NGRejecting 4 hr supply. Trying some KOLD here for a move back to that daily demand zone.Shortby Essendy0
Pessimistic picture of natural gasThis scenario is under the assumption that we keep downtrend in natural gas irresistible manner. There is also the alternative with breaking up to 8, but in downtrends we always expect breaking up and mostly always going down and down. On normal scale we broke a little trend line, on logarithmic - not.by Njusick0
NATGAS Short From Resistance! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS made its way up Towards the horizontal resistance So I think it is locally overbought And I will be expecting a pullback And a move down Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!Shortby TopTradingSignals8813
Oct 31,22-NG Working on more 700 pt profitsNG is going back up my friends - as you saw last week I profited from 2 of my 4 trades at 700pts each - NICE! This week I'm hoping for price to close out above 7. My trade at 6 I'm looking for taking my profits at 6.7 for another 700 pt profit. Then I will only have my last original Buy Order at 7. Stay safe and have a great week. HeikoLongby HEIKOTradingSystem5
The Bogeyman in Futures TradingNYMEX: Dutch Natural Gas ( NYMEX:TTF1! ), Henry Hub Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! ) and WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) Amid a deep energy crisis faced by Europe, Dutch natural gas futures hit a new record of €350 per megawatt hour in August. Governments across the European Union adopted new rules to reduce electricity usage. In just two months, with a dramatic turn of events, natural gas prices in both Europe and the U.S. dipped below zero last week. TTF Next Hour Contract, which reflects real-time European market conditions, fell to -€15.78 on Monday, October 24th. The Waha index — a main indicator of natural gas supplies in the Permian Basin in West Texas, dropped to -54¢/mmBtu on the same day. What has made the highly sought-after energy source worthless? Europe: LNG Overflow and Insufficient Storage TTF contracts are for physical delivery of natural gas through the transfer of rights at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Virtual Trading Point, operated by Gasunie Transport Services (GTS), the transmission system operator in the Netherlands. Due to sanctions on Russia, European countries have been buying natural gas globally to prepare for peak winter consumption and asked the public to conserve energy. With increase in gas supply and decrease in gas usage, their efforts paid off. The average gas storage level in the EU has reached 93.4% of capacity, and the storage level in Germany has reached 97.5%. In addition to near-full storage levels, many LNG tankers are heading to Europe. According to Marine Traffic, out of the 641 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers in operation worldwide, sixty are already in the north-west Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Iberian Peninsula. Many LNG ships sit idly outside of ports because they cannot be unloaded. Clarksons Securities estimated that the voyage cost of an LNG carrier runs between $276,700 to $313,000 per day. This amounts to $8.3 - $9.4 million a month. In order to stop the bleeding, sellers are so desperate that they would pay someone to take over the shipment. US: Overloaded Pipelines Due to Planned Repairs Waha Index Futures is based upon the mathematical result of subtracting the monthly price published by Inside FERC from the average of the daily prices published by Gas Daily. Permian gas is produced mainly in the form of associated gas, a by-product from crude oil drilling. Crude production from the prolific basin has hit record highs this year, topping 5.4 million barrels per day in October, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural gas pipelines in the Permian Basin of West Texas cannot operate normally as they are already fully loaded, and natural gas can only be stockpiled in the Permian Basin. Planned repairs on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express (GCX) pipeline appear to be the tipping point for the negative prices. Flows on GCX were cut by 38% through October 28th. The constraints forced Permian producers to sell gas at wider discounts to the US benchmark, Henry Hub. Spot prices turned negative on October 24th, meaning sellers have to pay buyers to move the gas. Bogeyman in Physical Delivery Specifications for futures contracts are very specific (hence the name). Exchanges strive to include all possible scenarios in contract design. With respect to the most important features, namely, the grade of the underlying commodity and the methods of trade settlement, no alternations are allowed unless they are specifically spelled out in the Rules Book. Both TTF and Waha reflect spot prices of natural gas physically delivered to the contract-specified locations. These designs worked well at normal times. However, under extreme conditions, sellers could not make delivery due to insufficient storage or overloaded pipelines. Negative pricing is the bogeyman in TTF and Waha. This bizarre phenomenon is a lesser evil for sellers, who have to choose between taking a known loss and potentially bigger exposure with holding unfulfilled financial obligations. How did we get here? In recent years, as developed countries are fully committed to combatting global warming, new investments are flowing into renewable energy, and away from traditional fossil fuel such as oil, gas and coal. As a result, gas pipelines and storage facilities are underfunded and lacking maintenance and upgrades. This year’s geopolitical crisis exposed the risk of getting rid of “dirty energy” too soon before clean energy picks up its pace. TTF Next Hour contract serves as a risk management tool for high-frequency gas traders. The benchmark for European natural gas is actually the TTF Calendar Month Futures. It never turned negative and is quoted at €139 on October 28th. The benchmark for US natural gas is not Waha Index, but NYMEX Henry Hub (NG). It peaked at $9.70/MMBtu in August and is trading at $5.625 on October 30th. Remember the Negative Oil Prices? On April 20, 2020, the front-month May 2020 WTI crude contract ( NYMEX:CL1! ) dropped by 306%, or $55.90, for the session, to settle at negative $37.