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MCL1! trade ideas

Crude Continued ConsolidationCrude Oil futures have had a very volatile start to the year with prices pushing above the 200-day moving average and falling back down to that level after testing the highs from May. The Crude Inventories Report released today showed a higher than expected print at 3.463M while forecasting 2.200M, which is the 5th consecutive report of worse than expected figures. Prices now are looking to re-test the 200-day moving average and traders may watch this figure to act as a catalyst either up or down for near term price action. The Crude Oil contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance. Looking at the large swings in the chart over a few week period, traders can see how wide the market swings back and forth. Having the ability to choose your size can help traders with entry, exit, and overall execution planning. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CLH2025
by CME_Group
Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level. Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it. The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts. What should a trader do now? a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn. b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL. A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL. By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action: 1. Break below the CL 2. Retest the CL 3. Move downward
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). Crude Oil Futures Update Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle. As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch: Key Observations: On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone). We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade. Scenario 1: Down and Back Up Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels. Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80 If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop. For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
2
Oil Cypher, decent structure. Full plan Pretty standard set up for me, I typically trade this in a much lower time frame. Procedure rarely changes, find structure, use all of the patterns and build area of interest. Using a combination of a Cypher and Lighting/1.2 for entry also a sub cypher for target. Add levels posted in chart. use boxes for stop management. 1st yellow box move stop to BE, 2nd tp1 and 3rd tp 2. I trade Oil a bit differently if anyone is wondering as far as Tp's, Feel free to use standard off the top same process. I will update this if and when time allows. Best of luck guys 2025 is going to big!! 1st entry was 3o minute Pin bar, bought open of next candle. Late and 74$ was .414 and even handle, all things I have interest in.
NYMEX:CLH2025Long
by Hiddenharmonicstrading
2
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump. In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange. Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March. If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far. In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included. The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year. Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show. Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power. Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China. Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports. No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out. Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024. The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA. It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022. // Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
NYMEX:CL2!
by PandorraResearch
2
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy. In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively. 2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures o Contract Specifications: Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity. o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL): Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract. Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies. o Margins: Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility). Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract. The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements: U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices. Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices. Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include: Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices. U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days. Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are: Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward. U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand. Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles: Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures. Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets. 7. Risk Management Strategies Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include: Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings. Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades. 8. Conclusion Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market. By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
Trump’s National Energy Emergency Aims to Press Oil Prices LowerWhat goes up eventually comes down. This is even more true for oil prices amid a range of forces at play. The recent rally has been popped by significant headwinds facing crude oil prices. WTI Crude Oil (“WTI) has trended down sharply amid sluggish demand and a surplus in supply. Global oil consumption has remained tepid, with China's economic recovery slower than expected and U.S. fuel demand showing seasonal weakness. WTI prices rallied sharply higher from mid-Dec until mid-Jan, driven by optimism over Chinese demand rebound expectations in 2025. Adding to that was the Biden administration’s tightening of sanctions on Russian crude, targeting producers and over 180 vessels transporting 1.7 million bpd (~25% of Russia’s exports). WTI optimism quickly faded as Trump took office on 20/Jan. He signed an executive order to boost oil & gas production, removing barriers and reversing Biden’s climate policies. Since then, WTI prices have pulled back 7.74%. Declaring a national energy emergency , Trump introduced measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals, aiming to lower costs & increase energy independence. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump called on OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, to increase production and lower crude prices, triggering a fifth straight session of losses for WTI. Source: EIA The only tailwind to WTI prices amid all this oil gloom was the decline in crude inventories for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA reported a 1-million-barrel drop for the week ending 17/Jan, though it fell short of analysts’ 2.1-million-barrel forecast . EIA FORECASTS WTI PRICES TO TREND DOWN EIA in its latest STEO estimates WTI prices to fall throughout 2025 and 2026 on expectations of rising supply. Source: EIA STEO WTI prices are expected to average USD 70.31/barrel in 2025 & USD 62.46/barrel in 2026. The EIA expects OPEC+ to maintain production cuts to counter rising non-OPEC supply. Lower prices are likely to curb U.S. drilling activity and investment, resulting in only a modest production increase in 2026. After hitting a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024, U.S. crude output is projected to rise to 13.5 million bpd in 2025 and grow by less than 1% in 2026, averaging 13.6 million bpd as price pressures slow activity. This hints that Trump may have limited influence over U.S. production, as price remains the key driver. