The quinquennial Bear Trap: Oil’s Next Leg DownIn this video I cover the potential for oil to trade down into the 55 $ range and what confluences we have at this price region .
Please support with a boost and I welcome any questions
CLQ2033 trade ideas
Oil Chart Ready for Price ReboundWith the price being squeezed in this support area, it looks like we are ready for a price rebound in oil. I see price ceilings of $120 and $200 for oil.
CL ready for new move upBased on time fib and Feigenbaum constants, CL is closing in on the bottom for this swing, expected within marked timezone. The swing highs/lows follows the Feigenbaum projections for the last few swings. I expect a dip below $57 before a new run higher, at least to $72-73.
Light Crude Oil (CL) is Targeting Further Declines in the Near TLight Crude Oil (CL) has exhibited a downward trajectory since reaching its high on January 16, 2025, with indications suggesting further declines ahead. The descent follows an incomplete bearish pattern, structured as a double three Elliott Wave formation. The initial decline, termed wave W, concluded at 65.22, followed by a recovery to 72.23, designated as wave X. The price has since resumed its downward movement in wave Y, characterized by a zigzag pattern.
From the wave X peak of 72.23, the price fell to 69.27, marking the end of wave (i), then rose to 70.15 in wave (ii). The decline continued in wave (iii) to 60.45, followed by a recovery in wave (iv) to 63.20. The final segment, wave (v), concluded at 58.95, completing wave ((a)). A subsequent rise in wave ((b)) reached 63.90, after which the price resumed its descent in wave ((c)). For this downward trend to solidify, the price must fall below the 58.95 level established by wave ((a)). Otherwise, a potential stabilization or reversal remains possible.
In the near term, as long as the 72.23 high remains intact, any upward movements are expected to lose momentum—potentially after 3, 7, or 11 incremental rises—leading to further declines.
Consider Long Positions as Crude Oil Tests Lows
-Key Insights: As crude oil tests key support levels around $62, considering
long positions with caution could be advantageous. Understanding OPEC's
increased production impact and broader market sentiment will guide strategic
decision-making. Despite bearish pressures, potential for recovery exists as the
market may stabilize and seek reversals.
-Price Targets: Next week targets: T1 = $65, T2 = $68. Stop levels: S1 = $57, S2
= $52. The target levels and stops are framed to leverage potential bounce from
current lows, allowing room for modest recovery amidst volatility.
-Recent Performance: Crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline from the low
70s to the low 60s, touching $62 for the first time since April 2021. This
decline aligns with general commodity trends reflecting recession fears, with
oil down by approximately 10.6%.
-Expert Analysis: Mixed opinions reign over crude oil's trajectory. Analysts
point to inflation and constraints hinting at long-term bullish potential, while
OPEC's supply increase suggests ongoing downward pressure. Caution is advised as
the market's technical trajectory could shift with emerging conditions.
-News Impact: OPEC's decision to boost production influences current market
sentiment, exacerbating crude oil's selling pressure amid global economic
uncertainties. Bond markets have seen increased interest due to stability
concerns, further affecting commodity price movements including crude oil.
Crude Analysis After huge fall.I have analyzed the crude with Gann method of price. I have also used trend and candlestick pattern. Then reached to this conclusion. Target is apple. And other level to watch for entry.
crude oilPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers.
From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00.
The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand.
From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). We are in the 2nd phase, clearly bearish. On March 23 I wrote:
"The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31."
👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31.
⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.
What next for WTI ?Although we had a strong up move in oil last week we remain well within last years range. we still a need above $76.50 area to pose a threat on higher prices towards $85/90, otherwise we sink back into the range of the last 14 months, similarly a close below $63.75 will see the deeper move lower.
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00Crude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil daily line showed continuous tombstones, which was suppressed near 72.00. Today's idea is to continue to look at the rebound in the short term and pay attention to the support near 68.70. This position is a buy rebound. We will wait for opportunities in the Asian session. Crude oil has begun to move on a weekly trend. We need to pay attention to this week's closing to determine whether it will start a weekly trend in the future.
Fundamental analysis:
Trump's midnight tariffs caused the market to tremble again. In addition, ADP rose sharply, with a result of 155,000 people, 80,000 people in advance, and 115,000 people expected. The bulls still pulled up under such a big negative situation.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----buy near 68.90, target 69.90-72.00
Crude Oil Broke Strucutre to the DOWN Side!here we have a pretty simple trade, price action on the daily has finally broke structure to the downside.. this week i'll be looking for sells, you can either enter on the open or look for imbalance GAPS for a slightly better entry on any PULL backs... i'll be adding additional entries as we break the next structure... the structures i have drawn up with the blue dotted lines are areas to target and also wait for the break down of that support area!!!!
conclusion - simple trade keep it simple and don't over risk and over trade!
OIL GLUTSTRONG SELL until November 2025
First Target : $52
Second Target : $43
Under the screening of 100 Weeks Bollinger Bands, Oil is in the same situation as in 1986, 1993, 1998, 2014 and 2020
Since there is talk of a glut " Strong production growth expected to increase global oil glut in 2025, 2026" Bloomberg 11/02/2025, the target could be as low as $32 (High 2022 =130 * GannRatio 0.25)
However there will be a heavy test at around $52-55, a support line uniting several key points since 12/2006. Eventually, greater volatility alone would make $43 possible. (130*GannRatio 0.33).
