level (Approx.) Significance
Major Resistance 22,700 - 22,800 Previous support turned resistance; strong rejection possible.
Minor Resistance 22,400 - 22,500 Short-term bounce zone; potential sell-off area.
Current Price Zone 22,100 - 22,200 Market hovering near key support; decision point.
First Major Support 21,800 - 21,900 Next critical level; breakdown could accelerate selling.
Second Major Support 21,500 - 21,600 Deeper demand zone; last line of defense before more downside.
2. Trading Strategies Based on Key Levels
Bearish Continuation Trade (Higher Probability)
• Entry: Look for a pullback to 22,400 - 22,500 for short positions.
• Stop-Loss: Above 22,700 to avoid getting trapped in a fakeout.
• Take-Profit 1: 21,900 - 22,000 (First major support).
• Take-Profit 2: 21,500 (Next strong support).
Bullish Relief Rally (Lower Probability)
• Entry: If price forms a bullish engulfing candle + high volume around 21,800 - 22,000.
• Stop-Loss: Below 21,600 to limit downside risk.
• Take-Profit 1: 22,400 - 22,500 (Short-term bounce area).
• Take-Profit 2: 22,700 (Stronger resistance).
3. Risk Management & Confirmation Signals
• Bearish Confirmation:
• Price rejection at resistance (22,400-22,500).
• Low bullish volume on pullbacks.
• Large red candles breaking support.
• Bullish Confirmation:
• Strong reversal candle at key support.
• Increase in buying volume.
• Break above 22,400 with momentum.
Final Outlook
• Primary Bias: Bearish → Look for short opportunities on pullbacks.
• Secondary Bias: Bullish only if price shows strong reversal near 21,800 - 21,900.
Detailed Forecast of the Market Trend Based on the Chart1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
• The chart clearly shows a strong downtrend forming after a prolonged bullish run.
• Multiple lower highs and lower lows confirm a bearish market structure.
• The market has broken through key support zones, indicating sustained selling pressure.
2. Key Observations
• Change of Character (ChoCH):
• There are multiple ChoCH levels, signaling shifts in market sentiment.
• The first ChoCH near the peak indicated the start of the downtrend.
• The second ChoCH at a support break confirms the bearish continuation.
• Liquidity Zones:
• The price has entered a demand zone but has shown no strong reversal signs yet.
• If buyers step in, a short-term relief bounce may occur.
• However, failure to hold this zone could lead to a deeper price decline.
• Volume Analysis:
• Increasing bearish volume suggests that sellers are still in control.
• Weak bullish attempts indicate a lack of buying strength.
3. Forecast & Scenarios
Bearish Continuation (High Probability)
• If the price stays below the recent support-turned-resistance, expect further downside.
• Next potential support levels:
• 21,800 - 22,000 region (psychological and technical support).
• If broken, 21,500 - 21,600 becomes the next target.
Short-term Relief Rally (Low Probability)
• If bullish volume increases in the demand zone, a pullback towards 22,500 - 22,700 is possible.
• However, strong resistance remains in this region, making it a potential shorting opportunity.
4. Trading Strategy
• For Short Sellers:
• Look for a pullback to resistance and enter short positions.
• Stop-loss above 22,700 to manage risk.
• Targets: 21,800, then 21,500.
• For Long Traders:
• Wait for strong bullish confirmation in the demand zone.
• If price shows bullish engulfing candles + high volume, a short-term bounce trade is possible.
Conclusion
• Overall, the market remains bearish, and any bounces are likely to be short-lived unless major buying volume appears.
• Traders should stay cautious and follow trend-based strategies rather than counter-trend trades.
Final Outlook
• Primary Bias: Bearish → Look for short opportunities on pullbacks.
• Secondary Bias: Bullish only if price shows strong reversal near 21,800 - 21,900.
Nifty 50 Long-Term Outlook: Bullish or Bearish ?NIFTY 50 VIEW :
KEY PONITS AND CONFIRMATIONS :
Monthly - Uptrend ( Higher Low )
Weekly - Take Support at 22500 - 22750
Pattern - Falling Wedge Formed
Indicator - RSI - 30 Level Maintain . Chance to buy
SETUP :
Wait for Pattern Breakout and 23800 Resistance Level.
More details and Level noted the chart .
Thank you , Happy Trading ...
Correction Done?? Some Green candles coming. Here is a quick update.
Watch out this graph. here are few points which is clearly highlighting some upcoming moves in Nifty.
1. Weekly MA 100 is on point to support.
2. as per volume traded, 22000 is strong support.
3. Yellow trend line showing weekly movement. giving hope for some recovery in upcoming days.
4. Please watch out for this high volume area. if it breaks. we fall down to 21600-21000.
Please always use stop loss and trade with your knowledge.
Nifty DiarrheaNothing positive to take the market higher....In a bear phase, good news doesn't have any impact. I have marked the possible areas where nifty could potentially reverse....But its in the red channel now. The green channel has broken, and market may go up to retest the bottom of the green channel...But currently its a sell on rise market till its not....For those who are/have become forced to be long term holders, you can start accumulating in bits and pieces as markets are designed to go up unless something cataclysmic takes place....Indian markets are still overvalued.....DIIs and retailers don't have the strength to propel the market higher, and are just being liquidity for FIIs.....FIIs may return at some point, but one or 2 things have to happen....Valuation should be cheaper for fresh buying and/or Nirmala Thaai should do something about STT and LTCG (which I highly doubt)....For those who are long only strategies, it will take a while for markets to form a bottom and reverse, markets could also remain flat for a long time to form a strong base.....
levels to watch I had anticipated a top and currently hold a short position on the index and most of the 50 stocks at 25,200. The market is now approaching the first target of 21,800. Expect a minor bounce in the short term, likely to trap retail investors. However, if the index closes below 21,800, the downward move is likely to accelerate, targeting 19,200.
Additionally, a deeper correction toward 16,900 remains a possibility and should not be ruled out at this stage.