Crudeoil is near a strong support one can buy with a tight stopCrudeoil is near a strong support one can buy with a tight stop
MCL1! trade ideas
CL 4 hr. maxing-out on wave 4!1). SELL @ 66.97 with a tight stop! 2). Wave 4 is likely over! 3). 3). Sentiment is "BEARISH"! 4). Volume has petered out! 5). Banks are selling!!
Geopolitical tensions is making oil fun to tradeFor the unexperienced traders, be very careful trading NYSE:CL , you can get caught anytime wether you are long or short right or wrong.
Nevertheless, if you follow my LIS, you can have a clear picture of where oil is heading to.
Right now, oil is set up as bearish but it can change in a matter of a bomb. Jokes aside, the LIS stands at 67.8. So below still bearish, above turn bullish.
OIL Bullish BiasCurrently sitting on my hands but closely watching oil, especially after Iran & Israel
Consolidation Protocol active. Need to see external range taken. I will not trade inside this range. Favoring longs.
Think accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Right now its in the accumulation phase. Manipulation phase is next. Preferably sweeping external low first then distribution higher to bsl.
Relative equal highs / LRLR at 114.29 first long term target.
Final target are the inefficiencies at 130 - 150.
Oil Price: Breakout or Fakeout? Watch This Zone Closely Technical Overview:
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside.
The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point.
Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone.
Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels.
Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below).
Bearish Case:
Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81.
Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal.
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears.
US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand.
China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook.
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout . Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
Crude Oil Testing $75 Resistance with Key Price Movements Targets:
- T1 = $78.00
- T2 = $80.50
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $74.00
- S2 = $72.50
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Crude Oil.
**Key Insights:**
Crude Oil has been holding strong amid mixed macroeconomic data, with traders noting resilience around the $75 price level acting as a key support. Recent production cuts by OPEC+ have further tightened supply, providing support for bullish sentiment. Dollar weakness also boosts commodity prices, as global markets eye policy decisions from central banks.
Additionally, technical indicators suggest upward momentum is building. RSI levels are nearing overbought zones but remain favorable for a continued upward push. Moving averages show upward crossover patterns, signaling strong bullish possibilities.
**Recent Performance:**
Crude Oil has seen fluctuating performance over the last month, with prices rebounding from lows of $72 and climbing steadily to current levels. A temporary pullback earlier in the week was followed by renewed buying interest, demonstrating the strength of underlying bullish sentiment despite volatile macroeconomic conditions.
**Expert Analysis:**
Industry analysts highlight that geopolitical risks and tightening supply conditions could lead to further upward price pressure. The $75.13 level corresponds to a critical juncture that traders are closely watching for breakouts. A breach above this level would likely signal further upside momentum, potentially reaching the $80 mark as broader optimism prevails.
**News Impact:**
Recent news surrounding OPEC+ production strategies and lower inventories in key storage hubs like Cushing have contributed to bullish sentiment. Simultaneously, macroeconomic factors — including U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve remarks — are influencing crude oil’s directional moves, albeit in a secondary role.
**Trading Recommendation:**
A bullish position is recommended on Crude Oil as it continues to show potential for a breakout above current resistance levels. Traders should aim for targets of $78.00 and $80.50, using stop-loss orders at $74.00 and $72.50 to mitigate downside risks. Current technical setups and macroeconomic signals support upward momentum, making this a favorable opportunity for disciplined trading.
#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Many gaps on different time frames and I only marked the ones from the daily. Next targets above for the bulls are 80 and the 2023-09 high at 82.91. I think we can see a futures gap up above 81 and then another huge pullback. Supply shock for Oil is still not there or we would not see the market pull back that much. Given the current macro risk we can only expect higher prices but the swings are too wild for me tbh.
current market cycle: bull trend but trading range on 1h tf
key levels: 67 - 83
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. Their only issue is that we are still seeing 5-10% intraday swings to both sides and only if the pull backs become smaller and we leave gaps behind, can we go meaningful higher and stay there. We have two open gaps on the daily chart but market would have to stay above 70 now to confirm them. 77 is the next target for the bulls which would be a higher high above the 2024-04 high.
