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CL1! trade ideas

2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action. comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 74 - 77 bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math. Invalidation is above 76.2. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment. medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Neutral HOUSE outlook on Crude Oil to go LONG or SHORT...?NYMEX:CL1! "All your life you are told the things you cannot do. All your life they will say you're not good enough or strong enough or talented enough. They will say you're the wrong height or the wrong weight or the wrong type to play this or be this or achieve this. They will tell you no. A thousand times no. Until all the no's become meaningless. All your life they will tell you no. Quite firmly and very quickly. And you will tell them YES." -Lebron James We coming out on TOP nothing less than that! Here I have developed a High Probable SHORT or LONG based narrative, All depending on your risk appetite and perception of HIGH PROBABLE for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE here on Crude OIL and below I break down into what I want to see develop before we enter the market. Let's get to it!! 1) On the WEEKLY TF we are currently trading inside a MAJOR Wedge. We have created eR/LQ to the upside and downside that price is just ping ponging back N forth in between. The most important part of this TF is the GAN BOX drawn out from the last WEEKLY HIGH to WEEKLY LOW and the 50% EQ Level ($76.30). That I believe price is trying to return back to ($76.30). 2) 4Hr TF I have also drawn out a GAN BOX from the 4Hr Last HIGH to 4Hr LOW and drew out the 50% EQ Level ($75.20) This is another level that I believe price is also returning to retest... 2) Now let's drop down to the LTF's 1Hr, 30m &15m.... As we can clearly see sellers have created this iR/LQ Trendline to the downside that clearly needs to be swept by buyers to create fair value in the market for both parties. *** Now if buyers can build off of this current 1Hr Demand that sellers swept out this morning during LONDON session and we can push price back up above 4Hr Swing EQ ($75.20) and sweep the iR/LQ Trendline with confirmed candle closures above then I may be interested in going LONG... 3) Now in order to go LONG I need to see price break above ($75.20) per barrel and close above price on the 30m TF n Below. If and when we can get these sequence of events to take place then I'll be highly interested in going LONG and my target would be WEEKLY Swing EQ Level ($76.30) roughly around 110 points in our favor LONG... OR we can just wait for price to reach Weekly Swing EQ Level ($76.30) drop down to the LTF 15m and just wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh (Change of Character) and then go SHORT, Targeting 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($75.20) roughly around a 160 points in our favor SHORT Depending on Entry... 4) I'll keep close update as PA develops and we have more data to work with. Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!
by TreyHighPwr
2
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Crude is Ripping, but Where To?Crude Oil (October) Last week’s close: Settled at 74.83, up 1.82 on Friday and down 0.71 on the week Crude Oil rose sharply overnight after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon, and Libya’s eastern government said it will halt exports. The two events, while unrelated, are the main cause for the sharply higher trade in Crude Oil this morning. Libya’s eastern government’s choice to halt oil production and exports was the result of a continued political tussle over the country’s central bank. Israel sent over 100 warplanes to strike thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers on Sunday - a flare-up in tensions amidst continued ceasefire talks. Furthermore, Hamas said yesterday “that U.S. talk of an imminent ceasefire deal is false and serves election purposes.” Libya was set to export 1 million bpd of crude oil in August. A retraction of Libyan barrels from the export markets may cause ripple effects this week as geopolitical tensions continue to flare and OPEC continues mulling their planned production increases. WTI Crude Oil futures are trading out above 76.75, the 50% retracement from the August 5th low back to the July 5th high. Previous resistance now defines support at 75.36-75.73 and again below there at 74.52-74.85, aligning with Friday’s settlement. Theis defines a clear blueprint for the bulls to hold the driver’s seat. Still, there is strong overhead resistance lurking at 78.13-78.54, but a move above could encourage forced buying. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 78.13-78.54***, 79.85-80.00*** Pivot: 76.75 Support: 75.36-75.73***, 74.52-74.85***, 74.16-74.38*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CLV2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
CL Long on Demand increaseLong CL retracement trade. alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd alkj;ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssdkfljd
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by cbrennig4
CRUDEOIL - BREAKOUT OR NOT?Crude Oil Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe) Current Pattern: Crude oil is trading within a falling wedge channel, indicating potential for a breakout. Breakout Levels to Watch: Key Resistance: A break above 6185 is crucial for confirming the breakout from the wedge pattern. Sustained Move: If crude oil can hold above 6240, it would signal strength and a higher likelihood of a bullish move. Target: A successful breakout and sustained levels above 6240 could lead to a rally towards the identified demand zone, presenting a potential upside opportunity. Technical Indicators: Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the breakout strength. IF THIS WILL HELP YOU PLEASE LIKE THE POST ❤️
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by Shalvisharma5
TI-BRNeutral/Slight long Reg LONG TI SHORT BRENT TI WILL GO UP BRENT DOWN TO NARROW THE SPREAD kljfsasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasasad
NYMEX:CL1!
by cbrennig4
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again. WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again. I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year. DS
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FOREXcom
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market. quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72. comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 72 - 75.5 bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52. Invalidation is below 73.1. bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5. Invalidation is above 75.5. short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds