Cocoa downAs commodities start to going down, and cocoa just made a double top, plus had a huge erection what needs a correction, I will go short.
CJ1! trade ideas
Cocoa: On a diet 🚫🍫With the recent surge in cocoa prices, we’ve observed the completion of the white wave d as forecasted in our primary scenario. Given this development, our projections suggest an impending decline characterized by a magenta five-part wave, targeting $2900. Nonetheless, it's essential to consider a 40% probability that the price might reach a slightly higher peak before initiating the expected descent
CC1! Cocoa, some juicy findinglooking for some pullback
as you can see in the chart
looks juicy for a quick short
due to quite serious resistance above
your comments are more than welcome
Cocoa outlook improves as El Niño StrengthensCocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023).
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected. The production estimate was lowered by 37,000 to 4.98 million tonnes, while the grinding forecast was revised higher by 45,000 to 5.07million tonnes.
The revisions are largely due to Ivory Coast (the world’s largest cocoa producing country) where the crop is set to be 30,000 tonnes lower than the prior forecast, but still 79,000 tonnes higher than last year, resulting in a minor downward revision given the considerable year-on-year shortfall in cocoa arrivals at the ports. On the other hand, 35,000 tonnes more cocoa is set to be ground in Ivory Coast than previously predicted by the ICCO. The higher deficit is likely to push global stocks down to 1.63 million tonnes by the end of the crop year, which equates to a good 32% of annual grinding.
The last time the stocks-to-grinding ratio was any lower was 38 years ago. The cocoa price remains well supported against this backdrop. El Niño is now once again a source of concern, as prospects for the new season starting September are not bright due to the threat of dryness. In addition, recent heavy rains have been reported in major producing countries, slowing down mid-crop harvest in top supplier Ivory Coast and elevating fears of disease outbreaks.
The front end of the cocoa moved more deeply in contango, with the negative roll yield of -2.5% weighing on performance.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Cocoa - SHORT; SELL it here!This is very much in the same boat as Coffee - out of season, increasingly negative fundamentals, etc.. (Now, even cocoa brokers are entertaining each other tall tales, trying to pass the time and in an attempt to reinvigorate the business. Yeah, how could that not work?! ... ;-)
A resumption of a U NYSE:D rally, at any point, will put a further lid on this one - much like on coffee.
Looking down from here, there is a looong way to go, enough to catch vertigo. This has also been wicking here, something fierce, for some days now!
EMA for soft commoditites taco_indThe script uses the ema function to calculate the EMAs based on the previous day's closing prices then uses the plot function to draw lines for each EMA. You can customize the colors and titles of each EMA by adjusting the parameters of the plot function.
CC Cacao: Trade Commodity THIS EasterHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
Are you looking to make a trade out of Easter weekend? Look no further than Cocoa futures, or chocolate.
Cocoa is a soft commodity that is used to produce chocolate, and it is traded on several global commodity exchanges. One of the most significant exchanges for trading cocoa futures is the ICE Futures US (Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S.). The exchange offers futures contracts for cocoa, which allows investors to speculate on the future price of cocoa beans. The cocoa futures contract on the ICE Futures US is traded under the symbol CC. Each CC contract represents 10 metric tons of cocoa beans, and the contract price is quoted in U.S. dollars per metric ton. The contract months for trading cocoa futures are March, May, July, September, and December.
The price of cocoa can be influenced by several factors, including supply and demand, weather conditions, and political instability in cocoa-producing regions. For example, adverse weather conditions, such as drought or flooding, can reduce cocoa yields and increase prices. Similarly, political unrest or conflicts in cocoa-producing countries can disrupt supply chains and lead to higher prices. Easter Weekend is a time known well for Easter bunny egg hunts and other chocolate delights, meaning that demand increases for cocoa in the months leading up to Easter. Considering that from a chart analysis the price of Cocoa has already increased over the past few months, it is the ideal time to consider a short right after Easter.
Easter has become a global celebration, and many cultures around the world have their unique ways of celebrating the holiday. For example, in Greece, the week leading up to Easter is called "Holy Week," and it is a time of fasting and religious observances. On Easter Sunday, families gather to celebrate with a feast of lamb and other traditional foods.
In the United States, Easter is celebrated with the Easter Bunny, who brings baskets of candy and treats to children. The Easter Bunny has its origins in German folklore, where it was a symbol of fertility and new beginnings. The tradition was brought to America by German immigrants in the 1700s.
In many Latin American countries, Easter is celebrated with parades and processions, where people carry statues of Jesus and the Virgin Mary through the streets. In Spain, there is a tradition called "Semana Santa," or "Holy Week," which involves elaborate processions and celebrations.
In India, the Christian community celebrates Easter by attending church services and exchanging gifts and greetings with friends and family. The holiday is also an opportunity for people of different faiths to come together and celebrate the arrival of spring.