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey , U.S. oil firms need an average oil price of USD 64/barrel to drill profitably. TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL POTENTIAL BEARISH TREND ON THE HORIZON WTI crude oil futures have fallen sharply since 16/Jan. Along with it, the gap between the 9-day and 21-day moving averages has narrowed. The 9-day MA, which formed a golden cross on 13/Dec, now hints at a potential trend shift. On 21/Jan, prices closed below the 9-day MA and are now near the 21-day MA, signalling a waning bullish trend. WTI prices started the week above the monthly R2 resistance level but has since fallen below it. RSI began declining on 15/Jan after entering the overbought zone and dropped below its RSI-based moving average on 16/Jan. The MACD signalled weakening bullish momentum since 16/Jan, confirming a trend reversal and the start of a bearish trend on 23/Jan. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS For the week ending 14/Jan, managed money’s net long positioning in WTI crude oil (futures & options) fell 6.4% WoW, ending four weeks of sequential gains. Short positions surged 19.8% to 47,252 lots, while long positions declined 2.7% to 277,944 lots. Source: CME QuikStrike Scaling back of net long positions by managed money may be a signal of bearish expectations ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Trump’s push for lower crude prices will intensify downward pressure on WTI in an oversupplied market. Threats of tariffs further risk dampening global trade, delaying an oil demand recovery. Do not write off the likelihood of a shock serving as a tailwind to oil prices. For now, pressure remains on oil prices to cool off in the near term, with ample forces pushing them lower. Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view on WTI prices using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them more accessible while creating alternatives for granular hedging. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2025) expiring on 19/Feb (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 75.60/barrel • Target: 71.50/barrel • Stop: 77.00/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +410 ((75.60 – 71.50) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -140 ((75.60 – 77.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.9x CME Group has made a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. TradingView will be launching The Leap starting on 3rd February 2025. New and upcoming traders could hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by mintdotfinance
6
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We have a first decent pull-back and so far every dip buyer lost money. We are at the daily 20ema and missed the breakout price by 4 ticks. I think the odds favor the bulls to get another leg up and try 80 again. 5 consecutive daily bear bars is a bear micro channel and buying into this is a bad buy. Bulls will probably wait for more confirmation first. So best thing to do here is nothing. If the bulls get another leg up, I highly doubt they will get anything beyond 80, if they make it that far. The market would have never pulled-back that much in a strong trend. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment around 74. Below 73 this rally is over and we will aim for 67 much more than 80. A strong bullish daily bar could shift the momentum again and another try at reaching 80. Above the 4h 20ema and probably 76, this becomes a decent long again. I would wait for that confirmation before joining the bulls. Invalidation is below 73. bear case: Bears printed an endless pull-back down from 79.45 and the 4h 20ema was big resistance for the entire week. If bears just keep at it, we can continue all the way down from where we started end of December but if bulls gain momentum and go above 76, I doubt many bears want to hold short in fear of going to 80. Invalidation is above 80. short term: Neutral. I need confirmation for either side before I want to take a trade. The 4h and 1h is on the bear side and the daily looks still bullish enough for me to now want to get chopped around between 73 - 76. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude Oil: Testing Resistance Amid Bearish MomentumCrude Oil Update (1-Hour Timeframe) Chart Overview: Crude Oil is trading within a downward channel, respecting the resistance trendline, which aligns with the 50 EMA, signaling sustained bearish momentum. The price attempted a breakout but faced rejection at the resistance, confirming the downtrend. The support zone near 6,420 has held well but remains under pressure. Key Levels: Resistance: 6550 - 6570 Support: 6420 - 6400 Bearish Target: 6350 - 6300 (if support breaks) Strategy: Monitor for a breakout or rejection at the trendline for directional confirmation. A move below 6,420 signals further downside, while a breakout above 6,550 may reverse the trend. Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions. Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Shalvisharma5
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!): Setting New LimitsWe’ve been patiently waiting for an entry at $58, but the market hasn’t reached our level. After reassessing the chart, we believe it’s now more profitable to play CL1! as a long following what appears to have been a fake breakout. Recent developments, including Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency to “unlock the liquid gold under our feet” and prioritize U.S. oil and gas development, could bolster bullish sentiment in the energy sector. If our wave count is correct, we are currently in intra wave 2 of wave ((iii)). If this setup holds, a target of at least $115 seems achievable. We are placing our limit order and will patiently wait to get filled. Key Levels at the moment: Support Zone: $67.70–$64.40 Resistance Zone: $85–$88
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