It is noticeable that in all instances exepted 2014, a very sizable rebound was observed from 6 months after the plunge, so that we would be strongly short right now and contemplate to buy from September 2025
We cannot speculate as to whether there will be 2 plunges (2014) or 1 straight plunge (all other instances excepted 1998) or a prolonged plunge (1993). This is why the test in the $50 is crucial. The article suggests for 2025-26, more in line with 1993 and 2014. Therefore we believe that $43 will be reached.
Oil Futures Moving into Bear Market?Oil futures recently broke down from a long-term wedge, following a failed breakout at the start of the year, and a recent death cross of its 50/200 weekly EMAs and MAs.
It looks to flip long-term bearish here unless we see a rapid recovery of the wedge, the EMAS/MAs and a subsequent breakout.
It could lose half its value or even 2/3rds if it hits TP 1 and then TP 2 over the next weeks and months to come.
Oil Futures short: Breakdown of descending triangleThis is the breakdown that I had discussed in my earlier idea on the same product. I had used futures this time because this is the product that most professional traders used for trading oil (and really because it's what my friend uses).
The stop is set slightly above the breakdown price.
The take profit is set at 1-1 target from the most recent peak to the breakdown.
OIL - CL - Long scalping OIL - CL - Long scalping
If price break resistence zone we can have an new long wave to complete the 3° wave
Long Next Week: Crude Oil Set for Potential Price Recovery
- Key Insights: Crude oil sees potential upward momentum with prices trading
above the 8-day moving average. Market sentiment favors short-term recovery
despite mid-level volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand
dynamics. Analysts emphasize crude oil's undervaluation and opportunities
due to supply constraints and potential oil production peaks by 2025.
- Price Targets: Next week targets aim for a recovery from the current level.
Tight stops and returns provide a trading framework.
- T1: $71
- T2: $72
- S1: $67
- S2: $66
- Recent Performance: WTI crude oil is trading around $68, with predictions
suggesting a pullback to $67 before potentially rising. Trading above its
8-day moving average suggests persisting upward momentum, pending market
movement. Market volatility exists due to fluctuating demand-supply dynamics
and geopolitical factors, with price support at $64.75 and resistance around
$70 to $73.50, indicating critical levels for potential trends.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight the undervaluation in commodities,
including crude oil, suggesting investment opportunities as the energy
sector benefits from supply constraints. Expectations exist for peak oil
production by 2025, which could lead to long-term market shortages and
volatility. Companies like Occidental Petroleum remain sensitive to price
variations, focusing on debt reduction and dividend increases.
- News Impact: Geopolitical tensions related to Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan
oil could pressure supply chains and affect price stability. The move
towards renewable energy continues to reshape long-term demand; however,
robust demand is anticipated until major shifts occur. China's crude oil
strategies will significantly impact global supply and price alignment.
Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding future price
trajectories in the crude oil market.
Crude Oil at Decision Point — Breakout Coming or Just More Chop?Crude is nearing the apex of a descending triangle, but the conflicting signals across timeframes make this a tough read. The daily is breaking out to the upside, while the 4H is pushing lower — classic mixed market structure. Are we about to fake out in both directions before rolling over to fresh lows, or is this a genuine attempt to break higher? Honestly, both long and short setups feel like low-probability plays right now. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
How I Used COT to Profit in Crude Oil I show you my process from start to finish.
How to identify:
If a market is setup for a move of some significance.
How to confirm a setup using accumulation/distribution measurements & seasonals.
Finally, how to utilize technical methods to enter into a trade.
Crude Oil update in weekly chartThere is nothing I can add to my last published idea of CL1 except the pattern of y. It make sense that wave y makes a flat instead of zigzag which I guessed. Anyway, there is no matter and I am waiting for a reliable correction.
Thanks
WTI Crude Oil Trade Plan: DOE Release NYMEX:CL1!
In this tradingview blog, we go over our technical setup and trade idea for Crude oil.
It is important to note we also have DOE inventory numbers coming at 10:30 ET.
Once the release has settled in, the trade idea can be framed using either of our two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Liquidity Trap
Rejection above March Monthly Open or Yearly Open and prices mean revert towards March mcVAH and CVPOC confluence. The idea considers the trend from last Wednesday. Late breakout buyers get trapped. Higher time frame participants push prices lower.
An example swing trade idea would be taking a long position once the release has settled and waiting for a pull back around 69.50.
• Entry: 69.50
• Stop: 70.30
• Target: 68.15
• Risk: 80 ticks
• Reward: 135 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.69
This is an example swing trade idea that may play out by the end of the week.
Scenario 2: Shift back into 70 - 75 range distribution.
Immediate resistance is at March monthly open and yearly open. Above it the path clears towards Q1 mid-range and 2025 mCVPOC.
An example of a trade idea for this scenario is to wait for a breakout and close of candle on the 30 minutes time frame above yearly open. Wait for a pullback towards 70.28
• Entry: 70.35
• Stop: 69.50
• Target 71.45
• Risk: 85 ticks
• Reward: 110 ticks
• Risk/Reward ratio: 1.29
Please note that these are example trade ideas. Trades are advised to do their own preparation. Stops are not guaranteed to trigger, and losses may be greater than predetermined stops.
buyers coming into the marketprice hit a higher timeframe resistence area at the end of the week, which we see lots
of selling off & a bearish engulfing candle.
price has now hit an institutional candle & is showing sighns of rejection from that area
buyers have already started to enter the market , as we can see on a lower timeframe.
i will be looking for buys at market open,
