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WTI1! trade ideas

CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Oil Price Recovery Emerges Ahead of January LowThe price of oil recovers ahead of the January low ($64.37) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory. Crude Oil Price Outlook The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly low ($65.27) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar. A breach above the monthly high ($74.41) opens up the $75.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $76.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region but the recent rebound in crude may end up short-lived should the price of oil respond to the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($74.73). Failure to hold above $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil back towards the monthly low ($65.27), with a close below $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a test of the January low ($64.37). --- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Oil9.11.24 it turns out that this video only talks about oil. there were other important markets such as the dollar and the currencies and also some commentaries on other markets that I've been looking at when a routine basis with these videos.... but there were some special things that occurred on this particular Market and it gave me a chance to talk about my concept of the smart money that can do things with the price action that can really mess up your Trading because what is good for you in your mind really is a bad trade decision because you're not really thinking about how the smart money creates patterns that are great for them and bad for you. obviously I can't give you cause and effect.... I can only guess and since I'm giving you precise descriptions and how this can play out you'll see if it's working or not because I'm telling you much of it before the market has a chance to show you what I'm talking about. no matter how good this is I know that 90 something percent of the people watching will never do the work.... they never do the work and I know the outcome for them will be failure when it comes to Trading. most people cannot deal with failure and risk and other matter that makes trading so difficult. most people don't realize how difficult it is to make money Trading and they don't make the effort to do what successful people do... is to work hard and test everything that you think you need to know before your risk capital. in general the smartest most successful people in markets have no interest in telling you how to trade. trading Is Not a Love Fest. my experience after many years at this is that most of the people I paid money to in the first couple of decades of my trading experience we're generally very disappointing but at least they got paid they made money because I had to pay for their wisdom.... it's obviously not their trading based on my experience. this video turned into a comparison of a bear trap ...and a bear flag. I'm not really sure if I'm naming them accurately according to Convention. ... and it is well known that the relationship to Smart money and fast money is a well-known topic. the assumption is that the smart money does something that eludes the fast money.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ScottBogatin
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength. comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 63 - 71 bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68. Invalidation is below 64.7. bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area. Invalidation is above 68.8. short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7. medium-long term: Will update after this week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
Oil Prices Drop on Weak China Demand & Gulf StormOil prices continue to drop as weak demand in China persists, despite disruptions from Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. Latest data shows consumer inflation in China rising slower than expected, with crude oil imports rebounding slightly from July but still weak on a seasonal basis. In the Gulf, oil and gas producers are shutting down platforms and evacuating workers as they brace for the storm. 📊 Technical Outlook: The market is approaching key support levels: • 38.2% retracement at $65.16 (2020-2022 move) • $63.64 (2023 low) • $61.74 (mid-2021 low) While these levels might hold during the initial test, it’s unlikely they'll prompt a reversal. With the market trading below the 200-week moving average and breaking the 55-month moving average, there's potential for prices to dip below $50 in the longer term. A negative bias remains below $84.52, and if support levels break, we could see a structural downtrend. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by The_STA
Sellers Successfully Broke to the downside on Weekly TF...NYMEX:CL1! "Our patterns make prints that show up on paper." -Trinidad Chris Family as we get ready to start this trading week. Let's make sure we play very close attention to every detail in the market on every TF from the Weekly n Below. Our #1 focus is the Mastery of our System! We are in the business of Managment. Here in this video, I went into gr8 detail as to why I am more so SHORT biased on Crude OIL. However, LONGS are still on the table if the right High Probable Set Up presents itself!! This is going to be a BIG BIG Week for the HOUSE!!! Let's stay on POINT!! Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently. Let's Keep Steppn!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!
by TreyHighPwr
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week. Quote from last week: comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76. comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 60-72 bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema. Invalidation is above 70.32 outlook last week: short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73. short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait. medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds