Alexandria Real Estate | ARE | Long at $97.41Alexandria Real Estate NYSE:ARE
Pros:
Pays a high and reliable dividend of 5.56%
Earnings are forecast to grow 18.52% per year
Revenue rose from $1.5 billion to $3 billion by Q3 2024
Insiders recently awarded a large amount of options in January 2025
Historically cyclical and bottom cycle may be ending soon
Cons:
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
P/E of 57.93x
May see further near-term declines in share price with poor earnings ($60s-$70s, bottom is unconfirmed)
Targets (into 2027)
$120.00
$140.00
$149.00
$199.00
$220.00 (long-term outlook)
ARE trade ideas
I like this oneI know trading in the monthly timeframe is not fun, but is very reliable. I feel comfortable adding and adding every pullback on patterns of high timeframes. Here we have an inverse HS about to break out. I'll buy and buy until the breakout. Then I'll just let it rip. Strong support at 112, SL triggers if a weekly candles breaks it down and closes below it.
#FED causing Commercial Real Estate/ Banking CollapseCommercial real estate
"..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose.
Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US work force now works remotely since May 2020. The decline in demand for commercial properties has worsened by recent tech layoffs. The value of office sector REITs have fallen by about 55% which translates into a 33% reduction in the value of office buildings.
The default rate of between 10-20% in commercial real estate which was the lower end seen during the worst of 2008 would result in about $80-160 billion in additional bank losses. This would be ruinous for hundreds of smaller and midsize regional banks that have already been weakened by higher interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis spread from the housing sector to the rest of the economy as large banks with exposure to housing took tremendous losses.
Today, the Fed has created a moral hazard in guaranteeing depositors. Bank executives may take bigger risks if they believe the Fed will step in to protect depositors."
the b[AI]te's weekly insights -- ARE 2021-01-11center stage image
stock
our system found that ARE received the best image over the course of last week.
comment image
we see a strong positive correlation with our image indicator. We therefore assume that prices are driven emotionally and might not reflect an accurate picture of the companies current state of affairs.
comment event
on 2021-01-06 we categorized the last incoming headlines as an STRATEGIC event. We found the following topics as part of the aforementioned event:
developer - fenway
buying - fenway
landmark - center
$ - 1.52b
1.52b - deal
FAQ
ATTENTION
our algorithms define ATTENTION as the overall number of stories and opinions that appear for a given security each day
IMAGE
our algorithms define IMAGE as the averaged sentiment value extracted from all opinions received for a given security per day.
BreakoutHigh Relative Volume for past few days. expecting a run up. As previous breakout gap has been filled and potentially poised to halt for couple of days and then a run up is expected.
One negative point - last trading day stock was down with the relative volume of over 5
2 positions
1. 1 ATR target
2. trailing stop for every 2 ATR move.
Stop - Close all if market takes out 1.5 ATR.
New Earning that might lead to new bull move in AREThe new earning report released for ARE increase more than 300% since the last report in October 28 2019. (EPS) of ARE is (1.74) compared (-0.44) to the last report. This earning can be the new bull move of this company because earning is what matter as I published here .
I totally recommend investing in this stock for at least the next quarter and see if the new earning beats this earning or at least maintain it , then keep investing in it until you notice dropped in earning.
ARE & Real Estate to Bottom Summer of 2021 : brschultzFine tuning of my momentum model to on a large scale to perfect it & sync it to daily models so as to allow for short term momentum trends to determine optimal buy points & peak points on smaller timeframes ( eue.tu.ub).
brschultz / markettimer777