CL1 LongsThis is exactly my setup and how price action shows it hands that my model is playing out. H4 BISI with 15m FVG supporting the orderflow and 5m SIBI being invalidated to take out that smooth highs.
QM1! trade ideas
CL1: Buy ideaOn CL1 as you can see on the chart, we have the breakout of the Vwap indicator and the resistance line by buyers, hence a high probability of an uptrend.
Bearish Outlook for Crude Oil: Short Position Recommended Next W
- Key Insights: The crude oil market is exhibiting bearish momentum with lower
highs and lower lows. Key geopolitical factors will remain pivotal in
determining price trends. Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels
closely, as any breaches could alter the current outlook.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are T1 at $70.50 and T2 at $68.50. Stop
levels are S1 at $73.00 and S2 at $75.00.
- Recent Performance: Crude oil has been trapped in a bearish channel, with
significant resistance at $73.50. The trend of lower price action is
influenced by a combination of supply/demand dynamics and market sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Experts indicate sustained pressure on crude oil prices
unless resistance at $73.50 is overcome. The potential for a shift in focus
towards commodities could heighten market volatility, yet bearish sentiment
remains due to current pressures.
- News Impact: Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East,
coupled with fluctuating sanctions on Russia, are impacting oil price
stability. Developments from Saudi Aramco regarding pricing strategies also
add to the uncertainty facing the crude oil market.
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point.
Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions.
Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal
Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong.
Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area.
Action Plan:
Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal.
Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal.
Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively.
Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout
Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak.
Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area.
Action Plan:
Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout.
Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout.
Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals.
Summary
The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear channel
This week's current Playbook on Crude Oil...NYMEX:CL1!
"It's not the strongest, but the most adaptable that survive." -Charles Darwin.
Wassup Family. I hope everyone has been well. This yr so far has been rough in the markets; however, we will adapt and win through. In this brief video I gave my current outlook on Crude Oil and what we could see happening this week. Remember nothing is set in STONE we play the long-term game of probability. Ill keep update as PA develops on what HP SU's we'll be looking to Catch! Let's be skilled, let's be disciplined, Let's prepare & follow our system 100%. Let's Focus on the performance of our Management. Let's go 2 work!
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well an Abundance of low hanging fruit awaits us." -500KTrey
+Shalom
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Weekly Market Forecast: CRUDE OIL Can Go Lower!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
OIL is still trending to the downside, and sells are still valid.
Until we see a bullish market break of market structure, sells all day.
CPI Data news on Wednesday, so be careful trading into news day.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short on OilMultiple touches on an area of resistance. Overall down trend. Short from pullback. Engulfing bearish candle on 5 min.
Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Pattern, Triangle Formation, and Key Back in January, despite strong rise, crude oil has seen limited upside and fully reversed the path. This is partly due to the Trump administration’s goal of bringing crude oil prices lower, with plans to refill the US strategic reserves. In fact data from the Energy Information Administration, showing that production has been gradually increasing since summer of 2023, around the time energy prices hit a swing high near $95. Since then, crude oil has consistently formed lower swing highs.
So, if the Trump administration will really boost the oil production, it will likely put more downward pressure on energy prices and help ease inflation; the CPI y/y data, which is highly correlated with crude oil prices, could decline as well as shown on the weekly chart (but this will change if / when economy “booms”).
From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking an ongoing A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern, but wave E could still push prices a bit higher, for a rally in the next few weeks, because the pattern appears incomplete. But, once this triangle concludes, I expect a break to the downside. This would likely coincide with lower inflation expectations as mentioned; thus lower US yields, and a weaker US dollar.
Overall, my assumption is that crude oil will eventually break below $64 per barrel in 2025!
GH
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1!
This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions.
Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach.
Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones.
To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators:
On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels:
Green zones indicate bull support areas.
Red zones represent bearish support areas.
Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points.
The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point:
A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas.
Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it.
Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are:
VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile.
VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution.
Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution.
Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants.
We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile.
Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process:
What has the market done?
What is it trying to do?
How good of a job is it doing?
What is more likely to happen from here?
These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week.
This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market.
To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out:
Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap :
The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred.
Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts).
Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range.
Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher.
This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red.
Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways :
We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation.
Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected.
Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process.
This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process.
As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge.
If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
CRUDE | Descending Triangle Pattern – Bearish Breakout?
The chart highlights a Descending Triangle formation, a bearish continuation pattern suggesting potential downside momentum if the support breaks.
Resistance Zone: 6310 (aligned with the upper boundary of the triangle).
Support Levels: T1: 6280 - T2: 6250 - T3: 6200
Bearish OB (Order Block): The price recently tested the Bearish Order Block near 6,310, reinforcing this level as a strong resistance.
Bullish Breakout: A confirmed breakout above 6,310 with strong volume could spark a significant rally, potentially targeting higher resistance levels.
