Baba to $85 in 2 to 3 weeks200ema crossover in the works and overall baba seems to have found it's bottom. Looking to enter around $77 with at least a 2 point stoploss. 10 points is a conservative price target.
BABA trade ideas
Baba BULLISHFinancial Risks and Solvency:
Revenue Growth: Alibaba has shown consistent revenue growth across its segments, particularly in its core e-commerce and cloud computing businesses. However, the growth rate has decelerated compared to previous years, indicating potential market saturation or increased competition.
Profitability Concerns: Despite revenue growth, there's a notable fluctuation in net income, primarily due to non-operating factors like impairments and changes in the fair value of investments. This volatility adds financial risk.
Solvency: Alibaba maintains a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves, suggesting solid solvency. However, the increased capital expenditure and strategic investments could impact short-term liquidity.
Market Stability:
Regulatory Environment: The Chinese regulatory crackdown on tech giants, including Alibaba, introduces market instability and unpredictability. Regulatory risks remain a significant concern for future growth and market stability.
International Expansion: Alibaba's aggressive international expansion, particularly through its Digital Commerce and Cainiao segments, diversifies its market presence but also exposes the company to geopolitical risks and operational challenges in new markets.
Bullish Fundamentals:
Cloud Computing Growth: Alibaba Cloud continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, indicating strong market demand for cloud services in China and internationally. This segment could be a significant growth driver moving forward.
E-commerce Leadership: Despite regulatory challenges, Alibaba maintains its leadership in the e-commerce market in China, with significant growth opportunities in cross-border and rural e-commerce.
Technological Innovation: Investments in AI, cloud computing, and logistics enhance Alibaba's competitive edge and long-term growth prospects.
Bearish Fundamentals:
Regulatory Risks: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential fines could impact profitability and growth prospects.
Competition: Intensifying competition in e-commerce and cloud computing from domestic and international players could erode Alibaba's market share.
Global Expansion Risks: Challenges in international markets, including regulatory hurdles, cultural differences, and competition, could impede growth outside China.
Financials:
Revenue Diversification: Alibaba's diversified business model across e-commerce, cloud, digital media, and entertainment provides multiple revenue streams, reducing reliance on a single segment.
Profit Margins: Margins have been under pressure due to increased competition and higher costs associated with strategic investments. Monitoring margin recovery will be crucial.
Cash Flow and Investments: Strong cash flow supports strategic investments, share repurchases, and dividends, enhancing shareholder value. However, the allocation of capital towards growth initiatives versus shareholder returns warrants close observation.
Conclusion:
Investing in Alibaba presents a balanced risk-reward scenario. The company's strong market position, diversified business model, and technological advancements offer solid growth prospects. However, regulatory risks, market competition, and global expansion challenges pose significant threats. Investors should weigh Alibaba's growth potential against these risks and consider the company's ability to navigate regulatory environments and sustain profitability amidst increasing competition.
$BABA has some interesting tail winds into $82I have been just watching NYSE:BABA since the news that Jack Ma resurfaced, but haven't taken much interest in it until now. It seems like the stock wants to break the down trend, possibly filling the 92-94 gap, but first it needs to move through the following levels>
Here is the plan for long. Watch these levels for calls and possible points of resistance:
$76.33 mini gap fill. Acceptance above 75.13 can take it up to $77.98. $77.22 somewhat relevant level.
Acceptance above $78 can take it up to $80.9
Acceptance above $80.9 can take it to test that $82-$83.7 range. $81.03 somewhat relevant level.
Let's see how NYSE:BABA trades to the upside in the coming weeks.
$BABA Inverse Head & ShouldersNYSE:BABA Inverse Head & Shoulders
inverse head and shoulders" pattern is a bullish reversal pattern commonly observed in financial markets, particularly in stock charts. It typically indicates a reversal of a downtrend and the beginning of a potential uptrend.
Here's a description of the inverse head and shoulders pattern:
- **Formation**: The pattern consists of three troughs. The first trough, or the left shoulder, is formed during a downtrend and is followed by a rally to a higher peak, known as the head. After the head, the price declines again, forming the second trough, which is usually lower than the left shoulder. The final trough, or the right shoulder, forms as the price rallies again but fails to reach the height of the head.
- **Neckline**: A trendline drawn connecting the peaks of the left shoulder and the head forms the neckline of the pattern. When the price breaks above this neckline after the formation of the right shoulder, it is considered a bullish signal.
- **Volume**: Volume tends to decrease as the pattern forms, then increases when the price breaks above the neckline, confirming the pattern.
- **Confirmation**: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks decisively above the neckline on high volume. This breakout suggests that bullish momentum has overcome previous selling pressure, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Traders often use the height of the pattern (from the head to the neckline) to estimate a potential price target once the pattern is confirmed. Overall, the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable bullish signal, but like any technical pattern, it is not foolproof and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis.
Alibaba Food Delivery Head Steps Down In a move indicative of Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) ongoing strategic evolution, longtime executive Yu Yongfu is set to step down as CEO of the firm's local services division by the end of March. This significant management reshuffle underscores Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) commitment to adaptability and innovation in the fiercely competitive Chinese market landscape. With changes at the helm of key subsidiaries such as Ele.me and Amap, Alibaba is ( NYSE:BABA ) poised to recalibrate its approach to local services and drive sustainable growth amidst evolving consumer preferences.
Leadership Transition at Ele.me and Amap:
The divisional restructuring will see Wu Zeming assuming the role of chairman at Ele.me, Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) prominent food delivery platform, while Han Liu steps into the position of chief executive. Meanwhile, Liu Zhenfei and Guo Ning will assume leadership roles as chairman and CEO, respectively, at Amap, Alibaba's mapping and navigation service. These leadership changes signal a strategic realignment aimed at optimizing operational efficiency and fostering innovation within Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) local services ecosystem.
Implications for Alibaba's Competitive Positioning:
Ele.me's stature as one of China's largest food delivery players positions it as a crucial component of Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) local services portfolio. However, despite its prominence, Ele.me has faced stiff competition from market leader Meituan. The management reshuffle underscores Alibaba's determination to fortify Ele.me's market position and enhance its competitiveness in the rapidly evolving food delivery landscape. Meituan's shares surged by 10% following news of the reshuffle, reflecting investor sentiment regarding the potential impact on market dynamics.
Continued Evolution Under New Leadership:
The executive reshuffle at Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) local services division is part of a broader pattern of management changes within the company. Previous transitions, including the succession of Daniel Zhang by Eddie Wu, have signaled Alibaba's commitment to strategic agility and long-term sustainability. As Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) navigates the dynamic landscape of Chinese e-commerce and technology, the appointment of new leadership underscores the company's focus on driving innovation, enhancing operational efficiency, and delivering value to stakeholders.
BABA forming a head and shoulders patternThis chonk has been talked about alot. Because we are all trying to figure out why the 2nd amazon of the world has been beat down so bad.
So, here we are, with a beautiful and crystal clear line in the sand thick neck line. Break that neck line, confirm the pattern, off to the races. 125 target long term ,then reestablish a view. ||Chart is inverted.
9988 Baba HKEX Bullish Ready for a bull run up.
-Crossed Macd on daily view
-Divergence at 4H
- Resistance at 87 , if it breaks 87 , then look for 94
- Earning out on Nov 3rd,
- Watch for a Run up before earnings or after earnings.
- keep your stop losses & Trade within your limits.
Happy Trading.. !
Alibaba in HongKong break rejectedVolumes are five times greater than US and I think is useful to follow stock on HK market
Price cannot pass channeldown and long term trendline and this is a very bad signa
I think price will now drop to 64
Alibaba Group Holding LtdAlibaba Group Holding Ltd, finished inverse head and shoulders
Also double bottom pattern
BABA hit rock bottom at 66It seems like BABA bottom was defined @ 66
It is now slowly and steadily recovering but I wont call it a reversal until it hits the FIB golden pocket at 90+
Once it hits that target then an entry can be made to ride the wave to recovery
At the moment its still in bear trending channel so better to stay away until it hits 90
RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - BABAF EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - Stocks with breakout potential.
In this edition, we'll be looking at OTC:BABAF ...
I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility.
If price can hold above $9.65 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked.
My key upside targets include:
- $11.06 (Conservative)
- $12.89 (Medium)
- $14.98 (Aggressive)
If however price falls below $8.10 ... Bearish risk potential may be unlocked.
