Long or short bakeout. What do you suppose. Long or short bakeout. What do you suppose. Fundamentals are mixed. Ivory coast stopped selling cocoa at the same time new crop is developing well. For me it is time funds to take profit and bring the price down for a correction.Shortby ge.uzunov112
Cocoa: Final Surge 🌊Cocoa has now risen more than 26% since the low of the magenta wave (4) and still seems to be dominated by the bulls. We now expect one last surge before the price reaches the high of the magenta wave (5), which shouldn't be too far away, completing the white wave (B). After that, the trend should be down again, starting with the magenta wave (1).by MarketIntel115
COCOA shortsMy analysis favors cocoa shorts in the coming weeks/months for the following reasons: The price of cocoa futures have broken ATH in a parabolic fashion Price is approaching the 5 years R2 Seasonality is bearish in december and after february Lower rates should favor stocks vs commodities All agricultural commodities have retraced quite a lot after reaching their all time highs in the past 2 years. Cocoa should follow the same Shortby John_8-58114
Bullish Cocoa MarketThe billionaire global cocoa market has been steadily rising since the end of last year. As evidence, we can see that in the last 426 days, cocoa has experienced an increase of 80.14% . This surge can be attributed to various factors, such as an increase in the consumption of sweets that use cocoa as a raw material, especially in China. This is evidenced by The Food Institute, which published an article titled "Treat Yourself 2023," confirming a remarkable 9.8% annual increase in chocolate consumption worldwide. Over the past two decades, chocolate consumption has not only increased but has been a consistent trend that is unlikely to change soon, given the lack of expected changes in overall behavior and dietary habits. Therefore, with the continuous rise in consumption, it is likely that demand will continue to outpace supply, potentially leading to an increase in cocoa prices in the coming months and perhaps years. Hence, the bullish trend in cocoa is likely to persist until various issues related to this commodity are addressed. Bullish Cocoa Market - Profit Opportunities As mentioned, we can expect cocoa to increase in value due to rising demand relative to supply. However, this is not the only factor confirming the theory that cocoa will remain bullish for the next few months and possibly years. Several other factors support this theory. Firstly, the biggest risk to the increase in cocoa prices is that 70% of its production is concentrated in Africa, specifically in West Africa. Another risk is that more than half of the world's cocoa production is concentrated in only two countries, namely Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together represent 60% of global supply according to 2020 data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Because of this, the cocoa market becomes vulnerable to any economic, geopolitical, and environmental disturbances occurring in these two countries, especially after the return of geopolitical tensions in the region. This includes the strengthening of coups, civil wars, and clashes of pro-Russian forces, the weakening of French influence in the region that guaranteed peace and security since the colonial era, the power vacuum in the region without a primary or secondary power to dictate the "rules," and the strengthening of groups such as Tuaregs, Jihadists, and others in the West African region. This geopolitical strife creates a vulnerable situation for Ghana and Ivory Coast, and in the event of war, we can expect further shocks to cocoa prices, as seen during the First Ivorian Civil War, where prices rose by 19% in just 30 days, and the Second Ivorian Civil War, where prices increased by 37% in 98 days. The market was not affected even more because the harvests in both wars had already been sold, harvested, and exported, with France ensuring access to the remaining goods through major ports, allowing cocoa to be shipped. Another significant risk to the cocoa market is global warming and sudden temperature fluctuations that endanger cocoa plantations, especially in West Africa, where climatic imbalances pose a threat to the two largest producers in the market. Therefore, despite efforts by both countries to modernize and improve the capacity and security of cocoa farms, such projects are expected to take time due to reasons such as corruption, lack of funds, and a shortage of qualified personnel, considering the managerial incompetence of African governments. Another significant risk, now confirmed, is that due to climate and crop issues, a third global cocoa deficit for the 2023/2024 season is expected by the FAO. In other words, climatic, geopolitical risks, and consumption patterns indicate a high likelihood of cocoa value increase in the coming months and probably years.Longby CherPetitPrince0