Bearish Continuation:
A breakdown below 6,280 may open the door for further downside, aiming for 6,250 (T2) and possibly 6,200 (T3).
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for informational purposes only. Please trade responsibly and consult a financial expert before making any trading decisions.
Patience and discipline are crucial. Always wait for solid confirmation before entering any trades to minimize risks and align with the trend.
If you found this breakdown insightful, don’t forget to like, share, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Your engagement inspires me to share more valuable insights. Let’s keep learning and growing together—happy trading!
Fibs don't lieAnalysts are saying the following about WTI crude NYMEX:MCL1! , "Additionally after the overnight sell-off and the Saudi news, there is likely to be some buying from traders covering shorts ahead of a strong band of support in the $70/68 region". Fib retracements seem to support this analysis.
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2.
Invalidation is a daily close above 75.
short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
WTI selloff stalls around cluster of big levelsWTI crude has seen a 11% correction from its January high, and 11 of the past 13 days since the high have been down days. But there is a glimmer of hope for bulls as prices are holding above several key levels of support, just above the $70 handle.
Tuesday's bullish pinbar held above respected the 200-day EMA and 50% retracement levels, while respecting the 200 and 50-day EMAs. It also saw a minor (and ultimately false) break of the $71 handle and November high.
While Wednesday was a down day, it was also an inside day. And this suggests a hesitancy to break immediately lower with demand around $71.
This may be on the scrappy side, but bulls could consider longs around the current lows and seek a rebound to either Wednesday's high, just beneath the $73. Though a higher target could be considered should a fundamentally bullish catalyst arrive.
The bias remains bullish above $70, but $70.49 could also be used to improve the reward-to-risk ratio.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
Oil Long - Capitulate First, Rise LaterMajority is long so give your SL some space while waiting for moon.
CRUDE OIL FUTURES BUY SETUPBecause it didnt make a new low on the 4 hr MacD, the 1 hr made a big push upward followed by a 15min retest to continue up towards the previous high
Energy Market Struggles ContinueEnergy markets have been under pressure since the recent highs in mid January. Today, markets like Crude Oil and Natural Gas are seeing selling pressure as both are trading near critical trading levels. The March Crude Oil contract saw a strong move to the upside looking to test the April 2024 highs, and the market entered overbought territory which could have led to some selling pressure. Traders will be watching the Crude Inventories report released tomorrow to gain a better understanding of the current supply and the direction it is moving.
Getting away from the technical side of Crude Oil, there is a significant amount of uncertainty surrounding the future supply of Oil, with geopolitical tensions across the world and added tariffs. This market, with both volatility and uncertainty, shines light on the importance of choice of size when trading CME products. The Crude Oil contracts range from the full sized contract at 1,000 barrels, the mini contract at 500 barrels, and the micro contract at 100 barrels giving traders the ability to choose a smaller or larger size based on their own risk tolerance.
Finally, we'd like to let all our readers know that CME Group has partnered with TradingView to host The Futures Leap, a 1-month trading challenge through which participants can learn to master futures markets, trade big events and compete for a share of a 25K prize purse. Click here to register for this event.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CRUDE - LONGMCX:CRUDEOIL1! Momentum continue above 6481 to 7400 this time. Weekly chart also bullish.
Oil Prices Surge as U.S. Targets Iran's ExportsWTI crude oil, under pressure for the past couple of weeks pops higher after running sell stops below $72. The rebound being supported by news the US secretary of state will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with Treasury to implement a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero"
CL - Crude Oil is approaching the Center-Line SupportAs mentioned in the previous analysis, we see that CL pushed back and comes right to where we expect it to go, down to the Center-Line.
Our job here is to observe how it reacts in here. Support at the Center-Line, or a blow through, or swinging around it?
Patience is key, and the observation time is very valuable, because we can learn from it and feed our stats.
Patience young Padavan, patience. §8-)
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Light Crude Oil Bullish Bias: Market Sentiment for Retail
As of February 4, 2025, light crude oil prices have been exhibiting an upward trend, influenced by various market dynamics.
Current Market Sentiment:
Supply Constraints: OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current plan of gradually increasing oil production starting in April, despite pressures to reduce prices.
REUTERS.COM
Demand Projections: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil consumption will rise from 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 103.9 million bpd.
IEA.ORG
Geopolitical Factors: Recent U.S. tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, have introduced market uncertainties. These actions could potentially slow U.S. economic growth and increase inflation, factors that may influence oil prices.
FT.COM
Considerations for Retail Traders:
While the current sentiment leans bullish due to supply constraints and projected demand growth, it's essential to remain cautious. Geopolitical developments and policy changes can rapidly alter market conditions. As a retail trader, it's advisable to monitor these factors closely and employ prudent risk management strategies when considering positions in light crude oil.
Note: This analysis is based on information available as of February 4, 2025. Market conditions are subject to change, and it's important to stay updated with the latest data and news.
