TCPL PACKAGING LTD S/RSupport and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TCPLPACK trade ideas
TCPL Packaging Limited Triangle Patters Projective GrowthInvestment Analysis Blog Post: TCPL Packaging Limited
Introduction
TCPL Packaging Limited, a prominent player in the packaging industry, has recently released its financial reports, providing valuable insights into the company's performance and future prospects. This analysis will delve into the key financial metrics, growth potential, and strategic focus of TCPL Packaging, helping investors make informed decisions.
Profit and Profit Growth
TCPL Packaging has demonstrated strong profit growth in the recent quarter. Here are the highlights:
- **Profit Before Tax (PBT):** Increased by 22% year-on-year to Rs. 45 crore in Q2, indicating robust financial health.
- **Profit After Tax (PAT):** Reached Rs. 36 crore, showing significant growth and reflecting the company's ability to convert profits into tangible earnings.
- **Cash Profits:** Reported at Rs. 64 crore, highlighting healthy cash flow generation which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding future expansions .
EBITDA and Operational Efficiency
- **EBITDA:** Grew by 18% to Rs. 77 crore, with margins at 17%. This growth reflects effective cost management and operational efficiency, suggesting that the company is optimizing its resources well.
- **EBITDA Margin:** The stable to slightly increasing EBITDA margins around 15-17% in recent years indicate that TCPL Packaging is maintaining its operational efficiency despite market fluctuations .
Future Plans and Growth Potential
TCPL Packaging has several initiatives that promise significant growth potential:
- **Expansion in Southern India:** A new Greenfield facility near Chennai is set to commence operations soon, adding about 750 tonnes of monthly capacity. This is expected to contribute Rs. 70-80 crore in annual revenue initially, with further expansion possibilities.
- **Subsidiary Performance:** The subsidiaries are growing at a high double-digit rate, although there is a need for scaling up profitability. As the subsidiaries grow, improved margins are anticipated.
- **Flexible Packaging:** Despite current underutilization, there are plans for a gradual ramp-up, with full utilization expected within 6-12 months. Future capital expenditures are being considered once full capacity is reached.
- **Recyclable Films:** The facility for recyclable films is fully functional and ramping up utilization, aligning with the company's focus on sustainable solutions.
- **Export Growth:** TCPL Packaging is experiencing strong growth in exports, driven by improved Indian supply chain capabilities, competitive pricing, and established trust with long-term clients across various regions.
- **Capex Plans:** Rs. 100 crore is planned for FY25, primarily for incremental capacity in the carton business, flexible packaging, and strategic land acquisitions. Surplus cash flow may be directed towards debt reduction or growth opportunities through M&A or new business lines .
Strategic Focus
TCPL Packaging is committed to several strategic areas:
- **Innovation and Sustainable Solutions:** The company continues to focus on innovation and sustainable solutions, which is crucial for long-term growth and market relevance.
- **Operational Excellence:** There is a strong emphasis on operational excellence, ensuring that the company maintains high standards in its production processes.
- **Market Share Expansion:** TCPL Packaging aims to expand its market share and deepen customer relationships both domestically and internationally, which is key to sustaining growth .
Financial Insights
Here are some key financial insights:
- **Growth in Net Fixed Assets:** There has been a consistent increase in Net Fixed Assets, indicating significant capital investment in infrastructure and expansion. This grew from Rs. 29,365 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 70,276 crore in 2023-24 .
- **Net Current Assets:** Net Current Assets have shown notable growth, reflecting improved liquidity and working capital management. This increased from Rs. 4,483 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 28,119 crore in 2023-24 .
- **Total Assets:** Total assets have increased significantly from Rs. 28,660 crore to Rs. 100,072 crore, reflecting the company's expansion and asset accumulation.
Funding Structure
- **Shareholders' Funds:** Have grown from Rs. 11,383 crore to Rs. 52,572 crore, showing strong equity growth likely due to retained earnings and possibly new equity infusion.
- **Long Term Loans:** Have increased significantly from Rs. 9,743 crore to Rs. 22,478 crore, indicating reliance on debt for funding growth. However, the debt to equity ratio has decreased to 1.12 in 2023-24, suggesting a move towards a more balanced capital structure.
Revenue and Profitability
- **Sales Turnover:** Has seen a steady rise from Rs. 49,116 crore to Rs. 151,278 crore, showcasing robust revenue growth.
- **EBITDA and PAT:** Both have increased significantly, with EBITDA growing from Rs. 8,200 crore to Rs. 26,200 crore and PAT increasing from Rs. 3,219 crore to Rs. 10,137 crore. This reflects improvements in profitability over time.
