Zone Modification Before Trading SessionThis is a short 20 minute video on modifying the Oil chart for todays U.S. Market trading session.
MCL1! trade ideas
Turbo Tuesdays ? Crude OilNice ranged day on Monday leading me to think today won't be as expansive.
Nether less I am looking for Bearish movement but I would like some sort of BSL to be taken meaning I am anticipating a retracement come NY open 0830est roughly.
15min FVG and the 2hr -OB are areas if price was to retrace to I would look for shorts.
Targets are bellow the weekly ssl and the eql's.
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks.
current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it
key levels: 74 - 78
bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74.
Invalid below 73.
bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood.
Invalid above 78.
short term: Bearish. Play the channel.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Still short since 82.69.
trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
next sell opportunityI consider this scenario and will look for confirmation at indicated levels to short
Crude Oil: Bottoming or Failed Rally Attempt?Crude Oil (September)
Last week’s close: Settled at 77.16, down 1.12 on Friday and 1.48 on the week
WTI Crude Oil futures opened higher Sunday night amid Middle East tensions. A deadly rock strike on Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah has eroded the hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, a firm tape overnight has dissipated, and Crude Oil futures are testing into the gap open and major three-star support at 76.0r-76.40. This support level is one in which price action tested multiple times last week and a higher low today will help build out an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 77.69-77.81**, 77.98-78.08**, 78.64-78.92***, 79.22**, 79.81***, 80.70***, 81.30***
Pivot: 77.25
Support: 76.04-76.40****, 75.71-75.87*, 75.08-75.32**, 74.55-74.91***
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Disclaimers:
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Crude**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the zone between 73.50 and 72.42, coinciding with a key level at 72.69.
Monday Drab Crude Oil We opened with a large Gap to the upside...
So far we have not moved in any direction with any purpose.
To stay bearish running into NY the DAILY -OB should be respected if we retrace back to that level.
Closing the NWOG with a displacement candle would be advantageous for sell side to be taken and the two targets I have noted with the magnets.
Technical Analysis: Crude Oil || MCX
Trade Setup:
Short Position: Below 6450
Target: 6400
Stop Loss: 6490
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Remember: Technical analysis is just one tool in a trader's arsenal. It's essential to combine it with other factors and conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Only question right now is, is that minor bear trend line support at 78.6 holding or do we break below? Friday was a big bear bar closing on it’s low and we can expect follow through but we don’t know if we get a lower high first. Not more magic to it. Horrible place to initiate trades, you have to be patient and let the market show you where it wants to go.
comment: Bears answered my question on Monday and just broke below and closed below. Whatever macro dude’s who “know” Oil writing, this market wants to go down and it’s going down. Oil found an intermediate bottom exactly at the 50% pb that is on my chart for many months but it’s the same for Gold as we are in a tight bear channel down and as long as it holds, it’s bearish. 74 is the first target the bears will probably hit over the next 2 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 74-83
bull case: Bulls failed on Monday and buying new lows for scalps and they are also quick to exit those longs. Got nothing for them with the current structure. If they manage to break above 80 again, it’s likely that bears give up until we hit 81ish again but that’s a weak argument at best. Another possibility is that bulls will fight for 76, since it’s the middle of the range and where most volume was traded over the last months.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments on their side and the bear channel is the main pattern to be traded here. 74 is my target for the next 2 weeks. Any pullback from the bulls should stay below 79, which is also the daily 20ema. Above that price and bears have failed and might step aside until market reaches 80/81 again.
Invalidation is above 79.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until clear break below 78 with follow through. Not interested in buying.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.64 and now we are at 77.16. Outlook was good since the low was 76.03 and that was a trade for 260 ticks.
short term: Bearish for 74. Any stop fro that would be 79.5
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Took most off from my shorts from 82.58, at 77.
chart update: Added bear channel and I see this down move as a two legged move inside the big trading range.
How to stay current with this strategy What's good everyone, This another video following up from my first video. I wanted to go over how to stay current with what the market is creating. Let me know if you have any question I will be glad to help .
My zone set ups and Entries I decided to post my first video Ever... on how I get my zones on the chart & how I get my entries. Ive been working hard the last 4 years on becoming a full time trader and feel good about this trading style. Ive gone through so many styles on how to trade. This has been amazing for me. I love scalping , in and out of the market, I've learned I don't need to make 100 ticks every day. If this works for you awesome. Again I'm no content creator so have no idea what I'm doing lol.
CRUDE OIL: 21 Jul, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
Forecast: Bearish
Where are we in Elliott wave analysis? The chart on the left shows that we are bearish with the 3rd wave (Labeled wave (iii)-orange). Basically it will continue to push down even lower.
(1D Chart) The broader context suggests that wave (ii)-orange seems to have ended at the high of 84.52, and wave (iii)-orange is now unfolding to push lower. It is important that the price consistently remains below the high of 84.52 to maintain this view.
(4H Chart): The short-term outlook shows that since the high of 84.52, wave iii-grey is unfolding and subdividing into wave ((3))-navy. The price could continue to push lower, approaching the lows at 77.58 or 72.48. The price must always remain below 83.10 to maintain this view.
