CRUDE - LONGMCX:CRUDEOIL1! Momentum continue above 6481 to 7400 this time. Weekly chart also bullish.
WTI1! trade ideas
Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Targets Iran's ExportsWTI crude oil, under pressure for the past couple of weeks pops higher after running sell stops below $72. The rebound being supported by news the US secretary of state will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with Treasury to implement a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero"
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Light Crude Oil Bullish Bias: Market Sentiment for Retail
As of February 4, 2025, light crude oil prices have been exhibiting an upward trend, influenced by various market dynamics.
Current Market Sentiment:
Supply Constraints: OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current plan of gradually increasing oil production starting in April, despite pressures to reduce prices.
REUTERS.COM
Demand Projections: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil consumption will rise from 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 103.9 million bpd.
IEA.ORG
Geopolitical Factors: Recent U.S. tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, have introduced market uncertainties. These actions could potentially slow U.S. economic growth and increase inflation, factors that may influence oil prices.
FT.COM
Considerations for Retail Traders:
While the current sentiment leans bullish due to supply constraints and projected demand growth, it's essential to remain cautious. Geopolitical developments and policy changes can rapidly alter market conditions. As a retail trader, it's advisable to monitor these factors closely and employ prudent risk management strategies when considering positions in light crude oil.
Note: This analysis is based on information available as of February 4, 2025. Market conditions are subject to change, and it's important to stay updated with the latest data and news.
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid VolatilityNYMEX:CL1!
With Trade War 2.0 unfolding, managing risk in futures trading is more crucial than ever. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
Crude Oil Futures:
It’s the start of a new month. We saw our last week’s idea “scenario 1” partially play out before prices pulled back higher towards our neutral LIS.
As mentioned above, it is our opinion that current situations and macro news may result in heightened volatility, so it is important to trade what you see and not what you think.
Do not get fixated on your view on the market. Be ready to shift and adapt as the markets evolve on the hard right edge.
Instead of recapping and presenting a macro update today, we will shift our focus on the charts. Looking purely at price, time, volume, and key levels to create a plan for the week.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025 : 76.00
January 2025 mid- range: 74.96
February Monthly Open: 74.14
Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025 : 71.82
Yearly Open: 70.52
2024 Mid- Range: 70.40
Scenario 1: Rejection confirmation at January 2025 Mid
Price has attempted to push above January 2025 mid and was rejected. This was a key level of interest to validate longs in our last week’s trade plan. Rejection of this level and price now below monthly open. There is room for prices to shift lower towards mcVAL Jan 2025 and test of key bull support at yearly open and 2024 mid range.
Scenario 2: mcVAL 2025 to act as intermediate support
If we see this level hold, in our opinion, Crude oil may be establishing a new range capped within mcVAH and mcVAL Jan 2025 until we see a break of either side. That said, intra day volatility may increase with headline news impacting prices.
As always it is paramount to manage your risk as losses are an inherent part of trading.
What are you focusing on amid all the headline news? We'd love to hear your thoughts!
Oil set to rise as geopolitical tensions and tariffs reshape- Key Insights: Crude oil is displaying a bullish signal after prior declines,
with increasing volatility suggesting watchfulness for investors. The key
resistance level at $73.79 needs to be breached for a sustained upward
trend, while the support at $71.51 provides critical downside protection.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets:
T1: $75.50
T2: $78.00
Stop levels:
S1: $72.00
S2: $70.00
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has shown resilience, overcoming previous
downturns and demonstrating late bullish activity. The market reacted
sharply to news, swinging prices upwards over 3%, confirming sensitivity to
external factors.
- Expert Analysis: Experts expect crude oil prices to respond positively to
geopolitical events, especially with tariffs that could limit supply to the
U.S. Traders should be mindful of correlated movements in broader commodity
markets, suggesting a favorable environment for oil if it remains above key
technical levels.
- News Impact: The market faces significant challenges due to a recently imposed
25% tariff on oil imports from Canada and Mexico, expected to constrain
supply availability in the U.S. This situation heightens the potential for
price increases amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, making it imperative
for investors to adapt strategies accordingly.
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine
TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants.
Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures
Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period.
In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan.
The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel
This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target:
o Entry Zone:
An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry.
o Stop Loss:
Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
o Profit-Taking Strategy:
First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level
This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone.
Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations
Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL:
o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800.
o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580.
Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value.
Execution and Market Conditions
To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.
Key Considerations Before Entering
Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade
Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones
Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure
Final Thoughts
This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management.
For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
OIL: The trade war has just begun!OIL: The trade war has just begun!
-Breakout and backtest.
-Demand zone and key level support.
-Fibo retracement at golden zone.
.
Buy and see!
Trade the Crude OIl Range Shorts and Longs Crude oil perspective going into Inventories data highlighting solid levels for longs and shorts
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 71 - 80
bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again.
Invalidation is below 71.
bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
CL - It's time to make a decision about the next direction!Hi guys, we are looking into Crude Oil today! Currently the Black Gold is sitting on a very important cross road, which is it's current support area. As we know on Saturday President Donald Trump will impose tariffs over to it's neighbours Canada and Mexico. As of today Canada and Mexico, are the two countries which supply the most Oil for the U.S. , we would have an expectation that this would be bullish for the prices of Oil, which is the route that I would personally go for. But as we cannot predict the future, I have presented two options here based on the technical situation, so you can choose how to apply the strategy.