Earnings Metrics
- **Earnings Per Share (EPS):** Has increased from Rs. 37.00 in 2014-15 to Rs. 111.39 in 2023-24 and TTM 129.32, indicating growth in per-share earnings.
- **Dividend Per Share (DPS):** Has also increased, showing the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
Financial Ratios
- **ROCE (Return on Capital Employed):** Has varied but settled around 19.86% in 2023-24, indicating a good return on the capital employed.
- **RONW (Return on Net Worth):** Has shown a positive trend, reflecting efficient use of equity.
- **Debt to Equity Ratio:** Has fluctuated but decreased to 1.12 in 2023-24, suggesting a more balanced capital structure.
Quantitative Analysis
- **CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):**
- **Sales Turnover:** Approximately 13.2% from Rs. 49,116 crore in 2014-15 to Rs. 151,278 crore in 2023-24.
- **EBITDA:** Around 13.8% from Rs. 8,200 crore to Rs. 26,200 crore.
- **PAT:** Approximately 13.6% from Rs. 3,219 crore to Rs. 10,137 crore.
Financial Stability and Operational Efficiency
- The increase in both equity and debt shows a strategy of balanced growth, with a slight shift towards reducing debt dependency in recent years.
- Stable to slightly increasing EBITDA margins suggest operational efficiency despite market fluctuations.
- The consistent increase in EPS and DPS indicates a focus on enhancing shareholder value through profitability and dividends.
Conclusion
TCPL Packaging Limited presents a compelling investment case with its strong profit growth, efficient operational management, and robust expansion plans. The company's focus on innovation, sustainable solutions, and operational excellence positions it well for long-term growth. The financial metrics, including revenue growth, EBITDA margins, and profitability, all indicate a healthy and growing business.
For investors looking for a stable yet growth-oriented company in the packaging sector, TCPL Packaging Limited is an attractive option. The company's balanced funding structure, improving financial ratios, and commitment to shareholder returns further enhance its appeal. As the company continues to expand its capacity, deepen its market presence, and focus on sustainable solutions, it is likely to remain a strong performer in the industry.
TCPLPACKNSE:TCPLPACK
One Can Enter Now !
Or Wait for Retest of the Trendline (BO) !
Or wait For better R:R ratio !
Note :
1.One Can Go long with a Strict SL below the Trendline or Swing Low.
2. R:R ratio should be 1 :2 minimum
3. Plan as per your RISK appetite and Money Management.
Disclaimer : You are responsible for your Profits and loss, Shared for Educational purpose
TCPL At a very interesting point where the price can move to any side .. just wait for the confirmation before entering the trade ✌️.
Technicals are amazing
Despite attractive technicals i expect the stock to breakdown further to support levels mentioned (Blue horizontal lines) after rejection from 38.2 Fibonacci levels.
I Will be happy to see your thoughts on this via. Comment your views on this
Note: Just an idea not any recommendation to buy or sell the particular stock.
TCPLPACKTCPL manufactures folding cartons, printed blanks and outers, litho-lamination, plastic cartons, blister packs, and shelf-ready packaging. TCPL has also ventured into the flexible packaging industry, with the capability to produce printed cork-tipping paper, laminates, sleeves, and wrap-around labels.
Market Cap
₹ 1,466 Cr.
Current Price
₹ 1,611
Stock P/E
17.9
Book Value
₹ 437
Debt
₹ 413 Cr.
Pledged percentage
0.00 %
Price to book value
3.69
Int Coverage
3.92
PEG Ratio
2.16
TRADING ABOVE 10 , 21, 63 , 100 , 200 EMA
Breakout and bullish - Expecting 1700 , 1800 , 1926 targets
tcplTCPL Packaging Ltd (TCPL) prides itself on its track record of consistent growth (17.7 per cent) over the last 15 years. It is also one among the 105 listed companies out of over 6,000 that have shown growth every year for the last 10 years. Today TCPL is one of India’s largest manufacturers of folding cartons and stand alone converters of paper boards. It is also a preferred sustainable packaging solutions provider having marquee clients across industries. The global sustainable packaging market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.7 per cent from $281 billion to $469 billion. This is expected to trigger another leg of high growth for the industry.
Consolidation of capacities in favour of environmentally friendly technologies is expected to lower competition. Being one of the larger players with better technology and know-how, the company is well poised to take advantage of this technology transition waiting to happen in the next 10-15 years.
Commissioning of the second manufacturing line in FY22 is expected to double the Flexible Packaging capacity. In its subsidiary TCPL Innofilms, the setting up of a poly-ethylene blown film line are baby steps in this direction. The output finds application not only in-house but also has huge commercial potential
TCPLPACKNSE:TCPLPACK
BUY IF SUSTAIN ABOVE GREEN ZONE
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