Trade the Crude OIl Range Shorts and Longs Crude oil perspective going into Inventories data highlighting solid levels for longs and shorts
QMH2027 trade ideas
CL Bearish Outlook Look like after price took out BSL at the PDH from 80.16 it has moved lower and has been targeting PDLs. There is a nice discount D BISI that I believe price will trade into and if price is truly Bearish then it will trade right through the D BISI CE level and find minimal support and then the next area of focus could be the double bottom at 72.70
Lets continue to watch price and see how it delivers.
Oil Cypher, decent structure. Full plan Pretty standard set up for me, I typically trade this in a much lower time frame. Procedure rarely changes, find structure, use all of the patterns and build area of interest.
Using a combination of a Cypher and Lighting/1.2 for entry also a sub cypher for target.
Add levels posted in chart.
use boxes for stop management. 1st yellow box move stop to BE, 2nd tp1 and 3rd tp 2. I trade Oil a bit differently if anyone is wondering as far as Tp's, Feel free to use standard off the top same process. I will update this if and when time allows.
Best of luck guys 2025 is going to big!!
1st entry was 3o minute Pin bar, bought open of next candle. Late and 74$ was .414 and even handle, all things I have interest in.
Bearish Analysis: Crude Oil (CL Futures)1️⃣ Rejected at Supply Zone:
The price was strongly rejected from the $80 supply zone, where sellers clearly took control. This zone has been a key resistance level, and the recent bearish momentum confirms strong selling pressure.
2️⃣ Bearish Momentum in Play:
The sharp decline from the supply zone has broken short-term supports, signaling sustained bearish movement. The next major target is the $66–$67 demand zone, where buyers may step in.
3️⃣ Technical Indicators Supporting Bears:
RSI: At 54.88, the RSI suggests there’s room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: A bearish crossover between the %K and %D lines confirms increasing selling pressure, with momentum favoring a continuation of the trend.
4️⃣ Fundamentals Adding Pressure:
Trump’s Energy Policy: Potential policy changes to increase domestic oil supply could create a bearish outlook for crude oil.
Stronger Dollar: The strengthening USD makes oil more expensive for global buyers, further dampening demand and supporting the bearish case.
🎯 Strategy:
TP1: $75 (Near-term target, close to the current price).
TP2: $74.30 (Minor support, a potential bounce or pause area).
TP3: $72 (A strong psychological and technical level).
TP4: $67 (Major demand zone).
🔔 Note:
Consider using a positive stop loss to secure gains and reduce risk. Always practice proper risk management to protect your capital and maintain consistent results.
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
CRUDEOIL READY FOR ALL TIME HIGH...MCX:CRUDEOIL1! trade at 6770 level. Crude oil trade in a triangle range since last 3 years. This week gives a strong breakout above 6400 level. Now you can watch for all time High level.
Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures
NYMEX:CL1!
Big Picture:
Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025
Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above.
Macroeconomic Outlook
From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals.
In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
CVAH: 79.50
Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85
Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60
Neutral Level: 78.77
CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00
Support (Yearly Open): 71.85
Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion
In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup.
Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH
A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action.
Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH
In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade.
We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
Crude Oil: Testing Resistance Amid Bearish MomentumCrude Oil Update (1-Hour Timeframe)
Chart Overview: Crude Oil is trading within a downward channel, respecting the resistance trendline, which aligns with the 50 EMA, signaling sustained bearish momentum.
The price attempted a breakout but faced rejection at the resistance, confirming the downtrend. The support zone near 6,420 has held well but remains under pressure.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6550 - 6570
Support: 6420 - 6400
Bearish Target: 6350 - 6300 (if support breaks)
Strategy:
Monitor for a breakout or rejection at the trendline for directional confirmation. A move below 6,420 signals further downside, while a breakout above 6,550 may reverse the trend.
Risk Management: Maintain a stop-loss below the triangle's lower boundary for long positions and above the upper boundary for short positions.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risks effectively.
