BigBear.ai's Big Win: FAA Contract Award Leads to 35% SurgeBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:BBAI ) saw its shares skyrocket by 35% to $1.80 after the company announced it had been awarded a significant subcontract under the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Information Technology Innovative Procurement Strategic Sourcing (ITIPSS) program. This announcement, made Wednesday, sent waves through the stock market, drawing the attention of investors and analysts alike.
A Strategic Partnership with Concept Solutions
BigBear.ai, a prominent player in the AI and emerging technologies sector, secured the subcontract as part of a broader team led by Concept Solutions, LLC (CS). The FAA’s ITIPSS contract, which carries a shared ceiling of $2.4 billion over ten years, is designed to acquire a full spectrum of IT capabilities, solutions, and emerging technologies to support the FAA’s mission of aviation safety and excellence.
BigBear.ai's role under this contract is pivotal. The company will provide critical support for managing information systems across the nation, enhancing operational and facility management capabilities, and assisting in the evolution of existing programs. This includes the implementation of innovative IT solutions that align with the FAA’s strategic goals, particularly in the realm of future technology modernization.
Implications for BigBear.ai
This contract is more than just a win for BigBear.ai (NYSE: NYSE:BBAI ) —it marks a significant milestone in the company’s journey. As a subcontractor, BigBear.ai (NYSE: NYSE:BBAI ) will play an integral role in facilitating the FAA’s IT initiatives, offering comprehensive, multi-disciplinary services that span IT resource management, financial management, and security. The company’s proven track record in supporting U.S. government agencies positions it as a key player in the federal space, particularly in delivering embedded support and facilitating deep integration of bespoke solutions.
Robert Wedertz, Senior Vice President of Federal at BigBear.ai, highlighted the significance of this partnership, stating, “Our proven history of supporting the U.S. Government has enabled us to rapidly modernize myriad bespoke solutions, facilitate deep integration, and provide embedded support. These core tenets of BigBear.ai partnerships distinguish us in the Federal space, and we are privileged to be part of this team.”
Market Reaction
The stock market responded positively to this news, with BigBear.ai’s shares (NYSE: NYSE:BBAI ) spiking 35% during Wednesday’s trading session. This surge reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on this contract and deliver value to its shareholders.
Technical Outlook
BigBear.ai's stock (NYSE: NYSE:BBAI ) has experienced a 27% increase in value as of the time of writing, currently trading near the overbought zone with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 64.77, indicating the potential for further growth. The daily price chart exhibits a gap up pattern, which typically fills in subsequent trading sessions. Accordingly, it is advisable for traders to exercise caution regarding a potential trend reversal.
Looking Ahead
The ITIPSS contract opens new doors for BigBear.ai, offering the company a platform to demonstrate its capabilities on a large scale. As the FAA continues to pursue its IT modernization goals, BigBear.ai is well-positioned to be a key contributor, providing innovative solutions that drive efficiency and safety in the aviation sector.
For investors, this contract represents a significant growth opportunity for BigBear.ai. The company’s involvement in such a high-profile federal initiative underscores its potential for long-term success in the AI and emerging technologies space.
As the FAA and its partners move forward with this ambitious IT project, all eyes will be on BigBear.ai to see how it leverages this opportunity to expand its footprint and drive innovation in the federal space.
BBAI trade ideas
BBAI may move higher from deeply oversold LONGBBAI fell on an earnings miss on Thursday, March 7th. The downtrend of 30% was a
slow flush. Penny stocks are volatile, to begin with; this one is in the hottest of subsectors.
Price is in the hard oversold area just below the first lower VWAP line on this 15-minute chart
which is acting as resistance. the RSI lines are in the 30s-40s showing the price weakness. A
predictive forecasting algo from Luxalgo suggests move up.
I will buy this weakness on the prospect things will improve. I will take a long trade with tiered
targets on the chart. partial closures of 25% , 50 and 25% respectively with the targets shown on
the chart. The stop loss is 2.00 just below the current price. The entry will be a limit order /
buy stop set for 2.5 It is selected as a POC line crossover on the volume profile.
The trade is to be managed with partial closures directed by alerts and notifications as well as
a trailing stop loss of 5% once the price gain has reached 10-15%. This minimizes effort and
screen time so that they can be spread across a wider variety of trades.
BBAI - a penny stock in a hot sector LONGBBAI fell on an earnings miss on Thursday March 7th. The downtrend of 30% was basically a
slow flush. Penny stocks are volatile to begin with; this one is in the hottest of subsectors.
Price is in the hard oversold area just above the second lower VWAP line on this 15 minute
while the RSI lines are in the mid-30s showing the price weakness. A predictive forecasting
algo from Luxalgo suggests a bounce from the present price. I will take a long trade targeting
a return of 25% over the next week with three targets and partial closures of 25% , 50 and
25% respectively with the targets shown on the chart. The stop loss is 2.50 just below the
pivot low of 2.5. This trade idea demonstrates how penny stocks have great volatility and
how if entered well can result in 25% weekly which if compounded regularly can result
in rapid account balance growth overall. The trade is to be managed with partial closures
directed by alerts and notifications as well as a trailing stop loss of 5% once the price gain
has reached 10-15%. This minmizes effort and screen time so that they can be spread
across a wider variety of trades.
BBAI Executives Bullish ahead of earnings on Thursday! Hi guys,
Long time no type... I hope you all have been trading well these past few months.
I believe that among the AI craze, NYSE:BBAI will be one of the numerous stocks to benefit and will likely increase in value substantially this month.
Here's why:
1.) AI in general is overhyped and is overwhelmingly captured the markets attention. We had the major impact of VANTAGE:NVIDIA touching all time highs after crushing their earnings and subsequently the S&P 500 benefited and reached all time highs as well touching $5100+.
2.) Since many people feel like they may have missed the boat, I believe that smaller market AI stocks will get a similar injection of funds and should rise by proxy. Outside of that, BBAI originally had an all time high of around $16/share post IPO. Major hedge funds sold out of most of their positions in Q1 of 2022 and we have now seen a very significant change in events in my opinion...
3.) NYSE:BBAI stock has been rocketing these past few weeks and most importantly this week has surged another 35% at the time of writing this. I believe that the timing of this surge and their scheduled earnings call on Thursday are very much connected and that we will likely be trying to retest the previous all time high of 2023 which was $7/share. Also worth noting that for the first time in over a year the executive and inside traders have amassed 61.8 million plus shares JUST THIS WEEK. Compare this to their last purchase and that was a mere 353k shares in December of 2023 making this move 175x the size of the pervious purchase by insiders.
Let me know what you guys think, I'm excited and am holding many contracts with a strike price of $7 per share as I suspect that will be around where the price will land after earnings.
*I am not a financial advisor, these are my opinions and not financial advice. Do not copy my trades or buy anything that I post, please do you own d&d.*
$BBAI AI Stocks Are On The Rise AgainSmashing its EPS and revenue estimates by $0.17 and $670 million respectively, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) jumped more than 25% in after-hours trading. Almost 60% of the $7.19 billion NVDA recorded in revenue was from AI-related activity and NVDA expects that the vast majority of its sequential increase in revenue in Q2 will come from data centers. After such big news the AI sector could run rampant and BigBear.AI Holdings, Inc (NYSE: BBAI) is an AI stock that could be setting up for major runs this week.
BBAI Fundamentals
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBAI) has diverse AI applications, serving different sectors in different ways. That was made more apparent after BBAI secured an exclusive deal with both Children’s Hospital Colorado and Thomas Jefferson University Hospitals. That is a huge deal for BBAI as it was mainly operating in the defense sector, which it has been seeing a lot of success in lately. Earlier in April BBAI signed a contract with L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: LHX) a key leader in unmanned and autonomous systems to be its exclusive partner to deliver AI/ML-based forecasting. These contracts are proof that BBAI is seen as a long-term player in the AI sector that is diversifying its portfolio of customers.
