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CL1! trade ideas

#202517 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market went nowhere past week so nothing changed from my last weeks update. Bulls want to retest the upper bear trend line around 69 and bears reversing below the 50% retracement of the bear trend that started in January. I do not have an opinion on where the breakout will happen, I can see it going both ways. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - daily chart is a bear trend that could be transitioning into a trading range again key levels: 55 - 69 bull case: Bulls see it as a failed acceleration down and want to retest the prior bear trend line around 68. Same target as last week but this week they closed the weekly bar above 64 which was my line in the sand. If they continue here, they will likely squeeze much higher again. 69 next target. Nothing changed in this. Invalidation is below 60. bear case: Bears have going for them that they stopped the bounce at the breakout area and under the 50% retracement, which is very important for them. If they get a daily close below 60, we could go lower again but until then it’s a clear trading range 60-52. Market is neutral for me, despite not going above the 50% retracement. Invalidation is a daily close above 65. short term: Neutral 60-65, bullish above for 69 and bearish below for 55. medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected. Nothing happened the past week so no better update on this. Will tariffs likely or are they already dampening consumption? Most likely. Will this be reflected in Oil demand in the near term? No fucking clue. Chart is in a bear trend but at such a huge support for so many years, I doubt we go much lower but we could range here for longer.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering. Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been fluctuating recently. Today, we focus on the rhythm and range of its fluctuations. The suppression near 65.30 is successful. The selling trend is downward. Let's sell on the rebound today. Pay attention to the suppression near 64.00. There is still room for selling. The recent data and tariff war on crude oil have not had a big impact on it, so it has been hovering. Operational suggestions Crude oil------sell near 64.30, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Recently, crude oil has been running up. Yesterday, the daily line had a technical retracement under the pressure of 65.00. Today, we are still bearish. Let's continue to sell when it rebounds. There is still a lot of room for crude oil to fall. Today's crude oil rebounded near 64.00 and sold. If it breaks below 60.00, it will open up a new space for a big drop. The recent data and fundamentals of crude oil are suppressing it. Buy today and expect a big rebound. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Toml1314
Gold silver coffee TeslaThis is March 23rd. there was a great setup for the reversal in gold which should have been expected.... and it looks like it's coming down to support where the market had gapped higher originally. when gold traded lower it took out a whole bunch of breakout buyers.... now we need the weight and see if new buyers will be entering the gold market. and this would have been a very easy short yesterday for the gold market and an easy continuation as the market traded lower today where we may find some buyers. silver is in a unique way more interesting than the gold because there's a chance that it could trade higher enough that that would trigger buyers to go long anticipating the possibility that the market could go to the all-time high of 50. coffee looks pretty good for a continuation higher there was a good trade location to go long on coffee yesterday. I think Tesla's probably a great Buy with a high potential to go substantially higher.... I would not be surprised if we learn someday that Elon Musk bought more shares of Tesla anticipating that the market is that a support and will go considerably higher in a market that would look weak to traders who don't understand opportunity. Elon was the victim of political manipulation with no real problems with his cars.... sales were down but the politicians with large amounts of capital put pressure on Tesla to lower.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro LandNYMEX:CL1! In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April. "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on. Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility. This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference. Key Levels: • April Monthly Open: 70.75 • 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13 • Yearly Open: 69.64 • 2024 Mid: 69.52 • 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52 • 2025 mCVAL: 65.08 • March 2025 Low: 64.37 • 2022 CVAL: 61.60 • 2024 Low: 59.91 The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA). Example Trade Idea: • Timeframe: Hourly • Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL). • Entry: 64.50 • Stop: 64.00 • Target: 66.50 • Risk: 50 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL. Example Trade Idea: • Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL. • Timeframe: Hourly • Entry: 64.00 • Stop: 64.40 • Target: 62.00 • Risk: 40 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R ________________________________________ Important Notes: These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions. Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels. ________________________________________ Glossary: • VA: Value Area • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VAL: Value Area Low • C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) • mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th. Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation. Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by RT_Money
2
The pivotal technical threshold is $65 for the price of oil The price of US crude oil broke a major technical support in April The price of oil gave a technical red alert at the beginning of April after breaking a major long-term support, all against a complicated fundamental backdrop: the so-called reciprocal tariff trade war, geopolitical tensions and internal divisions within OPEC+. The immediate consequence: a sharp fall in prices, the steepest since the health crisis of 2020. Does this fall reflect economic reality, or is it the result of excessive negative sentiment? WTI has broken the technical threshold of $65, a pivotal level which had been the market peak ahead of the health crisis in early 2020. This multi-year support gave way under the blows of a market frightened by the prospect of a global recession, whereas it had been preserved since last September. But therein lies the nuance: it's not the recession itself that's at work, but the anticipation of a slowdown, fuelled by daily political and commercial volatility. At a fundamental level, the fall in the price of oil represents several factors: - The increased probability of a global economic recession linked to the uncertainty of the prospective international trade framework. - The new all-time record in US oil production and the Trump Administration's intensive drilling policy. - Strong dissension among OPEC+ member countries, which ultimately led to an increase in oil supply of over 400K barrels/day from May onwards, i.e. three times the volume initially forecast - Uncertainty over the evolution of global demand and rising production, it was this new supply/demand ratio that led to the break of the $65 technical support on US crude at the beginning of April. $65 is therefore the fundamental and technical pivot for the price of oil The message is twofold. Technically, the signal is crystal-clear: oil has broken a major support. Fundamentally, the scenario of a recession remains hypothetical, as the economic data have not yet validated it. The market is anticipating, often too fast, often too hard. An analysis of the historical price of US oil shows that the $65 threshold is a kind of frontier between optimistic and pessimistic economic expectations. Clearly, if the market holds below this resistance level, it will be a sign of a trade war that is still a long way off trade agreements. On the other hand, a return to the $65 mark would signal a return to a stable trading environment and a rise in the price of oil towards $80. Finally, from a macro point of view, an oil price below $65 could accelerate the disinflation process, bringing the FED closer to a pivot. April's fall in the price of oil on the commodities market would therefore be a blessing in disguise. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote
Crude oil---sell near 63.90, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis: The recent crude oil has been delivered. The new contract is relatively strong at present. Yesterday's daily line closed with a positive line. In the short-term bottom shock, we are still bearish on crude oil today. We continue to sell. The large pattern suppresses around 65.30. The daily moving average suppresses around 65.700, which means that buying needs to break this position to reverse. Today's crude oil is suppressed at 63.90. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---sell near 63.90, target 60.00-58.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BraveTigercat
1