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI first came to the market in 1983. It was the most successful futures contract in the history of NYMEX. Each contract calls for physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of crude oil at any storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma. In the next 30+ years, the exponential growth in WTI trading has outgrown the capacity in Cushing. In April 2020, all storage facilities eligible to take delivery were completely full. Sellers had to pay buyers to take the crude oil shipment off their hands. That was the first time a futures contract closed at a negative value. We could see the same bogeyman at play in TTF and Waha. How to Avoid Getting Caught in Negative Prices Unless you are a commercial trader who could make delivery, take delivery, and store shipment, it is highly risky to hold any open positions (long or short) during a contract expiration month. Futures contracts have two methods of final settlement – physical delivery and cash settlement. All financial futures are cash settled. These include equity indexes, interest rates, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrency futures. Commodities futures, including energy, metals, and agricultural commodities, are a mixed bag. They were all deliverable contracts at the beginning. Newer contracts have adopted cash settlement with the help of cash price index, such as CME Lean Hog Futures. Despite the methods of delivery, be it physical delivery or cash settlement, closing out the positions before expiration month is a prudent strategy. Doing so will also avoid getting caught in the depletion of liquidity. Commodity market liquidity is usually rolled over to the next contract month well before expiration date. Happy trick-or-treating ! *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Editors' picksLongby JimHuangChicago1111125
gas get ready for big wave 3 !!!winter is coming ... gas wave 3 is coming ... According to the analysis of Elliott waves, the gas is at the end of the correction waves of its second wave, and soon the third big gas wave will begin.Longby Tahlil_Bonyadi_TSE3
natural gas with 99-01 years superpositionNatural gas has formed structure alike his own model 99-01 years. So i added it with the slightly different time offset. Also we gain big cycle end and the minimum(which in 1.8-2.1 range) by the march-may of 2023 (started in February 16). Maybe i'll add in comments big picture with the cycles overview as i see it.by Njusick112
✅NATGAS SWING SHORT🔥 ✅NATGAS violated the rising support recently And went down just as I predicted In my previous analysis but the price Went up in a bullish correction To retest the resistance from where We are already seeing a bearish reaction So a bearish continuation is to be expected SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Shortby ProSignalsFx779
Oct 27,22-NG Winner AGAIN-700 pt profitThis week is a good week!! Last night I closed out my 5.5 Buy Order for another 700 point profit (officially 695 point profit) to close at 6.2 (officially 6.195). Next up is my Buy Order at 6 which currently is in profit territory. The storage report is today so we shall see what happens. I might get out of my position with a small profit. Not sure. Then there is still my Buy Order at 7, where I was a little early (ok a LOT early) with my bullish prediction. Should be an interesting finish to this year. Stay safe all and trade smart. HeikoLongby HEIKOTradingSystem2
Oct 26,22-NG Winner-700 points profit!NICE - So I just closed out my Buy Order from 5 and closed it out at 5.7 for a nice 700 point profit!! Now I'll wait till price action rises into the 6's to close out my 5.5 Buy Order. Congrats to all who followed my hunches :-) Enjoy your profits! Stay Safe all. Heiko Longby HEIKOTradingSystem1
NATGAS Risky Short! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS is retesting a broken horizontal level So I am bearish biased And I think that we are likely To see a move down Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!Shortby TopTradingSignals556
Oct 26,22-NG-Nice Profits from yesterdays rallyMy Buy Order at 5 is in decent profits today after yesterdays bullish run. Price action sits around my next Buy Order at 5.5 today. I will continue to monitor price action as there will be ups and down from now till Feb. I will close my Buy Orders at 700-800 point profits along the way to lock in my profits. Stay safe. HeikoLongby HEIKOTradingSystem1
BUY NGRecently, the price of natural gas has been under pressure due to measures to reduce consumption and prices in Europe ahead of winter. Officials expect another supply crunch due to restricted access to Russian pipelines and a possible jump in demand for heating goods. Today, the price of natural gas NATGAS / USD is stable between the level of $5.81 and the level of $6.03 per million British thermal units. On another note. An inventory report from the US Department of Energy can determine if the floor can hold or not. Analysts expect a smaller increase in inventories of 103 billion cubic feet compared to the previous increase of 125 billion cubic feet, indicating an increase in purchases. LNG exports to other countries and storage activity leading to colder months may be responsible for the slowdown in the increase in storage. However, a larger-than-expected increase could mean more downside for natural gas as this may indicate that demand remains weak. On the gas crisis front following the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that a proposal to cap gas prices at the EU level could backfire as the region seeks to offset significant supply cuts from Russia. “Price capping always involves the risk that producers will sell their gas elsewhere – and we