Furthermore, BBAI also beat its revenue estimates earlier this month by $4.82 million recording $42.2 million and it is looking to achieve positive cash flow in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that BBAI stock usually runs on industry-wide catalysts like its recent 27% run in April on news of Elon Musk starting an AI company – X.AI. Considering NVDA’s earnings being driven by AI, BBAI stock could see a similar run as the AI sector is set to witness high momentum this week.
Technical Analysis
BBAI stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $2.36 and $2.51. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading below the 200 MA which is a bearish indication, and is currently testing the 21 and 50 MAs. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 51 and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.
As for the fundamentals, BBAI stock and other AI stocks are expected to run in sympathy with NVDA thanks to its AI-driven revenue growth. With AI showing its capability to drive more revenues in the future, BBAI stock could be a profitable buy at the current PPS especially since it is trading near support.
BBAI Forecast
AI and AI stocks are hot topics right now. After NVDA announced its extremely positive Q1 and its extremely positive guidance for Q2, it is expected that the AI sector will gain a lot of interest. As BBAI is a relatively cheap AI stock that has a history of running on sector-wide catalysts, it makes the perfect candidate for investors wanting to ride on the AI wave at the moment.
BBAI Swing Trade BBAI has been on a consistent downtrend since the AI hype earlier in Q1. It has however seemed to find a new support here in May with the potential to move upwards. According to FinViz.com Float Short is over 15% with increased volatility for the week and higher relative volume. I think this makes this stock a could candidate for a short term swing trade.
$BBAI The Go-To AI Provider For Federal AgenciesThe recent AI hype following the release of Open AI’s ChatGPT had a significant effect on the majority of AI stocks including BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI). BBAI is a leading AI-driven decision-making software provider, where the company mainly serves the US national defense and intelligence agencies. However, the company started expanding to more commercial markets throughout the previous year – specifically in industries with a high AI addressable market. With Elon Musk starting his new AI company, BBAI stock and other AI stocks could witness another phase of hype. This could cause a possible short squeeze following the recent short interest on BBAI stock after recent speculations about possible AI industry regulations.
BBAI Fundamentals
After the recent success and widespread use of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, AI stocks witnessed a significant amount of hype causing a large number of AI stocks to run massively last February. Some of these stocks are C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE: AI), Soundhound AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOUN), Guardforce AI Co., Limited (NASDAQ: GFAI), and BBAI stock that ran nearly 118% during the first week of February.
BBAI has a long 22-year history of providing the Department of Defense and Intelligence agencies with better decision-making via AI-powered predictive analytics software solutions and empowering strategic actions via cyber engineering, cloud transformation, and agile operations expertise and resources. BBAI serves a total of 19 US Defense and Intelligence Agencies including the U.S. Intelligence Community, the Department of Defense, and the U.S. Federal Government.
Also, the company has secured a number of contracts over the past few years including a Multiple Award 10-Year HKEX:900 Million IDIQ Contract with the U.S. Air Force, a nine-month $14.8 million Army contract to roll out the service’s Global Force Information Management system, and a five-year, single award National Security Agency contract. Since BBAI doesn’t have any known competitors in this niche, the company has a major competitive edge which could allow it to be one of the best artificial intelligence stocks to hold onto for the long term.
However, BBAI started expanding to other markets with the company acquiring ProModel corporation – a provider of simulation-based predictive analytics software – last year which added more than 200 commercial customers to the company. This acquisition allowed BBAI to provide its AI and machine learning solutions to new markets with significantly high compound annual growth rates (CAGR) such as healthcare, shipbuilding, manufacturing, and other industries. In this way, BBAI expects to grow its commercial sales to 10% of total revenues in 2022 from only 1% in 2021.