Strong resistance - Time to take profits Prediction : I expect COCOA FUTURES price to start a bearish trend after hitting the resistance presented in the pitchfork on the chart. Reasons : - investors may take their profits of the year - currency depreciation of the producers countries vs the Dollar - as interest rates stabilises , investors starting to move to stocks as the fear times of the quantitative tightening may be near an end.Shortby Monstralian2
Cocoa going down.Cocoa going lower cocoa has double topped and is starting to sell off. Cure for higher prices is higher prices and we have seen the higher prices.Shortby Spacetraders1
Tech Plans: Cocoa Futures Extreme RallyHey Traders, This video is a little different to normal but still very relevant. Another example of shorting in market sentiment to the upside. Watch for more.Short03:00by WillSebastianUpdated 4
Short CocoaCocoa is far overbought and is due to fall in the coming months. 12% TP and SL.Shortby AlphaTurtle1
Cocoa: The next step 🪜After a minor consolidation phase in which the price of cocoa stagnated just below the pink trend line, the next step of the magenta wave (5) was completed: a clear breakout above this line. We now expect a larger upward expansion until the magenta five-wave move and thus the superior white wave (B) is completed. After this top, the price should go down again - first with the magenta wave back towards the trendline.Longby MarketIntel1
COCOA 4000 call SELLOFFThere has been an active selloff of the 4000 strike for several days. In other words, the former owner of the option contracts sells off his portfolio. A noteworthy and important point is the fact that this happens in a rising market. In the vast majority of cases, this is a bearish sentiment and reflects a major contract holder's fear of a slowdown or, more likely, a reversal of the current trend. Shortby ClashChartsTeam555
The jury is still out on the impact of El NiñoWeather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia. This is why certain commodities such as cocoa, sugar, soybean oil and grains tend to depict a price positive environment following an El Niño phenomena. So far in 2023 – cocoa, sugar and cotton have been key beneficiaries of the El Niño weather phenomena whilst wheat, corn and soybeans have posted a weaker performance. How is the El Niño evolving? With the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting more than a 95% probability of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter through January - March 2024 , chances are high that we continue to see further weather abnormalities over the coming months. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter1. The main El Niño monitoring metric showed the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July1. The whole ocean (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Artic and Southern Ocean ) was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-year record2. An important aspect of ocean changes is the sea level height. Presently there is a strong ocean sea level rise in the easterly tropical Pacific, a clear sign that El Niño is active3. The changes in the ocean heat content are mainly due to the expansion and rise of the strong subsurface warm pool. This also causes the sea level height to increase, usually associated with warmer waters. Agricultural commodities price response to El Niño will vary The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. This is because the drift in warm water across the Pacific moves’ evaporation and rain such that Southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to receive more precipitation. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar, and grains as discussed in “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?” blog. Cocoa and sugar lead the commodity scoreboard in El Niño ’s slipstream Cocoa has been an important beneficiary of the El Niño. The concentration of supply in West Africa, nearly 70% of global supply4, underlines the outsized impact of the region’s weather patterns on the world’s cocoa supplies and prices. The emerging El Niño is likely to hamper the next main crop that begins in October as it tends to bring dry and hot conditions to West Africa. This comes at a time when heavy rains in West Africa have triggered the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and the spread of Black pod diseases. The diseases alongside the high cost of inputs, have not spared the two leading producers (i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and affected their volume of production5. Despite high cocoa prices, demand evident from cocoa grinding continues to rise in Asia and the US6. Sugar has also benefitted from the emergence of El Niño as lower rainfall in Asia, namely India and Thailand have resulted in lower sugar production. However, we expect further upside for sugar prices to be capped as Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter) is likely to fill the gap. Production in Brazil’s main Centre- South (CS) growing region between the start of the crop year in April and