NAT GAS Futures Long on Regression BreakWTI and Brent are breaking upwards and NAT Gas is breaking out.
There is +14% roll in the front month of this pair.
It is worth a good review.
JKM1! trade ideas
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
NATURAL GAS MCX - LOWER HIGH AND LOWER LOWThe given video explains the trend of natural Gas
Daily Chart - Uptrend
1 hr Chart - Downtrend
This chart is only for educational purpose
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year.
The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs.
There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas.
www.bruegel.org
In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price.
In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance.
Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year.
Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates.
That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so"
-Mark Twain
Will Europe's Gas Gambit Reshape the Global Energy Landscape?In a bold move reverberating across global energy markets, Ukraine's decision to halt Russian gas transit on New Year's Day 2025 has ushered in a new era of energy geopolitics. This watershed moment not only challenges decades-old supply patterns but also tests Europe's resilience and strategic foresight in securing its energy future. The immediate market response, with gas prices surging to levels unseen since late 2023, underscores the significance of this pivotal shift.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, Norway's Troll field has emerged as a beacon of hope, setting unprecedented production records and demonstrating Europe's capacity for strategic adaptation. With production reaching 42.5 billion standard cubic meters in 2024, this achievement showcases how technological innovation and operational excellence can help reshape traditional energy dependencies. Meanwhile, BMI's forecast of a 40% price increase for 2025 signals the complex interplay between supply disruptions, growing demand, and market expectations.
The transformation of Europe's energy landscape extends beyond mere supply chain reorganization. While countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova face immediate challenges in securing alternative gas sources, the broader European response highlights a remarkable shift in energy security strategy. With storage facilities maintaining robust levels and infrastructure upgrades underway, Europe's energy transition demonstrates how geopolitical challenges can catalyze innovation and strategic resilience in the global energy sector.
Nat Gas: Trading the WeatherNYMEX: Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! )
On December 31, 2024, the lead contract of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas futures closed at $3.6330 per MMBtu. This marked a strong gain of 44.5% year-over-year, making it the best performing active futures contract for the year.
Nat Gas is one of the most actively traded commodities. According to CME Group:
• Henry Hub booked record trading volume in 2024. Average daily volumes for futures and options were 566,000 and 242,000 contracts, respectively.
• As of last Friday, Open Interests were 1,511,978 for futures and 775,176 for options.
The Basic
Natural gas is a leading energy source for global economy. While clean energy generates a lot of buzz these days, natural gas still carries the biggest load in power generation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates U.S. electricity production at 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2023.
• About 43.1% of the electricity was generated by natural gas.
• Nuclear power contributed to 18.6%, while coal had a 16.2% share.
• Combined, Renewables accounted for a 21.4% share, including 10.2% from Wind, 5.7% from Hydro, and 3.9% from Solar.
The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. In the case of electricity, it is hard to store while its demand is highly unpredictable. New storage technology is limited by capacity and high cost. With Nat Gas being the biggest energy source, unforeseen changes in power demand could send shock waves into the market.
Weather factors, in particular temperature, have the biggest impact in power demand.
• In the summer months, the biggest power usage is for air conditioning cooling. Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is above 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
• In the winter months, the biggest power usage is for heating home and offices. Heating Degree Day (HDD) is the number of days in a month where the average daily temperature is below 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
Energy traders deploy CDD/HDD analysis and weather forecast models to predict temperature trends, electricity demand and the subsequent natural gas use.
The Weather Shocks
On December 29, 2024, the Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released a weather forecast for January showing colder than average temperature in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
In a separate report, AccuWeather meteorologists said that the colder air could trigger a winter storm with substantial snow and ice for a significant portion of the month’s first half. They added that the drop will begin in the middle and latter part of next week.
When the futures market opened the next day, the price of Henry Hub futures surged 20%, hitting a new 52-week high of $4.20.
Earlier in the winter, Germany experienced the so-called “Dunkelflaute” with no wind and a clouded sky. This is the worst scenario for wind and solar power. As Germany is heavily reliant on renewable energy, when the weather fails to cooperate, its power supply drops by half, sending electricity prices sky high.
The huge supply gap prompted energy companies to turn on gas-fueled backup power plants, pushing the Dutch TTF ( NYMEX:TTF1! ) natural gas contracts to a record high.