US Oil: Market Structure Shift
🚀 **US Oil: Market Structure Shift & FVG Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity!** 🚀
US Oil has been making waves in the market! 🌊 After a significant move that took out the sell-side liquidity, we've witnessed a powerful market structure shift. This pivotal change has created an exciting fair value gap (FVG) 🎯, setting its sights on the buy-side liquidity.
This shift signals a potential bullish momentum 📈, providing traders with lucrative opportunities to capitalize on the market's upward trajectory. As the FVG narrows, the target on buy-side liquidity becomes clearer, making it a critical zone for traders to watch. 👀
Stay tuned and keep your eyes on US Oil as it continues to navigate through this dynamic market landscape! 🌟💹
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Sell Sep crude 78.72 on limit if filled, stop at 80.72
Crude Oil broke key levels. Trying to sell Sept. crude on a small bounce to 78.72 on limit. if filled, stop at 80.72, tgt at 75.72
Thursday Trouble Crude OilWe are nearing the end of the week and have had some nice movement heading lower..
I have marked out the Previous Day Wick ( PD Wick ) If price is to retrace today for NY this is where I would expect it to stop and head lower / consolidate at least.
The Draw on Price are bellow :
Daily +OB
Daily EQL'S
DAILY FVG
Light Crude Oil Futures Down to 74$Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to Short Light Crude Oil Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The target is $74 within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
Crude breaks support - againJust when the bulls thought that crude may have found some support, the sellers came out and smashed their hopes. While crude was a touch firmer in early trade, the gains were coming from a lower base. Yesterday, front-month WTI appeared to find some support around $77.50, having sliced below $80 at the end of last week. But it didn’t take too much effort for the sellers to push prices lower again, taking oil down a dollar below support. Could that mark some seller exhaustion? This kind of support break certainly has done recently, with prices seemingly set to continue lower, only to reverse sharply. Certainly, the downside pressure has been fairly relentless over the past three weeks. But as things stand, any upside move from here would look like a correction, at least initially, rather than a flip from the current downward trend. Yet stranger things have happened. While the charts suggest that a retest of the June low is quite likely, it’s difficult to know how much resolve the bears have currently. One thing seems reasonable to state, and that is that the current oil market isn’t forecasting a period of strong global economic growth.
Potential Long oversold and lowest price range previously, with a high potential to jump back to the previous high with the lowest risk.
CRUDE BREAKOUT - MCX - JUNE 24Technical Pattern Analysis
Pattern: Potential Bullish Breakout from trendline
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Analysis:
Crude oil is showing signs of a potential bullish breakout. A sustained move above 6500 level could signal a bullish trend, with initial targets at 6600-6700. Positive sentiment is supported by a decline in crude inventories and supply disruptions due to wildfires in Canada.
Note: This is a short-term analysis based on the given information. It's essential to consider broader market conditions, fundamental factors, and other technical indicators for a comprehensive outlook.
Potential Trading Strategy:
Buy: Above 6500 with a stop-loss below 6490.
Target: 6600-6700
IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS DO LET ME KNOW :)
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Oil (CL) Turning Lower in Elliott Wave Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)).
Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 82.04 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.52. It then resumed lower in wave (iii) towards 76.40 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 77.51. Expect further downside to complete wave (v) of ((iii)), then it should rally in wave ((iv)) before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 84.55 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Monday evening Pondering - Crude OilSo as I stated in my last post, we would have a short range day as per previous large ranged day.
We did attack the SSL as target 1 however Im looking at price heading higher to the BSL and 1hr FVG before we head down...
Lets see what Asia and early London does..
Will update nearer to NY for Turbo Tuesday...
Oil Price on Track to Test Monthly LowThe price of oil appears to be on track to test the monthly low ($80.81) as it continues to pull back from last week’s high ($83.74).
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The recent rally in the price of oil seems to have stalled ahead of the April high ($87.67) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses ahead of overbought territory, with a breach below $80.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards the $78.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to $79.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region.
Next area of interest comes in around $76.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but the price of oil may face range bound conditions should it track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA ($79.40).
Failure to test the monthly low ($80.81) may push the price oil back towards $83.30 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly high ($84.52).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Crude Oil hit Major Resistance, 10% Down until early AugustIn my latest analysis of the Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:CL1! ) market, I've identified key medium-term resistance and support levels. The resistance at $84.30 was ideal for a short position, with a trailing-stop set at $83.80 to manage risk. My target for this short position is $74.50, suggesting a significant profit potential of over 10%. Considering that most significant downtrends in oil take about 20 days, I expect the price to reach $74.50 around the end of July or early August.
I also noticed consolidation zones between $82.00 and $77.00, which may cause temporary price consolidation. The medium-term support at $74.50 is crucial for considering a long position, indicating a possible upward reversal.
My strategy is to short at $84.30 (already done) with a stop-loss at $83.80 (to minimize losses) and aim for a profit at $74.50, while closely monitoring the consolidation zones for any signs of price stalling or reversal. If all goes according my plan, I also might consider a long position at around $74.
What is your take on OIL for the next month?