CL Bullish and Bearish Plays for the WeekBULLISH PLAY (IMMEDIATE POST-CPI TRADE ONLY)
*VALID ONLY TODAY FOLLOWING CPI NEWS RELEASE*
Entry Conditions:
- Wait for sell-side liquidity raid near 77.20 during CPI volatility
- Look for deep retracement as entry opportunity
- Confirm failed breakdown with reversal into trading range
Target: July 2024 high (79.67 area)
*This bullish setup expires at end of today's session - do not take this trade after today's CPI volatility settles*
Note: The bullish scenario is specifically designed to capitalize on potential CPI news volatility today only, while the bearish scenario is structured as an end-of-week trade setup.
BEARISH PLAY (END OF WEEK TRADE)
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT:
- 77.20 sell-side liquidity MUST remain INTACT for trade to be valid
Entry Conditions:
- Wait for upward expansion following CPI news
- Time entry for end-of-week (Thursday/Friday Ideal) selling pressure
- Look for market structure break as entry trigger
- VOID if 77.20 gets raided
Target: 77.00 area
Crude Oil: Short Strategy Recommended for Next Week
-Key Insights: Crude oil has shown a bullish outlook in the short term, but
underlying bearish indicators suggest a cautious trading approach. Market
dynamics may shift due to geopolitical events, potential oil surpluses, and
rising interest rates. Traders should watch for critical economic data that may
influence oil volatility.
-Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$74.00, T2=$71.00 with stop
levels of S1=$80.00, S2=$82.00. This aligns with the current price of $77.67,
positioning for potential downward movement while maintaining necessary risk
management.
-Recent Performance: Crude oil recently breached key resistance levels,
reflecting strong bullish momentum, yet is now at a crucial juncture where
downward pressure may emerge. Price fluctuations indicate the need for
monitoring as oscillations could lead to notable shifts in market sentiment.
-Expert Analysis: Analysts express mixed sentiments; short-term optimism hinges
on current bullish movements alongside warnings of future market corrections.
Monitoring fluctuations in interest rates and their impact on crude prices
remains vital, emphasizing the careful approach due to potential volatility.
-News Impact: Geopolitical tensions, including alignments of Saudi Arabia with
BRICS nations and ongoing sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are
pivotal. Anticipated economic indicators, particularly from the Bank of Japan,
could indirectly influence the oil market by impacting the US dollar's strength,
which is crucial for crude oil pricing globally.
Oil pullback(NOL) nano Crude Oil Futures printed a diamond top pattern on the 4hr chart. A diamond top pattern is a technical analysis pattern that often occurs at or near market tops and can signal a reversal of an uptrend. This is a possible short entry / take profit from long position. The timing on an oil pullback could last approximately 2-3 days. This pattern is invalidated with a candlestick close above 79.
Trade idea:
short = 78.60
stop = 79
profit = 73
Crude Oil -Can use the fundamentals to push the strong resitanceHi guys we are going to take a look into CL. The Black Gold has had some interesting fundamental events recently , with the Biden administration imposing a few important and key tarrifs over the Russian exports of OIL. Additionally on a technical preview as we visited this asset a few times, it has broken a few very key support levels, and the price started actually moving in a good direction.Previously we saw the price move sideweays for almost 2 months.
Entry: 77.50
Target 1: 78.50
Target 2: 79.50
Target 3. 80.50
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
OIL & The Buffet TradeMARKETSCOM:OIL & The Buffet Trade
From a Technical View I see the Inverse Head & Shoulder playing out.
Current economic catalyst may be the reason why this very common technical pattern plays out, I'll be trading it on the way up.
The GOAT Buffet is all in NYSE:OXY which says a lot.
CL continued Bullish BiasI will keep my bias Bullish with the draw being the PDH at 80.16 Now price could retrace into the D Discount Wick into the CE level and then trade higher but my overall Focus is the double top BSL.
Crude Oil Prices Showing StrengthCrude Oil Futures have seen continued strength to the upside after seeing a choppy trading environment for several weeks. Crude Oil has several indicators that can sway the prices to the upside or downside very quickly based on global supply and economic uncertainty, and traders and seeing all of this in action starting off the new year. Tensions in the Middle East may give traders concerns about the future supply of Crude, and with the uncertainty of geopolitics moving forward in the United States after the election there are many factors to consider when trading Crude Oil. Today, prices are higher once again on the March contract and are testing highs from July of 2024.
Over the years as the popularity of Crude Oil Futures has grown, there were different sized contracts that enable traders to choose their own sizing options with the mini and micro contracts. These contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG & target MKL $80.00 Per Barrel?NYMEX:CL1!