At the time of this writing, severe winter storms are sweeping across the Central Plains in the U.S., bringing heavy snow, sleet, and frozen rain from Kansas to Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Apart from the winter hazards, I expect higher power consumption to keep people warm from the below-average temperatures.
Trading with Micro Henry Hub Futures
Micro Henry Hub natural gas futures (MNG) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark Henry Hub futures (NG) contracts. The Micro futures have a contract size of 1,000 MMBtu, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. The Micro contracts allow traders to control a large contract value with a small amount of capital.
With Friday settlement price of $3.354, each February contract (MNGG5) has a notional value of $3,354. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $366.
Since its Monday high, Henry Hub prices have plunged 20%. Subsequent updated weather forecasts now predicted warmer trends for the Eastern US, which could curb heating demand for Nat Gas. Losses accelerated last Friday after the EIA reported that Nat Gas inventories for the week of December 27th fell -116 bcf, a smaller draw than expectations of -128 bcf.
In my opinion, the draw was lower due to the reduced economic activity around the Christmas holiday. For the same token, we could see a smaller draw during the New Year. However, I consider this data seasonal outliners, rather than a longer-term trend.
Global warming doesn’t necessarily mean warmer winters. Higher global temperature brings moisture from the ocean, with wetter atmosphere generating more extreme weather events. I expect winter temperature patterns to shift to much colder-than-normal, with cool anomalies poised to stick around key population centers deep into the winter.
As we have seen in the past, unpredictable weather events could send large shocks to natural gas prices. With Micro Henry Hub contracts, traders could potentially realize sizable gains with a small capital requirement.
Hypothetically, if the February prices move up 10% to $3.689 with lower temperature forecasts, the $0.3354 price gain would translate into $335.4 for a long futures position, given the contract size at 1,000 MMBtu. Using the initial margin of $366 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 99.6% (=335.4/366).
The long futures position would lose money if Nat Gas prices continued to trend lower.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
NG1! SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
NG1! pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 3.928 because the pair is oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NATURAL GAS FUTURE may catch Fire...MCX:NATURALGAS1! trade at 188.80. After breakout you can watch for 200 & 220 target with SL of 180 & 170
NatGAS is heating upA close above the white Center-Line projects higher prices to come.
There are 2 scenarios I see:
1. pull-back to the white CL, then up.
2. cross above the petrol CL, further and fast continuation to the north.
...oh, there's 3rd scenario:
3. price is getting punched back below the white Center-Line again. If that comes true, price has another chance to go south, with a target at the 1/4 line, or even way down to the L-MLH.
Nat Gas Monday 30 DecThe script was volatile as expected. An increase in volatility says a lot about fear in other markets. The margin is quite high. Making money is easy but this is not gonna happen every week or every month.
Bullish on Natural Gas - January 280 Call OptionSummary: I'm bullish on the Natural Gas January 280 call option. Here's my trade idea:
Current Price: Closed at ₹24.76 on December 27, 2024.
Entry:
Best Buying Price: Aim to enter below ₹18.80 for optimal risk-reward.
Target:
Price Target: Looking towards ₹37-₹40.
Rationale:
The current market conditions suggest potential for an upward movement in natural gas prices, supported by seasonal demand increases and possible geopolitical tensions affecting supply.
Technical analysis indicates a potential breakout if the price sustains above key support levels.
Risk Management:
Set a stop-loss just below ₹16 to minimize potential losses if the market moves against the position.
Position size should be managed to ensure the trade aligns with your risk tolerance.
Time Frame:
This trade is for the January expiry, giving us a tight window to capitalize on the expected price increase.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice but a personal trading idea. Always do your own research and consider your financial situation before trading.
Let's see if we can catch that wave up to ₹37-₹40!
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
Natural Gas: The Bearish Plunge Before the Meteoric AscentSince its recent peak in August 2022 at a price of $10, natural gas has embarked on a substantial corrective journey. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this move is shaping as an ABC correction. The initial A wave was a sharp decline, followed by a rebound to the $4 level, forming the B wave. This B wave unfolded as an expanding flat correction, demonstrating classic technical patterns.
Looking ahead, we foresee the next leg—a wave C—continuing its downward trajectory, potentially reaching a pivotal low of $0.77 around September 2025. This anticipated level aligns with critical technical support and could mark the completion of a major corrective phase.