Invalidation is below 70 - if we drop below, we most likely continue sideways inside the big range until we maybe get another big breakout above
bear case: US bombs on Iran. Interesting to see if we stay below 77 and move sideways. I can not see it but I obviously did not saw the 11% pullback on Monday as well. That was insane. Best bears can hope for is to move sideways and continue with the deep pullbacks. Bears can also make big money on these wild swings, which is not something seen in strong bull trends.
Invalidation is above 77
short term: Bullish but too cautious to trade it. Future gap ups were sold heavily and market has not found acceptance above 73 for the entire week. Still expecting 77 to get hit and there is no reason why we can’t see 80$ on oil over next 2 weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: No bigger opinion other than “don’t be a bear here”. No idea if market can sustain the buying and stay above 70 for longer or even 80 for that matter. Too many big risks which will move the market big time.
MCL to $71.50Oil has just crossed a strong upwards trend line with 4 touch points indicating a move to the downside. Price target $71.50 in the short term.
Because of the situation in the middle east at the current moment, price has the potential to move back towards the previous swing high. If price closes above the opposite trend line I will cut all of my position.
WTI(20250620)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, and the voting ratio showed that internal differences were increasing. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
74.33
Support and resistance levels:
77.40
76.25
75.51
73.15
72.40
71.26
Trading strategy:
If it breaks through 73.15, consider buying, and the first target price is 75.00
If it breaks through 72.40, consider selling, and the first target price is 71.26
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today.
Fundamental analysis:
The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
Crude Oil Pushing Into Supply Zone — Watching for Breakout or ReCrude Oil (CL) has been trending strongly bullish today — price is now testing the red supply zone overhead.
I am watching very closely:
✅ If buyers can break this zone with strong momentum, I will look for a breakout continuation trade to ride the trend higher.
✅ If buyers get trapped and order flow shifts bearish inside this zone, I will look for a short opportunity targeting the green demand zone below.
Important: I always study buyer and seller behavior inside the zones first — no blind trades! I also use order flow tools to catch traps and spot aggressive traders on the wrong side of the move.
Patience first — waiting for the zone to tell me what to do. ✅
WTI(20250619)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed's June meeting - kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row, and the dot plot showed two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expected no rate cuts this year rose to 7, and the rate cut expectations for next year were cut to 1. Powell continued to call for uncertainty, and the current economic situation is suitable for waiting and watching. He also expects tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
72.69
Support and resistance levels:
75.60
74.51
73.81
71.58
70.88
69.79
Trading strategy:
Upward breakthrough of 73.81, consider entering the market to buy, the first target price is 74.51
Downward breakthrough of 72.69, consider entering the market to sell, the first target price is 71.58
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis:
Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today.
Fundamental analysis:
Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
WADZ & the Petrodollar RevivalGlobal FX Shift: The Rise of WADZ (2025–2026)
In mid-2025, a war between Iran and Israel spirals fast. Iran strikes hard, Israel’s defenses go offline from cyberattacks, and the U.S. surprisingly doesn’t intervene.
Instead, America steps in quietly, setting up a “peacekeeping” zone along the Jordan-Israel border. It’s called the West Asia Demilitarized Zone (WADZ) — but behind the scenes, it’s about control, not peace.
Oil jumps to $115.
Markets flip. USD/JPY and USD/TRY spike. EUR/USD slides.
Then the U.S. launches WZ-Digital, a USD-backed oil coin. Now, all oil in the region trades through America.
OPEC fractures. Saudi and UAE fall in line.
China gets iced out. USD/CNY shoots past 8.30.
In the desert, a secret U.S. city appears: The Watchtower — a hub that manages oil, data, and borders.
Regional FX Snapshot (2026)
Europe: Gas crisis deepens. EUR/USD drops to 0.95. East Europe leans on U.S.
China: Crypto-oil push fails. Capital flight triggers USD/CNY → 8.80.
Russia: Oil-for-yuan helps short-term, but ruble stays shaky.
Africa: Egypt & Morocco adopt WZ-Digital. Local currencies stay weak.
Southeast Asia: Dual oil trade (USD/WZ). SGD steady, MYR & IDR choppy.
(BRICKS+)
Latin America: Brazil, Argentina resist — then cave. USD demand surges.
Bottom Line:
By end of 2026, USD isn’t just money — it’s a global system.