" A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." -Jackie Robinson
As we head into the 2nd trading week of the New Year, I hope everyone has a HIGH SET Goal that they want to achieve. Let's be strategic in our goals and make sure we put forth rightful action that will get us the results we desire. In this sport we play there is no Reward without RISK... So, let's get down to business on what exactly were looking for this week to STRIKE GOLD for the HOUSE to benefit...
'Crude OIL':
Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA) 10pt STOP / 50-60pt Target
Key info: On average Crude Oil runs for 120pts LONG or SHORT during NY session 5am-2pm PST.
Our Playbook: We cut 120 in Half = 60pts as our new GOAL to catch for the DAY (Intra Day)
Pillar 1) HTF EOF "Market Direction" In which direction are we headed? Who has the stronger hand? Currently Buyers have the stronger hand on both the Daily & 4Hr TF's. Since the New Year kicked off Oil has been rallying to the upside breaking Supply and Demand HOLDING with strong conviction. So now we know that HTF/LTF Pro Trend is LONG and HTF/LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.
With Oil Currently trading inside of the HTF Daily Supply Zone I am going to wait for more data to develop in the PA before I start to build the Confluence Profile 500K (Expectational Order-Flow + PA). Once we get our Confluence Profile to flow in symmetry together; HTF Mitigation w LTF Entry Confirmation / Order Flow Footprint + PA we then will enter our positions INTRA DAY....
Keynote: LTF Pro Trend is LONG & LTF Counter Trend is SHORT.... Either way is Profitable!! Done correctly at the right time & price. I will keep update as more date in the PA develops throughout the week.
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
Crude Oil Q1 2024, 3d ChartPublishing this chart because of how much it reminds me of the 2019 price action and want to track it.
crude boiling up.The next challenge building up. crude raising its head could pose a serious problem as salt in the wounded USD INR. tough days ahead.
Crude Oil breaks and follows projectionAfter the long consolidation time, CL finally broke the Trend-Barrier (TB) and is now on the move to the upside.
It's not stupid to aim for the 1/4 line as PTG1.
But for sure I would only close a portion of the position, since the upside potential is far higher.
And if you don't know how much to bank, just go with 50% of your investment. If it's going higher, you're still participating from the move.
If it goes sour, you have already banked 50%.
Just create a plan and follow it.
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction
Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy.
In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively.
2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures
o Contract Specifications:
Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract.
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity.
o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL):
Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract.
Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract.
Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies.
o Margins:
Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility).
Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract.
The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies.
3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements:
U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices.
Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices.
Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices.
4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include:
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices.
U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days.
Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand.
5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators
Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are:
Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward.
U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand.
Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment.
6. Applications for Different Trading Styles
Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles:
Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday.
Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures.
Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
7. Risk Management Strategies
Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include:
Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings.
Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades.
8. Conclusion
Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market.
By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading.
Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Trump’s National Energy Emergency Aims to Press Oil Prices LowerWhat goes up eventually comes down. This is even more true for oil prices amid a range of forces at play. The recent rally has been popped by significant headwinds facing crude oil prices.
WTI Crude Oil (“WTI) has trended down sharply amid sluggish demand and a surplus in supply. Global oil consumption has remained tepid, with China's economic recovery slower than expected and U.S. fuel demand showing seasonal weakness.
WTI prices rallied sharply higher from mid-Dec until mid-Jan, driven by optimism over Chinese demand rebound expectations in 2025. Adding to that was the Biden administration’s tightening of sanctions on Russian crude, targeting producers and over 180 vessels transporting 1.7 million bpd (~25% of Russia’s exports).
WTI optimism quickly faded as Trump took office on 20/Jan. He signed an executive order to boost oil & gas production, removing barriers and reversing Biden’s climate policies. Since then, WTI prices have pulled back 7.74%.
Declaring a national energy emergency , Trump introduced measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals, aiming to lower costs & increase energy independence.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump called on OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, to increase production and lower crude prices, triggering a fifth straight session of losses for WTI.
Source: EIA
The only tailwind to WTI prices amid all this oil gloom was the decline in crude inventories for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA reported a 1-million-barrel drop for the week ending 17/Jan, though it fell short of analysts’ 2.1-million-barrel forecast .