Option 1: You are bullish and enter with a purchaisng trade from this level towards the previous resistance area at 79.00
Option 2: You are bearish and expect the support level to be broken and we push for the bottom support area at 67-66 and you can target that price
Option 3: You can put a pending order as a sell at the area of 71.50 , to target the 67,66 price tag, or put a pending order at 73.90 to target the upper resistance level at 79.00
Your stop loss would be optimized around the support area so you can have a balanced protection over your trade. Option 3 would be the most optimized for people who are more conservative, and option 1 would be the most optimized for people who have higher Risk Tolerance.
I am curious to hear out what is your opinion in the comments about this trade?
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
MCL 310125My trading plan is to wait for price to reach the drawn lines or boxes to look for entry signals. The drawn lines or boxes are strong support/resistance zones, these are potential reversal areas when price approaches. If price breaks out instead of reversing, this is where to wait for a retest to look for entry signals. Good luck my friend!
CL1 310125CL1 310125
My trading plan is to wait for price to reach the drawn lines or boxes to look for entry signals. The drawn lines or boxes are strong support/resistance zones, these are potential reversal areas when price approaches. If price breaks out instead of reversing, this is where to wait for a retest to look for entry signals. Good luck my friend!
Crude - 6hrs - LongThis technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Finally some higher highs again. Market could now transition into a wider trading range and 70 - 76 is my rough guess for now. Bulls need to keep the tiny bit momentum going tomorrow and break above the bear channel and trade above 74 again. If bears dip it below 72.6, we could very well print a lower low below 72 and the range might also expand to the downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 76
bull case: Bulls made the first higher high again and need follow-through badly. Above 74 the bear trend is for sure over and a trading range is most likely. Good for the bulls is, that on the daily chart we are still trading above the breakout price which was roughly 70. If they can reverse this strongly, they have a chance of retesting the highs over the next weeks. For now I think they have to be content with staying above 72 and maybe get to 74 again.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears want to keep the market below the daily 20ema and prevent bulls from making meaningful higher highs above 74. The bear channel is still valid and on the daily chart the past 3 trading days look like a weak two-legged pullback to the moving average and that is usually a very good buy/sell signal in the direction of the trend. Bears want to print a new low below 72 and then testing 70.
Invalidation is above 74.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 74 and bearish below 72.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying below 72.4 was good since Monday.
Crude OilUS Oil - Crude Oil
Bearish Channel as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " A " Corrective Waves
Demand Zone
Crude Oil H1 Prediction for 30/01/2025📉 Crude Oil Breakdown Alert! 🛢️
Price has broken below the key 72.37 - 72.61 support zone (red area). A possible retest of this zone could confirm further downside movement.
🎯 Target Level: 71.42
🔎 Watch for rejection at resistance before confirming a short entry!
⚠️ Trade Smart, Manage Risk!
#CrudeOil #OilTrading #WTI #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #RiskManagement
Crude Continued ConsolidationCrude Oil futures have had a very volatile start to the year with prices pushing above the 200-day moving average and falling back down to that level after testing the highs from May. The Crude Inventories Report released today showed a higher than expected print at 3.463M while forecasting 2.200M, which is the 5th consecutive report of worse than expected figures. Prices now are looking to re-test the 200-day moving average and traders may watch this figure to act as a catalyst either up or down for near term price action.
The Crude Oil contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance. Looking at the large swings in the chart over a few week period, traders can see how wide the market swings back and forth. Having the ability to choose your size can help traders with entry, exit, and overall execution planning.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Crude Oil Is SandwichedPrice is currently between the white centerline and the long-term support/resistance level.
Since the price is near the centerline, we're seeing a kind of pullback to it. According to the Medianline framework, this is expected after trading below it.
The downside target would be the orange CL, as that aligns with the organic target. However, between the current price and the CL target, the long-term support level is quietly sitting there—possibly waiting to trap shorts.
What should a trader do now?
a) We could stay on the sidelines, observe, and learn.
b) We could go short, reasoning that the price is trading below the white CL and has made a textbook pullback to it. My stop would be placed above the orange bar that broke through the white CL.
A long position is not an option for me, as we are still below the white CL.
By the way: Look to the left and notice how the current situation mirrors past price action:
1. Break below the CL
2. Retest the CL
3. Move downward
Push to Supply then smack down As we see US draws on reserves its safe to say cheaper pricing is ahead of us. with Trump looking to loosen restirctions on drilling and surplus of oil being in the market even if suadis put the breaks on pulling oil we will still see a drop in price.
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update
Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off.
Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations.
Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions.
Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity.
Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events:
Wednesday, January 29:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025.
Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
Thursday, January 30th:
ECB interest rate decision
Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ).
Friday, January 31st:
Core PCE Price Index (Dec).
Crude Oil Futures Update
Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle.
As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch:
Key Observations:
On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone).
We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade.
Scenario 1: Down and Back Up
Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels.
Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80
If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop.
For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading.
This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets.
Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