In conclusion, Easter is a holiday that is celebrated around the world as a time of new beginnings, renewal, and the victory of life over death. Whether celebrated with bunnies and candy or religious observances and parades, Easter is a time for people of all cultures and faiths to come together and celebrate the beauty and wonder of spring.
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Short dailyCC1! short daily
Price is near the dynamic resistance in weekly time frame, and i think price reverse from this zone.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2838
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2565
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2838
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2565
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2838
Pivot: 2660
Support: 2565
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 2660 where the overlap support and 50% Fibonacci line is before heading back up towards the resistance at 2838, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support level at 2565, which is the overlap support.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
#CC #Cocoa #Cacao Since mid-September CC has started an up-trending channel reaching above 2600. This is usually Put range to me: specs tend to sell at these levels reason being short term it is a peak. I would not be surprised if it would not hold. Would be interesting to see the put/call ratio at this level.
On the other hand, much has been said about recession in these last weeks. Data flowing from Asia is not great (South Korea), as is some bigger names reporting earnings in the USA. Lots of layouts since 3q 2022 showing that there is not enough demand, or that businesses are getting ready for lower demand. That translates in non-essential items becoming secondary for consumers, in which chocolate can be included.
Nevertheless, there has been strong demand in its raw material (cocoa) and as of this week positive data from US posting a relative better than expected GDP growth. As seen in other agricultural commodities, offer has been somewhat restrained due to higher cost of inputs (fertilizers), and harder commercial conditions worldwide (shipping).
On the technical side, volume remains up and strong, both show support on its Short and Longer term MA. To see higher levels, CC would have to break above 2690. In the last 2 years, every time its hit above or at 2690 it has retreated back to its base line LB 2450.
Desde mediados de septiembre, CC ha iniciado un canal de tendencia alcista que supera los 2600. Esto suele ser un rango Put para mí: los especuladores tienden a vender en estos niveles porque, a corto plazo, es un pico. No me sorprendería que no aguantara. Sería interesante ver la relación put/call en este nivel.
Por otro lado, mucho se ha hablado de recesión en estas últimas semanas. Los datos que fluyen desde Asia no son excelentes (Corea del Sur), al igual que algunos nombres más importantes que reportan bajas ganancias en los EE. UU. Muchos despidos desde 3q 2022 muestran que no hay suficiente demanda o que las empresas se están preparando para una menor demanda. Eso se traduce en que artículos no esenciales pasen a ser secundarios para los consumidores, en los que se puede incluir el chocolate.
Sin embargo, ha habido una fuerte demanda en su materia prima (cacao) y a partir de esta semana datos positivos de EE. UU. que muestran un crecimiento del PIB relativamente mejor de lo esperado. Como se ha visto en otros productos básicos agrícolas, la oferta se ha visto algo restringida debido al mayor costo de insumos (fertilizantes) y condiciones comerciales más duras en todo el mundo (logistica).
En el aspecto técnico, el volumen se mantiene alto y fuerte, ambos muestran soporte en su media móvil de corto y largo plazo. Para ver niveles más altos, CC tendría que romper por encima de 2690. En los últimos 2 años, cada vez que toca por encima o llega a 2690, ha retrocedido a su línea base LB de 2450.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2699
Pivot: 2564
Support: 2451
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2564, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2451, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a sell entry at 2602, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 2675, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 2507, where the recent low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2699
Pivot: 2564
Support: 2451
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2564, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2451, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2699
Pivot: 2570
Support: 2470
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2699, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2699
Pivot: 2570
Support: 2470
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2699, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Trading Week #3, 2023: Cocoa Futures Expected to be DOWNThis is Trading Week #3 (Jan 16-20) 2023.
Data from the past 20 years (2002-2022) shows that Cocoa Futures was down 15 years (75%) of time.
Get ready to SHORT on Monday!
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2699
Pivot: 2570
Support: 2470
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2699, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa hit our Target $26.90 next target $30.60Target reached with Cocoa at $26.90
7>21>200 MA
Still bullish
Target 2 due to an even bigger Cup and Handle sets the next price to $30.60
But with peripherals, there are a few reasons for the spike in Cocoa prices.
People are buying chocolates!
January is typically a busy month for chocolate manufacturers as they gear up for Valentine's Day, which results in increased demand for cocoa and can lead to an increase in prices.
Speculative buying:
Some investors and traders may anticipate a rise in cocoa prices and begin to buy up large quantities of cocoa futures in anticipation of a price increase. This buying activity can drive prices up.
Production forecasts
If there are forecast of lower cocoa production and if demand is strong, prices would rise as a lack of supply will cause price to increase.
CC1! Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 2606, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 2572, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and recent low are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2671
Pivot: 2570
Support: 2470
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 2671
Pivot: 2570
Support: 2470
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CC1! is bullish due to the current price above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market structure. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to head back up towards the resistance at 2671, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may break the pivot at 2570, where the 50% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the support level at 2470, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