mid-August already amounted to 22.7mn tons, which is up 22% over the same period last year7. What’s more, the sugar mix increased to 51.1% in H1 September, up from 50.7% in H2 August signalling that Brazilian mills continue to favour sugar production over ethanol amidst higher sugar prices5. Extreme weather conditions in China have reduced domestic supplies. China is also planning to release 1.3mn tons of sugar from its reserves, to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices4. Wheat prices stand to benefit as key producers to face the impact of El Niño On the other end of the spectrum, grains (namely wheat, corn and soybeans) continued to struggle as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlined a more bearish outlook for corn while bullish for wheat. The corn harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%8. Moscow’s revocation of the secure grain’s corridor through the Black Sea, alongside the Russian attacks on key infrastructure along the Danube River in Ukraine, have lowered grains exports from Ukraine by 25% over the prior year. Yet wheat prices have fallen sharply this year as Russia’s record crop is enabling it to ship huge volumes to world markets. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has likewise reduced its crop forecast for the region by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Most of Australia is expected to face warm and dry conditions over the next three months9, so further downward revisions are on the cards. Argentinian farmers are also battling with a drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has already warned that the crop in 2023/24 could be impaired if there is no rainfall in the near future. As the prospects for the wheat crop amongst major producer countries are becoming increasingly weak, we expect wheat to benefit from these rising tailwinds. Conclusion There has been a wide divergence within the commodity linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) flows since the start of the year. Agriculture linked ETFs have seen US$458mn worth of outflows while energy linked commodity ETFs raked in US$1.2Bn worth of inflows10. Agriculture linked commodity ETFs likely faced outflows owing to profit taking. We continue to expect plenty of upside in select agricultural commodities as the impact of the El Niño is likely to intensify over the upcoming winter. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.by aneekaguptaWTE3
COCOA Uptrend breakdown vision based on liquidity levelsThe market is favorable to the sellers from August 7 and allowed them to make a small profit. The balance of power is clearly in favor of the bears. A breakdown of the local support level at $3405 will confirm our existing evaluation. We are waiting option market confirmation. Shortby ClashChartsTeamUpdated 2
Cocoa downAs commodities start to going down, and cocoa just made a double top, plus had a huge erection what needs a correction, I will go short.Shortby Kuryakin2
Cocoa: On a diet 🚫🍫With the recent surge in cocoa prices, we’ve observed the completion of the white wave d as forecasted in our primary scenario. Given this development, our projections suggest an impending decline characterized by a magenta five-part wave, targeting $2900. Nonetheless, it's essential to consider a 40% probability that the price might reach a slightly higher peak before initiating the expected descentShortby MarketIntel0
CC1! Cocoa, some juicy findinglooking for some pullback as you can see in the chart looks juicy for a quick short due to quite serious resistance above your comments are more than welcomeby tozamo111
Cocoa outlook improves as El Niño StrengthensCocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023). The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected. The production estimate was lowered by 37,000 to 4.98 million tonnes, while the grinding forecast was revised higher by 45,000 to 5.07million tonnes. The revisions are largely due to Ivory Coast (the world’s largest cocoa producing country) where the crop is set to be 30,000 tonnes lower than the prior forecast, but still 79,000 tonnes higher than last year, resulting in a minor downward revision given the considerable year-on-year shortfall in cocoa arrivals at the ports. On the other hand, 35,000 tonnes more cocoa is set to be ground in Ivory Coast than previously predicted by the ICCO. The higher deficit is likely to push global stocks down to 1.63 million tonnes by the end of the crop year, which equates to a good 32% of annual grinding. The last time the stocks-to-grinding ratio was any lower was 38 years ago. The cocoa price remains well supported against this backdrop. El Niño is now once again a source of concern, as prospects for the new season starting September are not bright due to the threat of dryness. In addition, recent heavy rains have been reported in major producing countries, slowing down mid-crop harvest in top supplier Ivory Coast and elevating fears of disease outbreaks. The front end of the cocoa moved more deeply in contango, with the negative roll yield of -2.5% weighing on performance. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.by aneekaguptaWTE2