EIA FORECASTS WTI PRICES TO TREND DOWN
EIA in its latest STEO estimates WTI prices to fall throughout 2025 and 2026 on expectations of rising supply.
Source: EIA STEO
WTI prices are expected to average USD 70.31/barrel in 2025 & USD 62.46/barrel in 2026. The EIA expects OPEC+ to maintain production cuts to counter rising non-OPEC supply.
Lower prices are likely to curb U.S. drilling activity and investment, resulting in only a modest production increase in 2026. After hitting a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024, U.S. crude output is projected to rise to 13.5 million bpd in 2025 and grow by less than 1% in 2026, averaging 13.6 million bpd as price pressures slow activity.
This hints that Trump may have limited influence over U.S. production, as price remains the key driver. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey , U.S. oil firms need an average oil price of USD 64/barrel to drill profitably.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL POTENTIAL BEARISH TREND ON THE HORIZON
WTI crude oil futures have fallen sharply since 16/Jan. Along with it, the gap between the 9-day and 21-day moving averages has narrowed. The 9-day MA, which formed a golden cross on 13/Dec, now hints at a potential trend shift.
On 21/Jan, prices closed below the 9-day MA and are now near the 21-day MA, signalling a waning bullish trend. WTI prices started the week above the monthly R2 resistance level but has since fallen below it.
RSI began declining on 15/Jan after entering the overbought zone and dropped below its RSI-based moving average on 16/Jan. The MACD signalled weakening bullish momentum since 16/Jan, confirming a trend reversal and the start of a bearish trend on 23/Jan.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
For the week ending 14/Jan, managed money’s net long positioning in WTI crude oil (futures & options) fell 6.4% WoW, ending four weeks of sequential gains. Short positions surged 19.8% to 47,252 lots, while long positions declined 2.7% to 277,944 lots.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Scaling back of net long positions by managed money may be a signal of bearish expectations ahead.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Trump’s push for lower crude prices will intensify downward pressure on WTI in an oversupplied market. Threats of tariffs further risk dampening global trade, delaying an oil demand recovery.
Do not write off the likelihood of a shock serving as a tailwind to oil prices. For now, pressure remains on oil prices to cool off in the near term, with ample forces pushing them lower.
Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view on WTI prices using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them more accessible while creating alternatives for granular hedging.
This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2025) expiring on 19/Feb (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup:
• Entry: 75.60/barrel
• Target: 71.50/barrel
• Stop: 77.00/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): +410 ((75.60 – 71.50) x 100)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -140 ((75.60 – 77.00) x 100)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.9x
CME Group has made a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
TradingView will be launching The Leap starting on 3rd February 2025. New and upcoming traders could hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group. Click here to learn more.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Positional View - MCX Crude OilAs shown in the attached chart, "Astra India Indicator" Positional Predictions worked perfectly once again. Now MCX Crude Oil having Resistance of 6435 (1 hour chart) and need to close a candle in green above that level (hourly basis) to shift in BULLISH mode otherwise it can touch 6200 Level very soon.
Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We have a first decent pull-back and so far every dip buyer lost money. We are at the daily 20ema and missed the breakout price by 4 ticks. I think the odds favor the bulls to get another leg up and try 80 again. 5 consecutive daily bear bars is a bear micro channel and buying into this is a bad buy. Bulls will probably wait for more confirmation first. So best thing to do here is nothing. If the bulls get another leg up, I highly doubt they will get anything beyond 80, if they make it that far. The market would have never pulled-back that much in a strong trend.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have their do or die moment around 74. Below 73 this rally is over and we will aim for 67 much more than 80. A strong bullish daily bar could shift the momentum again and another try at reaching 80. Above the 4h 20ema and probably 76, this becomes a decent long again. I would wait for that confirmation before joining the bulls.
Invalidation is below 73.
bear case: Bears printed an endless pull-back down from 79.45 and the 4h 20ema was big resistance for the entire week. If bears just keep at it, we can continue all the way down from where we started end of December but if bulls gain momentum and go above 76, I doubt many bears want to hold short in fear of going to 80.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: Neutral. I need confirmation for either side before I want to take a trade. The 4h and 1h is on the bear side and the daily looks still bullish enough for me to now want to get chopped around between 73 - 76.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
