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QM1! trade ideas

CL / Crude Oil ShortContext: • Monthly: First signs of bearish orderflow. Bearish FVG in the making • Weekly: Bearish FVGs getting respeced • Daily: Rejection and break below prev. day low. Caution because of two bullish FVGs Idea: • 1h-4h Mitigation Block with 1h close below prev day low. • Respecting 1h FVgs • Inside current 1h candle on 15min closed last 15min bullish FVG • Potentially building a balanced price range on 15min → Long around prev. day low about 77.88 Target: • 1st would be currend day low • 2nd: Upper limit of daily FVG at 77.22 Entry / Stop: • Reversal Setup with stop above the entry signal • Or at 77.88 with stop about 78.05 Signal invalidated: • breaking lower withoug looking back • Prive going above 78.05 I want the current 15min-Candle to close inside the range of the previous 15min candle. Be careful about News in about 30minutes! Please feel free to comment
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by MichaelBw
Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines. The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into. Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Crude Futures Push Above The 200 DMATechnical Momentum Strengthens Crude Oil futures are rebounding in 2024 after trading above the 200-day moving average at $77.54. The technical perspective shows momentum studies rising from oversold territories, while the 9-day moving average trades below the 18-day. DMI- is slightly above DMI +, indicating that the market is still in a correction phase, while the Average True Range declines to $1.77 daily, showing an uptick in volatility. API Inventories Decline API Inventory has decreased recently, indicating a tighter supply picture. Recent API inventory data shows a decline of 2.4 million barrels. The current EIA inventories are 455 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 474 million barrels for this period. Cushing stocks in the Midwest show 35 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 42 million barrels. Middle East Tensions Rise The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, which fuels investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have increased recently, indicating the possibility of a widening Middle Eastern conflict in the future. Traders will remain focused on inflation data, inventory productions, and the direction of economic data. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG ABOVE DAILY SWING EQ...?NYMEX:CL1! "To succeed...You need to find something to hold on to, something to motivate you, something to inspire you." -Tony Dorsett Family, Summer is officially here and I hope everyone is well and in gr8 spirits. Here I am going to give you a detailed narrative as to why I believe we can capitalize LONG on OIL this week juss above Daily Swing EQ Level and Target 70.5% Fib Level Which is the EQ Level of the overall 4Hr Supply Zone.... Risky however still HIGH Probable...Vibe w/me 1) The 1st confirmation I want to see is price break the last 4Hr Swing High ($76.25) and head towards the EQ Fib level ($76.55)/ 4Hr Supply Zone... 2) Now what happens next is what will determine if we go LONG or not.... The only thing that makes me slightly hesitant in taking this LONG is the fact we have an ascending iR/LQ Trendline currently that buyers have created and I know for a fact Sellers need to sweep this liquidity the question is when will they do it? 3) Once we break above the Fib EQ level ($76.55) I need to see a candle closure above price on the 30m TF & Below... However Price could very much so close above inside the 4Hr Supply then sellers step in and drop price to sweep the iR/LQ then buyers push price rii back up above EQ Level... SO its case by case scenario lets just await and see what happens... Ill keep update as PA prints.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE LONG ABOVE DAILY SWING EQ...?NYMEX:CL1! 1) The 1st confirmation I want to see is price break the last 4Hr Swing High ($76.25) and head towards the EQ Fib level ($76.55)/ 4Hr Supply Zone... 2) Now what happens next is what will determine if we go LONG or not.... The only thing that makes me slightly hesitant in taking this LONG is the fact we have an ascending iR/LQ Trendline currently that buyers have created and I know for a fact Sellers need to sweep this liquidity the question is when will they do it? 3) Once we break above the Fib EQ level ($76.55) I need to see a candle closure above price on the 30m TF & Below... However Price could very much so close above inside the 4Hr Supply then sellers step in and drop price to sweep the iR/LQ then buyers push price rii back up above EQ Level... SO its case by case scenario lets just await and see what happens... Ill keep update as PA prints.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TreyHighPwr
Impending rise for oil prices?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help. Impending rise for oil prices? WTI crude oil futures held steady around $78 a barrel on Tuesday, after rising 3 percent in the previous session on expectations of increased demand for fuel in the summer. The U.S. government may also fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a faster pace as it aims to buy back oil priced around $79 per barrel. However, I remain cautious as I await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and U.S. inflation data this week. Positive U.S. employment data released on Friday raised concerns that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, which could hurt the economic outlook and energy demand. Markets will be interested in data on U.S. crude oil inventories from the EIA today. OPEC+'s announcement to ease production limits by the end of the year has created much discussion about recent changes in oil prices. But personally, I am not worried because if prices continue to fall, the oil cartel may have to delay or cancel the plan to phase down production as early as August. It would not be surprising if OPEC+ decides to postpone production cuts and announce this decision as early as early August if oil prices remain around $70. Earlier this week, OPEC+ announced that production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day will remain in place until 2025. In addition, voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mbpd will be maintained for another three months until September and then gradually reduced. Lower oil prices are a blow to major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The former needs an oil price above $90 a barrel to balance its budget, while the latter needs an even higher price to support the ongoing military intervention in Ukraine. Although there may be a decrease in oil prices, this is likely to remain subdued during the summer due to seasonal demand that will keep crude stocks in check. In the summer season, we expect sustained demand for oil and a reduction in global inventories from July to September. Therefore, we maintain a positive view on oil prices in the summer months. If you are trying to predict oil prices, there is a highly effective method you can use. Analyze oil producers to determine if their stocks are solid and cheap. With Tradingview you will have an essential tool to properly analyze the fundamental performance of each stock, avoiding costly mistakes. By using Trading View to analyze Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), we can see that the stock is strong and attractively priced, which makes me optimistic about oil prices in the future. My prediction is that oil prices will reach $82 in the next quarter. We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on Tradingview: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Repairing the Damage. What's Next for Oil?The chart above is continuous front-month Crude Oil futures. We are referencing the July contract below. Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.74, up 2.21 WTI Crude Oil futures notched a fantastic start to the week, gaining 2.93%. It is no coincidence the gain comes on the heels of a strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. We have spoken about this often, strong economic data may encourage a risk-off tone by pushing out Fed rate cut projections, but ultimately has a positive impact on Crude Oil in the aftermath. Some of yesterday’s rise could also be credited to consolidation tailwinds ahead of this morning’s OPEC Monthly report that left projections little changed, and prices have initially reacted by coming off session highs. We look to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT. Technically, yesterday’s move to reclaim major three-star resistance at 76.15-76.63, the May lows, has neutralized the early June fallout. As today’s session unfolds into tomorrow’s weekly EIA data, it will be critical for price action to hold out above major three-star support at 76.15-76.25 in order to keep the bulls, in our opinion, with their reestablished edge. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 77.51-77.80***, 78.29-78.16**, 79.32-80.09*** Pivot: 77.35 Support: 76.99*, 76.63**, 76.15-76.25***, 75.53-75.84** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went mostly flat today. Dax sears tried and were rejected again and sp500 and nasdaq made higher lows and lower highs. Markets are forming triangles which means we are in breakout mode again. No surprise moving into CPI and FOMC this week. I expect more sideways movement until then. Commodities all green, while Gold is flat, Oil continued the pull-back big time to get back to 78. Bulls strength surprised me tbh. The pull-back is already too strong for the bear trend to continue much further. Oil trading range is probably 72 - 80 for the next weeks. wti crude oil comment: Don’t long at the top of a expanding triangle and after a huge buy climax. In my weekly outlook I wrote that we will hit the daily ema at around 77 again but I obviously did not expect it to be done so fast. Oil was still in a trading range until the breakout above 76.23 but bulls kept at it and the 15m ema held into US close. Since we are at the top of the expanding triangle, I am not interested in buying up here. A pull-back is reasonable here but as of right now, bulls are in full control until bears break below the 15m ema and one should not short into such a strong trend. 78 should be bigger resistance. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 72 - 80 bull case: With today the bear trend concludes imo, since the move was too strong to be part of the bear trend. The 72.48 low could be retested over the next days to weeks but the downside is probably limited to around that area. Bulls want the strong momentum to continue and get most bears stops above 80. It would be insanely strong, if they could break above the bear channel in one giant move over two days. It’s very low probability that this will happen. If it does, we are probably facing an macro event over the next days. Invalid below 70 bear case: Bears gave up above 76.3 and market moved fast to 78. If bears can not keep it below 78, we will probably melt more up to 80. My line in the sand for bears was around 77-77.5 but bulls melted through. Not many arguments for the bears here until they get below the 15m ema and stop the market from making higher highs. short term: Bullish af. If this continues, we see 80 soon. If we see 79 in Globex, the chances of an event are big imo. Something is up. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: I had no interest in buying above 75.5 and under 76.3 but missed the big breakout. Bad trading on my part. Had to get long since bar 9 or latest bar 10.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. comment: Fair to say that bears surprised me big time on Monday with the huge follow through selling through previous bigger support. 72 stopped the fall and created an expected bounce. I do think this was W5 and my bearish targets are all met for now. Market should move sideways to up from here. On Friday we got a perfect retest of the breakout price of 76 and that was resistance for now. Worst case scenario for bulls would be to stay below 76. The bull trend line will get retested and should hold for now. current market cycle: Bear trend which could transition into a trading range here key levels: 72-78 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Huge bear surprise imo on Monday and bears want to keep it max bearish and they will do that by keeping the market below the breakout price around 76 and below the daily ema. They want a retest of 72.5 again and poke the bull trend line enough for bulls to give up there. If they actually get an acceleration of this bear trend, which is the low probability thing, they could retest 70 next and below 70 comes 67 as support. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.” → Last Sunday we traded 76.99 and now we are at 75.53. High of the week was 77.52 so the uber bearish price action, was surprising to me. I did not advise you to be bullish, unless there confirmation for the bulls and obviously that did not happen. So my bearish target of 75, if we go below 76, was alright but way too short of 72.48. Not a good outlook. short term: Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. current swing trade: None chart update: Added my pretty bear channel, adjusted 5-wave series and added a two-legged pullback, which we are probably in as of now. The red ABC is how I imagine it to play out price-wise, not time wise. We should see a retest of the lows as well as the daily ema. I don’t know which comes before what or when. Also adjusted the big bear trend line from 2022.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders! From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being. The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024. Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over. On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play. However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up. Wallahu a'lam. #cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macd
NYMEX:CL1!
by rahman_daros