Cocoa - SHORT; SELL it here!This is very much in the same boat as Coffee - out of season, increasingly negative fundamentals, etc.. (Now, even cocoa brokers are entertaining each other tall tales, trying to pass the time and in an attempt to reinvigorate the business. Yeah, how could that not work?! ... ;-) A resumption of a U NYSE:D rally, at any point, will put a further lid on this one - much like on coffee. Looking down from here, there is a looong way to go, enough to catch vertigo. This has also been wicking here, something fierce, for some days now!Shortby Nemo_Confidat222
EMA for soft commoditites taco_indThe script uses the ema function to calculate the EMAs based on the previous day's closing prices then uses the plot function to draw lines for each EMA. You can customize the colors and titles of each EMA by adjusting the parameters of the plot function.by Trading-Chihuahua1
CC Cacao: Trade Commodity THIS EasterHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Are you looking to make a trade out of Easter weekend? Look no further than Cocoa futures, or chocolate. Cocoa is a soft commodity that is used to produce chocolate, and it is traded on several global commodity exchanges. One of the most significant exchanges for trading cocoa futures is the ICE Futures US (Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S.). The exchange offers futures contracts for cocoa, which allows investors to speculate on the future price of cocoa beans. The cocoa futures contract on the ICE Futures US is traded under the symbol CC. Each CC contract represents 10 metric tons of cocoa beans, and the contract price is quoted in U.S. dollars per metric ton. The contract months for trading cocoa futures are March, May, July, September, and December. The price of cocoa can be influenced by several factors, including supply and demand, weather conditions, and political instability in cocoa-producing regions. For example, adverse weather conditions, such as drought or flooding, can reduce cocoa yields and increase prices. Similarly, political unrest or conflicts in cocoa-producing countries can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices. Easter Weekend is a time known well for Easter bunny egg hunts and other chocolate delights, meaning that demand increases for cocoa in the months leading up to Easter. Considering that from a chart analysis the price of Cocoa has already increased over the past few months, it is the ideal time to consider a short right after Easter. Easter has become a global celebration, and many cultures around the world have their unique ways of celebrating the holiday. For example, in Greece, the week leading up to Easter is called "Holy Week," and it is a time of fasting and religious observances. On Easter Sunday, families gather to celebrate with a feast of lamb and other traditional foods. In the United States, Easter is celebrated with the Easter Bunny, who brings baskets of candy and treats to children. The Easter Bunny has its origins in German folklore, where it was a symbol of fertility and new beginnings. The tradition was brought to America by German immigrants in the 1700s. In many Latin American countries, Easter is celebrated with parades and processions, where people carry statues of Jesus and the Virgin Mary through the streets. In Spain, there is a tradition called "Semana Santa," or "Holy Week," which involves elaborate processions and celebrations. In India, the Christian community celebrates Easter by attending church services and exchanging gifts and greetings with friends and family. The holiday is also an opportunity for people of different faiths to come together and celebrate the arrival of spring. In conclusion, Easter is a holiday that is celebrated around the world as a time of new beginnings, renewal, and the victory of life over death. Whether celebrated with bunnies and candy or religious observances and parades, Easter is a time for people of all cultures and faiths to come together and celebrate the beauty and wonder of spring. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck Shortby CryptoCheck-Updated 343440
Short dailyCC1! short daily Price is near the dynamic resistance in weekly time frame, and i think price reverse from this zone.Shortby M2it2M3
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 2838 Pivot: 2660 Support: 2565 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support. Fundamentals: There are no major news.Longby Genesiv2
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 2838 Pivot: 2660 Support: 2565 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support. Fundamentals: There are no major news.by Tickmill0
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 2838 Pivot: 2660 Support: 2565 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support. Fundamentals: There are no major news.Longby Genesiv0