Following this projected bottom, we anticipate a robust reversal, with natural gas prices breaking above $4 and potentially revisiting the $10 mark by 2026. This long-term outlook highlights a significant investment opportunity for traders and investors alike.
Key Takeaway: The path to $0.77 presents a bearish scenario in the short term, but the rebound promises a game-changing bullish outlook, with substantial growth potential for those who time the market right.
Invalidation Level: Any upward breach above the $4 mark would challenge the current bearish wave count and require a reassessment of the analysis.
Nat Gas Thursday 26 DecPrice is trading in a new territory. The margin required to enter into a trade has increased as the price has increased by 70%. Now you can't buy big quantity as fluctuation has risen, thus making stop loss quite large. So if your risk appetite is not that big you should think of bringing down position size. But if you're greed driven person this is your moment. You can make big bucks by trading just one big contract without scaling into a trade. Just keep trailing your stop and the rest will be taken care of. Fluctuations are big but it only happens at the end of a trend.
One more thing if you trade just to make money then this market is not for you. You don't belong here. Go someplace else. There are million ways to make money. Pick one and love it.
Nat Gas Tue 24 DecThe script has become quite volatile. Traders unfamiliar with this volatility or used to the equity market will lose their minds. Nat Gas has crossed the 300 mark and now the nature of the beast has changed. And it is going to get worse and if you're a price action trader then you're going to have a hard time making money. Cause fluctuations are not backed by logic or valuation but by fear in other sectors. People who have studied this market for a long and dedicated their energy and time to this script are going to survive, other traders are going to lose their money and mind eventually. I'll only say "Go back to your playground".
Whoever has dedicated themselves to this craft is going to make money even in the worst conditions. Goodbye and happy trading!
Nat Gas Monday 23 DecToday was the day for swing traders. There come some days when you can't help but make money. The market opened with the gap on the upside, stayed sideways for a while then started creeping down. At one point selling pressure was so high price hardly rallied. For swing traders, this was that day of the month. For scalpers, it was business as usual.
But the interesting thing about today is that volatility was high. It was no big deal cause the targets were also big. As long as the price is above 300 big swings are here to stay. Prepare yourself for big swings!
See you Tomorrow.
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
NATGAS My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3.749 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 3.574
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NATGAS: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
NATGAS
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell NATGAS
Entry - 3.749
Stop - 3.948
Take - 3.376
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
How This #1 Chart Pattern WorksIts been a crazy week as the markets are cold
going down into a bear market.
I was feeling very sad these past 2 days. But after a special
discussion i had
With a group of guys, i felt much better.
This encouraged me to refine my trading system
It makes it so simple that i won't have to think too much
about it.
This allowed me to stumble into
a a Blue Ocean strategy for trading
the commodities market
Now look at this pattern
have you noticed the 3 green candles?
According to chart patterns on NYMEX:NG1!
what type of candlestick chart pattern is this?
This chart pattern, has a consolidation period
meaning it will go flat and so you have
to account for risk management before you
engage in this type of trade.
Once you understand this chart pattern
you are well on your way
to understand the last step in the rocket booster strategy
To learn more about the rocket booster strategy
check out the resources below.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
please use a simulation trading tool before you trade with real money
Nat Gas Friday 20 DecOpened with a gap of 3% on the upside. The start wasn't that good. A couple of losses were incurred at the beginning. But covered in later trades. Credit goes to "adding to the winners".
XNGUSD was sometimes leading and sometimes lagging. The script gave retailers ample amount of time to think. Even though the direction of XNGUSD and Natgas against the rupee was the same there was some price slippage. Due to this getting to the conclusion was a bit tricky.
As always scalpers must've exited with some profit.
Natural Gas !! Bulls are Still on the Road.How's the Josh trader ??
Natural gas has a Good Setup... I am extremely sorry to update so late, I am holding it 225 Levels and I am expecting it to go towards 370-375 Levels.
As we Can Clearly see on Chart ... Natural Gas is on the rally towards Wave 3 ( Wave 3 is the longest in Impulse Wave ) so I am Clearly Betting towards 370-375 Levels.
SO,
LONG NATURAL GAS @ MARKET PRICE
TARGET @ 370-375
STOPLOSS @ OPEN
NOTE : THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE PLEASE REFER TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TAKING ANY TRADE
Have A Good Day Traders.
