NG1! Bears Hold at $2.83, Watch $2.66 or Rebound to $3.00-3.27 | Aug 13-15, 2025,
Signal: NG1! hit price target $2.76 low. Green/mixed volume on (1000-tick) signals buying, possible backtest to 50 EMA ($3.27). Death cross (50 EMA200 EMA) keeps bears in control bigger pic. High production (108.3 bcfd) and inventories (~6% above norm) pressure price down, but Hurricane Erin (15% LNG risk) looms.
Technicals:
Cuban Bands: Lower $2.68, Upper $3.32
VWAPs: $2.99-$3.13 (resistance)
Big Beluga: $3.15-$3.24 (bullish target zone)
Volume: Green/Mixed (1000-tick), buying pressure
Fundamentals:
Production: 108.3 bcfd (bearish)
EIA (Aug 14): +20-30 Bcf; >+30 Bcf targets $2.40-$2.62
Weather: Mixed (hot Southwest, cooler Northeast, rain FL/NO). Demand ~55-65 Bcf/4 days
Hurricane Erin: 15% risk to LNG (16.2 bcfd) by Aug 17-19 (Bahamas/Florida)
Geopolitical: Trump-Putin meeting (Aug 15) no impact (Nord Stream ~8%)
Odds:
55% to $2.40-$2.62 (Cuban lower; 65% if $2.67 breaks or EIA >+30 Bcf)
45% to $3.00-$3.20 (backtest 50 EMA $3.27 if green volume holds), think were in the diaper change moment so its messy to see.
Trade:
as primary targets hit, look to go long soon, for a bounce up to daily 50ema, waiting to see if buyers step in or not. and thursday report EIA will mix things up.
Watch: EIA (Aug 14), Hurricane Erin for(Aug 17-19).
Feedback welcome! Like & follow. Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NATURALGAS1! Naturalgas today
NG1! hitting 1st target, see if we find support, good hunting 
NG1! Update - Bears Eye $2.82, Fill the gap down from Sunday open
Odds: 65% to $2.82, 20% to $3.12-$3.20 (hit $3.148, move is likely done), 15% to $2.40-$2.60 by Aug 10-12.
Signal: NG1! at $2.98 (Monday), gapped lower Sunday, filled gap today, think price is backtesting VWAP ($2.99) or back and fill, price is below 57 EMA ($3.07). 50/200 EMA death cross day time frame is bearish no mater how you look at it, holding the nat gas to favour the downside, for now a ~17% drop to ~$2.52 possible based on previous death crosses. Red volume and mixed on the 1000tick = weak .
Trade: Hold short, add on bull exhaustion. incoming volatility is most likely, there will be some catalyst to reverse the trend soon, Feedback helps! like and follow, Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! Update - Pre-Market, Gap and Crack Down, Bears Eye $2.82
Odds: 55% to $2.82, 30% to $3.12-$3.20 (hit $3.148, move likely done), 15% to $2.40-$2.60 by Aug 10-12.
Signal: NG1! at $2.90 (Sunday, pre-market), near below and backtests VWAP at ($2.99), below 5h 57 EMA ($3.09). Daily 50/200 EMA cross ($3.31/$3.34) confirmed bearish death cross (holds weight), ~17% drop to ~$2.52. Big Beluga zone ($2.79-$2.89) and Cuban Bands ($3.40/$2.74) back price to $2.82. Red, low volume on 1000-tick chart
Trend: Bearish, steady. EIA’s +7 Bcf (3,130 Bcf) is rope-a-dope—next Thu (Aug 14) ~+20-30 Bcf projected. Hot Aug 10 lifts demand. Trump-Putin meet Aug 15; war risk next 1-4 weeks could spike prices to $4.50-$6.00—watch Persian Gulf (or Arabian Gulf) for ship issues. 190 km/h wind (Aug 18-23) hints at an offshore cyclone, possible supply disruption. lots going on.
Trade: Hold short, possibility to add to short position if theres a bounce up. Watch EIA and war news and weather. Feedback helps! Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NATURALGAS1! 264 to 284? NG? 3.05 to 3.33?
NG1! Update - Psych Level $3.00, Sticky Price Action, Bears Eye $2.82
Odds: 50% to $2.82, 35% to $3.12-$3.20 (hit $3.148, move may be done which would effect odds), 15% to $2.40-$2.60 by Aug 8-10.
Signal: NG1! at $3.03 (Friday), above VWAP ($2.99), below 57 EMA ($3.10). Daily 50/200 EMA cross ($3.331/$3.343) confirmed bearish, ~17% drop to ~$2.52 possible, theres always volatility around the cross zone it seems,(the diaper change moment), Big Beluga ($2.79-$2.89) and Cuban Bands ($3.40/$2.74) back $2.82 target. 1000-tick volume mixed pre-market, red at open.
Trend: Bearish, steady. EIA’s +7 Bcf (3,130 Bcf) is rope-a-dope—should be ~+25 Bcf. Cool East Coast caps demand. but Hot Aug 8-10 lifts demand. bull bear Tug-of-war!
Trade: Hold short, —consider taking some profit today (Friday) and reassess Monday, who knows what will happen over the weekend when the store is closed to retail. Watch for next EIA Aug 14 (~+20-30 Bcf). Feedback helps! Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! Update - EIA Rope-a-Dope,
Bcf Reported +7 Bcf is ~68% too low
Odds: 55% to $2.82, 30% rebound to $3.12-$3.20 (price hit $3.148), 15% to $2.40-$2.60 by Aug 7-8.
Signal: NG1! at $3.05 now (Thursday, hit $3.148), at 57 EMA ($3.11), above VWAP ($2.99). Daily 50/200 EMA cross ($3.343/$3.346) looms bearish, death cross ~17% drop to ~$2.58 possible. Big Beluga ($2.79-$2.89) and Cuban Bands ($2.67) back $2.82 target in-term. mixed 1000-tick volume. note the 5h outside candle, meaning bull bear tug a war, and price got run up only to be sold off, lets see how it play out,
Trend: Bearish, steady. EIA’s +7 Bcf (3,130 Bcf) is shenanigans—should be ~+25 Bcf based on historical data. Cool East Coast caps demand (~60-70 Bcf/4 days). Hot Aug 8-10 may lift demand,
Trade: Hold short, Watch next EIA Aug 14. Feedback helps! Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NATURALGAS1! Buy current price 270.80
stoploss 270 (4hrs time frame closing)
Target 301
NG1! Update - Bears at $3.05, Eye $2.82
Odds: 65% to $2.82, 20% possible bounce to $3.07-$3.12, 10% to $2.40-$2.60 by Aug 7-8.
Signal: NG1! at $3.05 (Wednesday), near VWAP ($2.99), below 57 EMA ($3.11). Daily 50/200 EMA death cross looms bearish, if we get the cross a 17% move down is possible target of $2.53 ish. it would be volatile move, Big Beluga ($2.79-$2.89) and Cuban Reversal Bands ($2.74) back target of $2.82. Mixed red 1000-tick volume. make up you mind.
Trend: Bearish, steady. and cool East Coast cap demand. Hot weather cells (Mexico→Great Lakes Aug 9-10) may lift demand. Bear-bull tug-of-war! Watch EIA Aug 7 (~+30-40 Bcf). suspect price stays flat till the EIA report
Like these posts? Feedback helps! Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