With this in mind, the AI/ML market is expected to reach HKEX:310 billion, but most importantly, AI/ML in target industries in the manufacturing, healthcare, and supply chain industries is seeing fast growth. The AI/ML addressable market is expected to increase from $2.3 billion to $16.4 billion in 2027 with a CAGR of 47.9% in the manufacturing industry, from $6.9 billion to $67.4 billion in the Healthcare industry with a CAGR of 26.2% and from $2.3 billion to $21.8 billion in the supply chain industry with CAGR of 45.3%.
At the same time, the DoD is accelerating its AI deployment where its addressable market is expected to increase from $6.6 billion to $13.7 billion. With BBAI serving such growing markets the BBAI stock forecast should be looking promising throughout the coming years.
Moving forward, BBAI is looking to further expand its market reach with the company targeting maritime and space/satellites industries after already witnessing some early commercial success in these industries. BBAI is also working on serving more customer needs by partnering with big names such as Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK), Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)’s AWS via technology integration.
Despite operating at a loss, BBAI has been seeing a steady increase in revenues over the past few years with the company’s revenues increasing from $145.6 million to $155 million over the last year. BBAI also still has HKEX:222 million of federal contract backlogs as of December 2022.
Elon Musk recently launched his own AI company called X.AI Corp which might be a future competitor to OpenAI and its ChatGPT. The company was registered on March 9, and Musk recruited Igor Babuschkin, a scientist working at the artificial intelligence lab DeepMind which is owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet. This could lead to another ChatGPT situation causing even more hype for AI stocks in the future, which could have a positive effect on the BBAI stock forecast.
Recent speculations about possible regulation concerns in the AI industry caused some uncertainty in the AI space – causing an increase in BBAI stock’s short interest at the start of April. As of now, BBAI has a short interest of 17.5%, a high 272.51% cost to borrow, and a 100% utilization rate. As a result, a short squeeze could occur if AI hype continues to grow drastically in the near term following Musk’s AI venture.
BBAI Financials
In its 2022 annual report, BBAI reported $195.3 million in assets, including $12.6 million in cash. BBAI witnessed a decline in assets from $383.3 million including $68.9 million in cash and HKEX:101 million in restricted cash in 2021. BBAI’s liabilities declined YoY to $233.1 million from $260.9 million as its current liabilities declined to $35.7 million from HKEX:70 million. However, the company still has $192.3 million in long-term debt.
BBAI’s revenues grew YoY to $155 million from $145.5 million and its gross profit increased from HKEX:34 million to $42.9 million. However, its operating loss widened to $110.5 million from $78.4 million due to a goodwill impairment expense of $53.5 million. Finally, the company’s net loss slightly decreased YoY to $121.6 million from $123.5 million
Technical Analysis
BBAI stock is trading in an upward channel above the 200 MA which indicates that the trend is bullish. Looking at the indicators, BBAI stock is now trading below the 21 MA and the 50 MA. Moreover, the RSI is neutral at 44 and the MACD is bearish.
Fundamentally, BBAI stock has no major upcoming catalysts. However, AI stocks have been climbing over the past week due to increasing AI hype. Considering Musk’s latest AI venture and the momentum behind AI stocks like BBAI, it could continue its upwards trend in the short term.
If the lower trendline and support holds, a possible play could be to go long after the break out above the 50 MA in hopes of a retest of the upper trendline. Traders could take profit at the 21 MA and the upper trend line with a stop loss right below the $3.06 support. This could offer an R:R of 2 at the 21 MA.
Since BBAI stock has been making lower highs, the support level may break offering the opportunity to take a short position entering after the break with the 50 MA acting as a stop loss and the $2.80 support acting as a take profit. This could offer an R:R of 3.11.