Europeans will end up having less gas instead of more,” Schulz said Thursday in a speech to the German parliament in Berlin. The German chancellor was speaking ahead of a two-day summit of European Union leaders in Brussels. The bloc's member states will discuss ways to keep energy prices under control and ensure security of supplies, as well as the recent situation in Russia's war in Ukraine. Rather than setting a price cap, Schulze supported the idea of cooperating closely with buyers such as Japan and South Korea to avoid competition for limited supplies, while also attracting like-minded producers. "I am convinced that countries like the United States, Canada or Norway, who stand with us in solidarity with Ukraine, have an interest that energy in Europe will not become too expensive," he said. According to gas technical analysis: Natural gas price NATGAS/USD has retreated to the main area of interest shown on the longer-term time frames, and a break below could pave the way for a move to the next major support area at $3,635. Technical indicators favor a bounce, as the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to reflect bullish pressure. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to hint at a possible bearish crossover soon. The commodity is also trading below its two moving averages as an early indication of selling momentum. If that materializes, the price of natural gas could drop below $5,585 and make its way to the next main floor. The stochastic has been indicating oversold conditions for some time, which means that sellers can use a breakout period and let the buyers take control. Similarly, the RSI is in the oversold territory to indicate exhaustion among the bears. A turn higher means that bullish momentum could pick up and take the commodity back to the next upside barrier around $8,000.Longby ahmed-sajidUpdated 2
BUY NGRecently, the price of natural gas has been under pressure due to measures to reduce consumption and prices in Europe ahead of winter. Officials expect another supply crunch due to restricted access to Russian pipelines and a possible jump in demand for heating goods. Today, the price of natural gas NATGAS / USD is stable between the level of $5.81 and the level of $6.03 per million British thermal units. On another note. An inventory report from the US Department of Energy can determine if the floor can hold or not. Analysts expect a smaller increase in inventories of 103 billion cubic feet compared to the previous increase of 125 billion cubic feet, indicating an increase in purchases. LNG exports to other countries and storage activity leading to colder months may be responsible for the slowdown in the increase in storage. However, a larger-than-expected increase could mean more downside for natural gas as this may indicate that demand remains weak. On the gas crisis front following the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that a proposal to cap gas prices at the EU level could backfire as the region seeks to offset significant supply cuts from Russia. “Price capping always involves the risk that producers will sell their gas elsewhere – and we Europeans will end up having less gas instead of more,” Schulz said Thursday in a speech to the German parliament in Berlin. The German chancellor was speaking ahead of a two-day summit of European Union leaders in Brussels. The bloc's member states will discuss ways to keep energy prices under control and ensure security of supplies, as well as the recent situation in Russia's war in Ukraine. Rather than setting a price cap, Schulze supported the idea of cooperating closely with buyers such as Japan and South Korea to avoid competition for limited supplies, while also attracting like-minded producers. "I am convinced that countries like the United States, Canada or Norway, who stand with us in solidarity with Ukraine, have an interest that energy in Europe will not become too expensive," he said. According to gas technical analysis: Natural gas price NATGAS/USD has retreated to the main area of interest shown on the longer-term time frames, and a break below could pave the way for a move to the next major support area at $3,635. Technical indicators favor a bounce, as the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to reflect bullish pressure. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to hint at a possible bearish crossover soon. The commodity is also trading below its two moving averages as an early indication of selling momentum. If that materializes, the price of natural gas could drop below $5,585 and make its way to the next main floor. The stochastic has been indicating oversold conditions for some time, which means that sellers can use a breakout period and let the buyers take control. Similarly, the RSI is in the oversold territory to indicate exhaustion among the bears. A turn higher means that bullish momentum could pick up and take the commodity back to the next upside barrier around $8,000.Longby ahmed-sajidUpdated 0
Oct 25,22-NG-FINALLY price is going up :-)In looking at the chart, you can see how price dropped quite a bit outside the Linear Regression Indicator but price is on it's way back up. Yesterday was the first day in a long time of positive gains, hopefully going to finish the week off in green territory. As previously discussed, I put another Buy Order in at 5, which is now in profit so that's good. Just waiting for price to continue skyrocketing. FYI - price will probably NOT skyrocket up to 10 or anything, but will very slowly make it's way up there over the winter. So this could be a 4 month grind, so get your Big Boy Pants on and strap in for a crazy ride - between the War, Recession, Sky high interest rates and Bankruptcies (more to come over the next 6-12 months) it's going to be a crazy 2023!! Stay safe! HeikoLongby HEIKOTradingSystem224
Daily NG analysisDaily NG analysis Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments. He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact meShortby Hamed20s0