(My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart)
Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future.
If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below.
Mr RM | Risk Mastery
Disclaimer:
This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
BABA high probability setupBABA
I see a lot of confidence here
1. Head and shoulders pattern on daily, 3h.(one of my favorite pattern)
2. Risk reward to the upside, we really needs to stay and hold above 75.50, 78 and after BABA can see 88 then 90 very quick, I never use stop loss but my mental stop loss will be 70 per stock.
3. Possible chineese market find the bottom, and its great global company which suffer only because it located in China.
Its one of my top-5 holdings in long-term account, and now I will try to find an entry to buy some stocks in my swing account and stock option account.
Baba at major resistance! Earnings coming.There is an inverse H&S pattern on the chart.
If the earnings report comes good then I expect a major bullrun.
Price target 100$
BABA possible rejection zone. Target 76I´m expecting a rejection at 73,80 what will leads to strong momentum and reaching the target in this week. It is possible to trade this idea in the two ways.
1. Aggressive = with smaller size you will enter just after the US market open and you will close your trade if any 4H will close below the SL zone.
2. Conservative = with a bigger size you will enter after the price was rejected upwards from 73,80 and there is a clear 15M-30M close above 74,40. After entry, set your SL and trail it with 1ATR from 15M chart.
Wish you good luck.
BABA's ReturnWith price having pull-backed to extreme lows, it seems BABA has the chance to make its nearby future reversal. It's important to watch BABA as it nears $62, having a strong historical resistance to that point. Hoping retirement money comes early for us all.
ALI BABA GROUP HOLDINGS STOCK.WEEKLY ANALYSISHello ladies and gentleman,according my analysis To ALI BABA GROUP HOLDINGS STOCK .there is agreat probability long to 121usd.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - alibaba #2Greetings,
Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi.
I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments.
This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there.
Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run.
Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses.
Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP.
short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down.
medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
BABA Stock – Why 2024 Could Be Alibaba’s Year2023 stood out as a great year for global stocks, unleashing strong rallies across the U.S., Europe, Japan, and India. Yet, the same sentiment wasn’t felt in China. In fact, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks ended 2023 as the world’s worst-performing equity markets.
While this bad performance can be blamed on the various issues with China’s economy, such as the real estate crisis, weak consumer spending, and high youth unemployment, there’s no denying that China’s government is also to blame, with its unpredictable regulatory crackdowns that caused many tech companies’ valuations to sink.
One of these tech companies is the e-commerce titan Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), which saw a terrible year full of setbacks thanks to China’s policies and its tense relations with the U.S., and that led BABA stock to close the year at a valuation near its 52-week low!
Despite this, Alibaba still has a chance to turn its fate around. There are several catalysts that make BABA stock look like it’s set for a rebound in 2024, and as it slips closer to its lowest-ever valuation, now could be the perfect time to buy BABA stock.
Chinese Stocks Bad Performance
When we say that 2023 was a bad year for Chinese stocks, we really mean it. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index fell more than 11%, hitting five-year lows. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell almost 14%, marking its first four-year losing streak since its launch in 1969.
This terrible performance would’ve been unbelievable at the beginning of 2023 when investors were excited about Chinese stocks because Beijing abandoned its strict Zero-Covid policies and was opening up again in late 2022, so investors expected a quick economic recovery.
However, the rebound they expected didn’t come, and Chinese stocks failed to gain momentum because of a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy and a sluggish demand that created a risk of a deflationary spiral.
In addition to China’s own economic problems, the country’s regulatory landscape and relations with the U.S. worsened in 2023, especially harming Chinese tech stocks listed on U.S. exchanges.
BABA Stock Background
One such stock is BABA stock, which is currently nearing an all-time low valuation. This would’ve been unbelievable 10 years ago, when the Chinese company first went public.
Alibaba was at its peak when it went public in 2014. Then, it became the de facto e-commerce company in China, a leader in the country’s technology industry rivaled only by Tencent, and its prospects for growth seemed unlimited.
But now, most investors avoid BABA stock. The landscape of the market changed completely, and Alibaba now faces severe competition from companies like Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD) and Douyin (NASDAQ: DOYU).
It’s also no longer among the top-two technology companies in China by market cap. But, above all, long-term investors have suffered with the share price sinking to around $70 today, not far from its IPO price of $68.