BBAI Forecast
After the recent hype on AI stocks, BBAI started to gain some recognition during the month of February. BBAI already has a large presence in the governmental market with its impressive number of federal contracts, however, it started to expand even more by targeting commercial markets by acquiring ProModel Corporation. BBAI stock forecast could be promising as these markets have a high CAGR percentage. Moreover, the company is integrating the technologies of companies such as Autodesk, Palantir, and Amazon’s AWS to fulfill customer needs. AI stocks could potentially witness another hype phase following the launch of Elon Musk’s AI company X.AI Corp which might cause a short squeeze on BBAI stock as it had an increase in its short interest this month due to concerns about AI regulations. With this in mind, BBAI stock is an AI stock to keep an eye on over the coming months.
Watchlist 2023-03-06 $AI $ASAN $PATH $BBAI $TAL $ESPR $ESPRSPY - finished the week with some incredible bullish action, giving bears absolutely no chance to gain momo. Be cautions with the momo continuing today as we are reaching the previous range bottom res. At 405.
AI related names back in play with C3.AI earnings results.
AI, ASAN, PATH, BBAI
TAL - breaking above the 7.77 res. Yesterday. Formed a very nice base over the 200 MA. Daily buy set up as the 9 EMA is crossing over the 21 EMA. Still Looking for a pullback near the 8.00 level for a long
ON - massive fakeout 2 days ago which got rid of all the crowded buyers after the tesla chip news, now closing very strong the last two days near the key 80 flat range top. This may need another day or two of consolidation at this level but it looks prime for a daily buy setup.
ESPR - if ESPR can fakeout below the 4.87 pivot, trap shorts, then there is a potential for a long setup. However, we are below an emissive about of supply, so if the tape is very weak. There is a potential short setup, don’t watch to be first to a short flag play, but if the 4.87 level stay heavy, could join.
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts.
Yellow = Support
Purple = Resistance
Red = short opportunity
Green= long opportunity
Watchlist 2023-03-03 $AI $ASAN $PATH $BBAI $TAL $MRVL SPY - finally snapping the multi day losing streak and rallying up to 1.46% back into the upper channel of the range. There were some signs that bulls were in control yesterday, in the afternoon when it made a double test of the 393.50 area and failed to get below. But to put it simply, it was making higher highs and higher lows all day. Things really took off when Atlanta Fed President Bostic made some dovish comments about 25 basis points rather than a 50 bps. Keep an ear open today as further comments from Fed officials will start at 11:45 ET.
Long Watches:
AI related names back in play with C3.AI sites "substantially improving" market sentiment and earnings results.
AI, ASAN, PATH, BBAI
TAL - breaking above the 7.77 res. Yesterday. Formed a very nice base over the 200 MA. Daily buy set up as the 9 EMA is crossing over the 21 EMA. Looking for a minor pullback to get long.
Short Watches:
MRVL - declines after inventory corrections weigh on earnings forecast. Gap rules are telling me it's a level 2 gap, below 200 MA, below key 42.17 pivot, negative catalyst, PD wide range green bar to trade longs and flush shorts. So the bias is short, however, yesterday's rally does not get me excited for any shorts, at least for a long intra hold. WE will need to test and fail on some resistance levels and ensure there is relative weakness to the market before taking trades on MRVL. If those align, room to 38.50
I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts.
Yellow = Support
Purple = Resistance
Red = short opportunity
Green= long opportunity
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This would be the BEST case scenario. Lots of ways to count but again this is the count with the quickest turn around. Because of the lack of conviction, it has to prove the turn to me. $3.00 is the ideal area for this idea. Then it need to put an impulse up with a correction facing down as illustrated.
Cheers!
Possible Descending Triangle Possible descending triangle on BBAI. The break down target is around 2.8 and and break to the upside upper 6 dollars. I am under the impression price breaks to the downside, but I have no idea. I will buy a put instead of shorting to manage risk. This thing could easily squeeze higher and I don't want to try to cover a short. The premium on the put is not that bad a few months out.
Not financial advice.