Coffee Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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KT1! trade ideas
It's coffee time!See chart.
NOTE : The thing about charting is IT IS BASED on probability based on historical price actions and patterns. But the market is forward looking and to restrict oneself to say that if the price moves to A, then it would goes to B, then C is not only myopic but also underestimate the Market which is ever changing.
Price action could very well not touched the support line before retrace higher. Or price may not necessarily hit the 50% or 61.8% FIB level as precisely as we would like it to be. IT IS A GUIDE only.
When one trades on a larger time frame, then the short term price movements would matters less as you are concerned with the overall direction of the product you are trading.
I have find my heart beating way too fast and my emotions go haywire the time when I tried trading 15 minutes time frame or less. Sometimes, after keying in the order, I am already stopped out!! OUCH!!!
Leave this fast trading game to the experts who can make millions trading thousands of trades a day. They earn their marks through years of practice , I am sure.
Technical Outlook for the Coffee Market, backed by fundamentals.Fundamentals: The coffee Market has been in a strong bullish trend ever since a frost hit the brazil coffee belt in July / August 2021, followed by a period of drought. This left the world´s biggest producer of Arabica coffee with huge productivity losses for the 2021/2022 crop. That results in a really tight Arabica balance sheet for 2022, which could get worse through re-openings of coffee-to-go shops after Covid-19 lockdowns. The tense global logistic situation with low vessel space, exploding freight rates and shortage of containers and truckers is fuel to the already burning fire of less coffee supply than demand.
What can be examined from this is, that roasters tap into certified coffee inventories drowning them to 10-year lows, an extremely bullish factor ever since.
Technicals: Prices stay in an uptrend channel, that can be divided into a major channel and two minor ones. The structure stayed between those two lines while completing several Elliott-Waves. After a new ABC correction from the 160,00 cts high, prices could start a new 5-Wave up to test the upper line of the major channel at ~175,50 cts. The certified inventories sliding below the magical number of 1 million bags would support this move.
Certified Coffee Inventory
bilderupload.org
Chart
COFFEE- BUY strategyWe have clearly violated previous DC high $ 235 and COFFEE will attempt to test $ 252 again, and I think we may see $ 265-270 area in the near term.
BUYING into weakness is preferred, and I suggest we BUY $ 238-241 area preferred for a move to $ 270 profit target initially. Stop-loss should be placed $ 230 below for now.
fundamental news about coffeeHi, let's see what will happen next 9 months - i'm curious, could be a hard time for longer term inverstors again!
# La nina is coming back?
# the climatic change
# money printing
# undervalued commodity?
# best coffee crop ever 2020/21 is sold out now
# inventories declining?
# pandemic
# consumption in the coming months
# supersolarcycle
# frost and drought?
# I try to get more info from Vietnam Ethiopia and Colombia
Good time to start selling CoffeeI believe coffee still has some upside, it will probably reach $290 within a few weeks. Then the demand would start to wear off and soon it will be back to the $125 range. Coffee rarely traded above the current value, any value above $250 is short-lived. So if you are into probability, there is a very high chance coffee will start to reverse its direction. But as it's advised to never go against the trend, wait for the trend to be broken before you go into any selling positions.
Probably a good time to start selling coffee in small quantities, and increase the quantity when the coffee reaches near $300.
COFFEE- BUY strategyThe downside was maximum $ 220 and it failed to move lower.
The channel support has been working well, and now we MA-30 support $ 230. The stochastic start becoming negative, and this may push it back lower $ 228-231 range.
Startegy is BUY $ 230-234 for a move towards $ 260 for now. Stop-loss somewhere $ 218.
COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: COFFEE WK2 chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: setup still valid expecting
::: 100% gains final TP BULLS
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: cycle high for the market is near
::: 440/460 USD BULLS control the market
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: is starting the recovery right now
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP bulls is 460 USD
::: 100% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 100USD fresh demand zone
::: 460USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
COFFEE- SEL strategyIt is taking some time, but still feel that we should go further south.
we have regression channel support around $ 220. The S/H/S top patter seems clear, and the DMI is slowly turning to sell mode.
Strategy SELL $ 227-230 with stop-loss tight at $ 235. profit expectation is $ 187.
COFFEE - SELL strategyNo change in view and I think profit order might be lower to 200.00 > 190.00. Watch channel support line 217.00. The MA may turn negative and then the SELL strategy becomes strong.
For those still in need to sell, SELL $ 225-230 and profit $ 217 > 200-190.
Stop-loss above 237.00.