AGL (Long) - Bucking the overall market trendAs I was scrolling through many many charts, I realized its very difficult these days to find a stock that trades on its own accord, without copying the (very volatile) path of the overall market. But I managed to find one which showed almost no correlation to the recent frenzy - NYSE:AGL
Fundamentals
The underlying fundamentals of NYSE:AGL are difficul t to say the least, though getting better - hence the recent bump in the share price on the back of a few upgrades from analysts
With a P/S of 0.4 we can confidently say the valuation is low, but we can't really blame the investors for taking the share price down - despite an amazing growth rate (from 4.3bn in 2023 to 6bn in 2024), the firm is unable to keep its costs and cash position in check
With 6bn in revenue , the firm wasn't able to turn a positive gross profit(!)
So, I wouldn't look at it yet as a long-term play, though if the firm can put its finances in order, it could be a large player in the definitely-not-getting-smaller space of senior healthcare
But the short-term momentum is intruiging
Technicals
First thing to note is that fascinating bifurcation from the broader market (see the relative strength indicator on the weekly); NYSE:AGL was nicely treading 6% higher today while AMEX:SPY was bleeding 7% - I appreciate stocks like that during these volatile days
Plus,it has momentum - a couple of upgrade sent the stock surging and there is a gap to fill, which I would like to take advantage off
Other than that, it doesn't really scream buy, so I am not going to sell it as a high-conviction play (no usual accumulation patterns :/) - I am currently looking at it as a diversification play with a momentum tailwind
Trade
I bought it on the recent pop higher and plan to hold until it breaks the little bottom it created after it surged (red line)
I don't plan to marry the stock for longer, I will give it one chance and if it breaks, then I retreat - potential holding time is about a month , or about 5 U-turns in the US tariff policy
The stock can be still entered with the same stop/loss but a slightly worse risk/reward
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