WADZ quietly reprograms the rules of energy and trade.
No invasion, no headlines. Just quiet, total control.
Bye guys
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00Crude oil market analysis:
Last week's crude oil was very exaggerated because it broke the super suppression of 65.00 on the daily line. Once this position was broken, crude oil began to be standard. This is also the result of our many predictions of the cycle. Crude oil purchases will continue to soar this week. In addition, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will make it difficult for crude oil to fall in the short term. I estimate that there is a possibility of repair. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. In addition, the delivery period of crude oil futures contracts will also cause it to fluctuate violently again.
Fundamental analysis:
There are many fundamental analyses and data recently. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00
CL1! barking bearish trend. As observed in the weekly time frame, CL1 has broken a bearish trend that emerged after June 2022. Currently, CL1 exhibits bullish sentiment, and based on global news, it is likely to continue its upward trajectory.
ID: 2025 - 0146.16.2025
Trade #14 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 60 DTE (days to expiration).
BULLISH options trade executed on Crude Oil. Once price level of $75.00 gets taken out, this trade will get adjusted to secure a risk-free trade. Targets will be 100% ROI based upon this being a balanced bullish butterfly construct.
Defined risk
Defined reward
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Crude Oil - Cup and HandlePotential Cup and Handle
I have a trigger upper the top .. potential short before the new long wave
Actual we can have completed the 3 of 5.
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis:
We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today.
Fundamental analysis:
Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
The Hidden Power of Median Price: A Recent Oil Market Case StudyIntroduction
In the world of trading, most market participants focus on popular patterns and oscillators, often missing the true “magnet” zones that drive price action. A recent move in Crude Oil (CL) perfectly illustrates how the prior year’s median price (PYM) can act as a powerful, objective key level—one that offers traders an informational edge when recognized and used properly.
Case Study: Oil’s Rally to the Prior Year Median
What Happened?
• Catalyst: Crude Oil (CL) surged several dollars overnight due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the risk of war in the Middle East.
• Key Level Test: Instead of stalling at arbitrary points, price rallied directly to the prior year’s median price—a level rarely plotted by standard indicators.
• Market Reaction: Upon reaching this PYM, oil rejected sharply not once, but twice in consecutive sessions, creating what many would recognize as a double top.
• Missed Context: While most traders saw only the double top pattern, those aware of the PYM understood the deeper reason for this reversal, adding conviction to their trade ideas.
Why the Median Price Matters
• Objective Anchor: The median price of the prior year is a statistically robust, non-arbitrary level that reflects the “center of gravity” for a full year’s worth of price action.
• Institutional Awareness: Professionals and trading algorithms often use these levels as reference points for liquidity and mean reversion, even if retail traders overlook them.
• Trade Conviction: When a double top or reversal forms at a prior year’s median price, it transforms a generic pattern into a high-conviction setup, providing a clear, data-driven reason for price to reverse or stall.
Data Snapshot: CL Price Action (June 2025)
Date High Low Close Event/Reaction
June 12, 2025 $77.52 $69.50 $73.96 Sharp rally to PYM, first rejection
June 14, 2025 $74.02 $71.48 $72.98 Second push, another rejection
June 15, 2025 $74.22 $73.19 $73.69 Double top confirmed
The $74–$77 area aligns with the 2024 median/average price for WTI crude oil, reinforcing its significance as a magnet and reversal zone.
Lessons for Traders
• Beyond Oscillators: Oscillators and generic chart patterns often lack context and can lead to false signals. Key levels like the median price explain why price reverses, not just where patterns form.
• Edge Through Awareness: Plotting prior year medians and other session-based key levels can turn ordinary setups into high-probability trades by revealing hidden order flow and institutional logic.
• Professional Mindset: Treating these levels as “market memory” aligns your approach with how professionals view the market, offering a real edge over retail-centric tools.
Conclusion
The recent oil rally and rejection at the prior year’s median price is a compelling demonstration of the power of objective, price-based key levels. While most traders saw only a double top, those aware of the PYM had a clear, data-driven reason for heightened conviction and precise execution. Incorporating such levels into your trading toolkit can provide a true informational edge—one that most indicator vendors and platforms still ignore.
Ready to take your trading to the next level? Start plotting median price levels and see the difference for yourself!