BABA Stock’s Declining Valuation
There are multiple factors that contributed to Alibaba’s sinking valuation. Still, they all lead back to 2020 when Alibaba’s co-founder and former executive chairman, Jack Ma, publicly criticized China’s financial regulators and Chinese banks and accused them of stifling innovation.
As a result, the Chinese authorities pulled the plug on Alibaba’s affiliate financial services company Ant Group’s $37 billion IPO in November 2020 and ordered the company to restructure its business.
This ended the company’s plans for a dual listing in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, which would have been the biggest IPO in history. Ant Group was also fined $984 million by the regulators. Failing to take Ant Group public took a heavy toll on Alibaba’s valuation, with the combined market cap losses of the two companies reaching $877 billion.
After this instance, it seemed the regulators had completely turned against Alibaba. Beijing launched an antitrust investigation into the company and determined that it had abused its position as the market leader for years. As a result of the investigation, Alibaba was fined $2.8 billion and forced to change its algorithm for ranking search results.
By 2023, Alibaba had the Chinese government against it, was forced to pay billions in lawsuits, lost market cap to competitors, and was worth around a quarter of its peak valuation at more than $800 billion.
Why BABA Stock could Rebound
The company’s management knew it had to act, and its response was a complete restructuring of its business.
Alibaba split into six independently run companies that would seek separate IPOs, dismantling Jack Ma’s business empire. This was Alibaba’s way of leaving the Jack Ma era behind, and the company’s strategy to combat rising competition by speeding up decision-making and allowing each division to focus on growing itself.
But, it seemed like restructuring the company still wasn’t enough, as Alibaba was forced to cancel the spinoff of its $11 billion cloud computing business, Alibaba Cloud, in November, thanks to the tense U.S.-China relations and the trade war between the two countries that led to investigations and curbs on the technologies traded between the U.S. and China, especially chip technologies.
When Alibaba announced the cancellation of the spinoff, it cited uncertainties created by U.S. export curbs on chips used in artificial intelligence applications. As a result of failing to take Alibaba Cloud public, Alibaba’s market cap dropped by a massive $21.1 billion.
These problems have caused BABA stock to fall by more than 39% since its peak in January of 2023. However, some positive catalysts for BABA stock could lead to a rally in the future.
Restructuring
Alibaba has already taken a few steps to address and fix its problems. First of all, the company has restructured its business into six units and is looking to list them separately to create shareholder value and foster market competitiveness.
This would allow Alibaba’s businesses to become more agile, reversing the centralization Jack Ma started. It would help each business focus on its own growth and speed up decision-making in order to counter the increasing competition in the market and increase the company’s profitability.
Alibaba plans to give each business unit its own board and management team to run the business with total autonomy. It also changed its management team, replacing longtime CEO and chairman Daniel Zhang with new CEO Eddie Wu so Zhang could lead the company’s cloud computing business unit.
Alibaba’s management team also stated its commitment to increasing its investments in the company’s core businesses and the main drivers behind its growth, such as e-commerce, cloud computing, and logistics, which would allow it to improve the company’s profitability.
As the company focuses more on its core businesses, cloud computing and e-commerce, it will also monetize its non-core assets, which include $67 billion of equity securities and investments on its balance sheet, as well as other non-core operating businesses with low-growth or low returns.
This was good news for investors, as Alibaba monetizing its assets meant that it would be able to generate billions of revenue through assets that aren’t strategic to the business. It also offered the opportunity to pay investors dividends or give them more stocks. In fact, Alibaba has started paying dividends in the latest quarter.
Lastly, Alibaba is also spending billions of dollars in share buybacks, and repurchased $1.7 billion worth of its shares in the September quarter, leaving another $14.6 billion in its current buyback plan.
Artificial Intelligence
Alibaba has a lot of opportunities in the AI industry. This is because the company is expanding its footprint in the large language model (LLM) domain, which is a type of AI program that can recognize and generate text, among other tasks.
Alibaba Cloud has announced the open sourcing of its own LLMs, Qwen-72B and Qwen-1.8B. These releases are extremely important since they significantly widen the accessibility to advanced AI technologies in China.
