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Coffee Futures

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KT1! trade ideas

Will the smart money drive coffee prices even lower? According to last weeks Commitment of Traders report (COT) which breaks down the total open interest as of each Tuesday’s settlement for markets held amongst three groups of traders (Commercials, Non-Commercials and Non-Reportables) showed that Commercial Hedgers more commonly known as Smart Money Hedgers are holding near extreme bearish exposure on Coffee which totalled -65,782 contracts (previous week -70,963). At these extreme levels, commercials are important to watch as they have proven themselves over time to be correct at crucial turning points. What’s interesting with this particular soft commodity is that the current turning point illustrated in the chart, where inside trendline support, 78.6 fib and ascending trendline junction at (1) contradicts the Smart Moneys near extreme bearish positioning. However, it’s our opinion that any downside relief at this triple support cluster will only provide better selling opportunities for the next leg down. Non-Commercial traders trimmed their bullish net positions last week from the previous week by -4,598 contracts which now total 61,741 contracts. These large speculators are trend followers by definition and usually get it wrong at turning points, along with small speculators (Non-Reportables) which totalled a net position of 4,041 contracts, down -583 contracts reported the previous week (4,624 contracts).
Editors' picks
ICEUS:KC1!
by rapidrunners
37
COFFEE FUTURES - Wake up and smell the coffeeCOFFEE holded the support area of ~109.20-109.50 and made a pullback breaking the trendline (marked green on chart). However the bulls seem to be sleepy so I believe the trend continues to be bearish and we have to monitor how price will react to make our decision. Personally I'm considering a short position around the area marked on the chart. Potential profit to blue line which is the next support area. So as mentioned on the chart we monitor price and have our finger on the trigger. Good luck traders. Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become better at trading commodities.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by A_Bouras
Drink Coffee and make money from the market Can Coffee commodities help us to predict the stock market ? I don't know and this is based on my personal observation and not historical facts, so take it with a pinch of salt. Look at the Coffee chart carefully! It starts to reach the peak in Dec 2019 when it was at a high of 142. Two months later on 18 Feb 20, the SPX500 followed. Go google yourself and you would find a ton of media news and gurus convincing the reasons why. That is why I said reading news are more for entertainment as it leaves me nothing but more question marks in my head. Coffee finally soften its selling pressure when it went to a low of 94.75 for 2.5 months before it rebounded. Last week on 10 Aug 20, it finally broke out of the bearish trend line and look set to continue the bullish trend. However, it looks like the SPX500 has rebounded much faster than Coffee. Are you willing to bet on your cup of coffee that it will go higher from here while watching the stock market ? I leave the choice to you. Do consider your portfolio allocation to commodities, capital management, position sizing, stop loss and risk management. Trade safely
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by dchua1969