2025-01-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Pretty much tapped out of this market at the moment. I thought it looked decent that we could bottom out at 75 but another strong spike down to 74.5 is wild. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 73 - 80 bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment at 73 tomorrow. Either bottom out or we likely see 70 next. The buying was so climactic upwards but now it’s the same for the selling. Tough market for me. Got honestly nothing for the bulls until they print higher highs again and trade consecutive 1h bars above 76.5. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears just took this over from the high and we are selling every little rip. Amazing to see but I still think it’s tough to trade. I won’t turn bear now right at the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Below 74 we could test 72 next and afterwards there is no more support until 70. Invalidation is above 76.5. short term: Either it finds support at the daily 20ema around 74 or it might es will just continue down to 70 again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Shorting 76 has been profitable since Tuesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 75.5 bull case: Bears are not getting anywhere with this weak selling. It does look much more like a pull-back that will be bought soon than a bear trend that will accelerate. Bulls want to keep it above 76 and try again to get above 80. They are trading far above the daily ema and inside a perfect bull channel. They have all the arguments to buy this tomorrow and make bears cover again. 75 is a possibility but I would be very cautious with longs below. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: 3 consecutive daily bear bars but they are overlapping and market is still above 76. The next touch of this bull channel will most likely be bought and bears know it. Best they can hope for here is to stay below 77 and go sideways for longer. Invalidation is above 80.5. short term: Looking for longs around 76 for target 80. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market did not find acceptance above 77.4 today and the sell-off at 2 p.m. cet was strong enough to just short it but it was going fast and I also missed it because I’m dumb.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CL Bullish and Bearish Plays for the WeekBULLISH PLAY (IMMEDIATE POST-CPI TRADE ONLY) *VALID ONLY TODAY FOLLOWING CPI NEWS RELEASE* Entry Conditions: - Wait for sell-side liquidity raid near 77.20 during CPI volatility - Look for deep retracement as entry opportunity - Confirm failed breakdown with reversal into trading range Target: July 2024 high (79.67 area) *This bullish setup expires at end of today's session - do not take this trade after today's CPI volatility settles* Note: The bullish scenario is specifically designed to capitalize on potential CPI news volatility today only, while the bearish scenario is structured as an end-of-week trade setup. BEARISH PLAY (END OF WEEK TRADE) CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: - 77.20 sell-side liquidity MUST remain INTACT for trade to be valid Entry Conditions: - Wait for upward expansion following CPI news - Time entry for end-of-week (Thursday/Friday Ideal) selling pressure - Look for market structure break as entry trigger - VOID if 77.20 gets raided Target: 77.00 area
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LiquidityTracker
Crude Oil - Moving to light resistance, so we can move up?Hi guys, we are looking into Crude Oil today again, looking into retesting the weak resistnce level which was recently formulated, we have a slight Ascending Channel which has been formulated looking to break it, then we will see what would be next Entry: 77.50 Target 78.60 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DG55Capital
Crude Oil: Short Strategy Recommended for Next Week -Key Insights: Crude oil has shown a bullish outlook in the short term, but underlying bearish indicators suggest a cautious trading approach. Market dynamics may shift due to geopolitical events, potential oil surpluses, and rising interest rates. Traders should watch for critical economic data that may influence oil volatility. -Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$74.00, T2=$71.00 with stop levels of S1=$80.00, S2=$82.00. This aligns with the current price of $77.67, positioning for potential downward movement while maintaining necessary risk management. -Recent Performance: Crude oil recently breached key resistance levels, reflecting strong bullish momentum, yet is now at a crucial juncture where downward pressure may emerge. Price fluctuations indicate the need for monitoring as oscillations could lead to notable shifts in market sentiment. -Expert Analysis: Analysts express mixed sentiments; short-term optimism hinges on current bullish movements alongside warnings of future market corrections. Monitoring fluctuations in interest rates and their impact on crude prices remains vital, emphasizing the careful approach due to potential volatility. -News Impact: Geopolitical tensions, including alignments of Saudi Arabia with BRICS nations and ongoing sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are pivotal. Anticipated economic indicators, particularly from the Bank of Japan, could indirectly influence the oil market by impacting the US dollar's strength, which is crucial for crude oil pricing globally.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
#202503 - priceactiontds - weekly update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 4th consecutive bullish weekly bar but the tails above are getting bigger (weekly chart). The volume is also increasing, which could be a sign of more participants thinking it’s a good time to scale into shorts and out of longs. If there would be a run on oil because macro reason xyz, volume would have been bigger already is what I reckon. Does not matter much though, because bears need to do more before we can turn more bearish. First decent pull-back will be bought, so it will most likely be better to look for longs after a pull-back than to try and pick the top. current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend key levels: 77 - 81 bull case: Bulls are in full control and want to break above the 2024-04 high 80.03. We are close enough to expect market to get there soon. Problem for the bulls is, this rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The last time we printed 5 consecutive bull bars on the weekly chart was mid of 2023. For now we can’t expect to see bigger bearish price action because bulls have been making money buying every small dip. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears have made the first lower high which now looks like an ugly head & shoulders. I think the odds of this breaking down for a measured move to sub 72 are very low. Much more likely is that bears would exit fast on another push up and try again to keep it below 80. The current lower bull channel line runs through 75ish and it’s reasonable to expect a bigger pull-back over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 80. short term: Bullish for 80 and then looking to short for a bigger pull-back down to the bull channel. A strong close above 80 would change my mind. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential bear targets.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Crude OIL SHORT Today Ran For +4R BreakdownNYMEX:CL1! "Successful trading has always been about understand the convictions, the strength and the weakness of buyers and sellers. Once you understand what the other traders are doing in the market, you can successfully trade with them." -Michael Valtos Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt Stop / +4R Run... Well Done!! Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
NYMEX:MCL1!Education
by TreyHighPwr
2
Crude Oil -Can use the fundamentals to push the strong resitanceHi guys we are going to take a look into CL. The Black Gold has had some interesting fundamental events recently , with the Biden administration imposing a few important and key tarrifs over the Russian exports of OIL. Additionally on a technical preview as we visited this asset a few times, it has broken a few very key support levels, and the price started actually moving in a good direction.Previously we saw the price move sideweays for almost 2 months. Entry: 77.50 Target 1: 78.50 Target 2: 79.50 Target 3. 80.50 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DG55Capital