Alibaba’s LLM models are known for outperforming industry benchmarks, which gives the company an opportunity for future growth as the global LLM market is expected to reach $40.8 billion by 2029, and having a leading position in the market would help Alibaba capitalize on this market growth.
In addition to developing its own AI models, Alibaba is also leading the cloud services sector in China with a 39% share, followed by Huawei Technologies and Tencent. Alibaba’s leading position in the Chinese cloud computing market provides it with many opportunities in a rapidly growing market. In fact, China’s cloud computing market is expected to reach $140 billion in 2025.
So, it’s obvious how Alibaba could see significant growth thanks to the rise of AI, especially when you consider China’s growing interest in the industry. The country even revealed plans back in 2017 to become the world’s leader in the industry by 2030.
China’s strong desire to become the global AI leader is shown in the amount it spent on AI projects in 2023 alone, which was around $15 billion, a rise of nearly 50% since 2021.
This heavy spending on AI will likely reach trillions of dollars, making AI a strategic driver of economic growth in China and indicating the large number of opportunities in the AI market for Alibaba, especially since the company is already one of its main players.
China’s Economic Recovery
Besides Alibaba’s AI prospects, the stock is expected to rally with other Chinese stocks thanks to the expected economic recovery in China.
The Chinese government has, in recent months, introduced a series of policies to attract investments to the country, as well as stimulus packages in order to revive its economy. The last financial injection by the Chinese government into the economy came in October 2023 in the form of sovereign bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in order to fund investment projects. It’s also likely that the government will focus on more fiscal steps to support growth into 2024.
President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s message made this clear, in which he acknowledged the recent headwinds the Chinese economy faced, and said that China would enhance the positive trend of its economic recovery in 2024, and sustain long-term economic development with deeper reforms.
The country’s banks are also taking action to counter the risk of deflation, with China’s central bank saying it would step up policy adjustments to support the economy and promote a rebound in prices.
Additionally, five of China’s largest state banks lowered interest rates on some deposits on December 22, which marked the third round of interest rate cuts in 2023. This could help the central bank move toward easing monetary policy.
China is also taking steps to better its economy, which includes heavy investments in research and development in order to develop new technologies and industries. The country now ranks second in the world in terms of total R&D spending.
The country also invests in creating special economic zones, where businesses can operate under more flexible regulations to attract foreign investment.Finally, the Chinese government has also implemented multiple policies to encourage domestic spending, such as tax breaks for homebuyers and subsidies for electronics consumers.
BABA Stock Forecast
Since it’s near its 52-week low, BABA stock could now provide a good investment opportunity once you consider factors such as Alibaba’s management’s plans to monetize the company’s less profitable assets to increase the value for shareholders, as well as the start of the dividend payouts at an indicated dividend yield of 1.26%.
Another important thing to consider is that Alibaba’s EPS will grow by a CAGR of 17.5% over the next five years and the fact that institutional ownership of BABA stock jumped by 100% in December 2023, a sign indicating the strong institutional interest in BABA stock as it fell to its 52-week low, which could mean that the stock is currently undervalued.
There’s also the prospect of China’s economic recovery. While it will not happen overnight, the Chinese government is taking multiple steps in the right direction to boost its economy.
With all of this in mind, and at its current price and valuation, it could be a great opportunity for investors who are interested in BABA stock as a long-term investment. However, investors should be aware of the risks of investing in Chinese tech companies, such as China’s unpredictable regulatory scrutiny, and the increased global and local competition in China.
BABA stock might be a promising opportunity for risk-tolerant investors who want a stake in China’s large and growing tech and AI market. If you’re interested in BABA stock, you might want to allocate only a small part of your portfolio, depending on your risk tolerance.
Aibaba (BABA)I find Alibaba to be a strange company. Despite having similar revenues to Facebook Meta, the latter is valued at ten times more.
This raises the question of whether Alibaba is intentionally keeping its valuation low. Nevertheless, they are still worth investing a bit.
$BABA - Well well...NYSE:BABA Looks like we may have a proper inverse head and shoulder with a neckline at $78. The right shoulder is yet to complete. Anything can happen.
As I said in my Feb 7 post, $70 support is critical.
Upside Targets:
$78
$84
$88
Downside risk:
$63
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t exited BABA when SoftBank sold its huge stake in the company:
nor reentered the technical rebound:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $4.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
