Reflection on the connection between Trump's policies and tariffTrump’s trade policy follows Sun Tzu’s advice—he keeps his plans secret and acts suddenly but is sometimes open to negotiation.
His trade war aims to reduce trade deficits and increase government revenue. While China, Mexico, and the EU are his main targets, Canada has also been affected.
Mexico and Canada secured a 30-day break from tariffs by promising stricter border control and measures against fentanyl trafficking.
China responded with small counter-tariffs on U.S. oil, coal, and gas, investigated U.S. companies, and filed a complaint with the WTO.
Trump has left the extra tariffs in place and is in no hurry to negotiate with China’s President X!!
These trade tensions have led to market instability. The euro is struggling due to tariff risks, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are affected by U.S.-China tensions. The Canadian dollar has recovered slightly, but its future depends on how border issues are handled.
Investors are watching tariff news closely but are also focusing on economic data like U.S. job reports, inflation, and central bank decisions. European and UK economic updates, Norway’s oil market outlook, and Trump’s meeting with Japan’s leader could also influence the markets.
I highlighted an important factor above that could impact the value of certain stocks. What do you think these stocks might be?
China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil (10%) and coal/LNG (15%) could negatively impact several American companies in the energy sector, especially those that export these commodities to China. The main companies affected might include:
Oil Companies
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Chevron (CVX)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
These companies rely on global crude oil demand, and tariffs could reduce their export opportunities to China, potentially lowering revenues.
Coal Companies
Peabody Energy (BTU)
Arch Resources (ARCH)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
China is a major coal consumer, and a 15% tariff could make U.S. coal exports less competitive, favoring suppliers from Australia or Indonesia instead.
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Companies
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Tellurian (TELL)
Sempra Energy (SRE)
China is one of the world's largest LNG importers. A tariff could push Chinese buyers toward alternative suppliers like Qatar and Australia, potentially reducing U.S. LNG exports and affecting revenue growth.
Broader Impacts
Shipping & Logistics: Companies involved in transporting these commodities, like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), could see reduced demand.
Manufacturing & Equipment: Companies like Caterpillar (CAT), which provides equipment for oil, gas, and coal industries, may experience indirect effects if production slows down.
Thus China’s tariffs could reduce demand for U.S. energy exports, hurt profits for oil, coal, and LNG companies, and shift trade flows to other countries.
Yes, you’re seeing it correctly—AMR is there as well, and indeed, it has already been on my watchlist. Based on this, I’m analyzing the chart from a technical perspective, and it’s possible that I will short AMR using a put option, because AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources) is heavily tied to the coal industry, so China's 15% tariff on U.S. coal could negatively impact demand, potentially leading to a decline in AMR’s stock price. If China reduces coal imports from the U.S. and shifts to other suppliers, it could hurt AMR’s revenue.
