Over supply of Steel and Rising Energy CostsQuantitative Analysis
Stock is forecasted to have sequentially negative earnings growth momentum for fiscal 2023 and 2024 (below sector average).
Stock P/E on a discount to sector.
KPI
Market volatility in Europe is a headwind. Higher scrap margins on steel products add to the concerns. Global steel-making capacity exceeds demand for steel products in some regions globally. Excessive imports of steel into the United States continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. steel prices.
Revenue forecasted to fall 1.57% in fiscal 2023 compared to fiscal 2022. It is also forecasted to continue falling a further 4.90% in fiscal 2024 compared to the estimated revenue of fiscal 2023.
Net income before tax forecasted to fall in fiscal 2023 and 2024 due to scrap costs and uncertainties in Europe.
Increase in crude oil and energy prices.
Trade Structure
Oct 55/50 Bear Put
CMC trade ideas
CMC- BEARISH SCENARIOThe uptrend for Commercial Metals Company is still valid, but the re-test of the major support level is inevitable. The next price target is $ 41
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Is it just me or is CMC tanking for no reason? Maybe I'm missing something but a company tanking 23% over the course of less than a month with the financials they are boasting from Q1, and being in a generally stable sector seems a bit odd. If this is a correction from the growth it's experienced since October it sure is sudden and extreme.
$CMC at swing high. Target: $42I sometimes let my pendulum choose a stock from pages of MANY tickers. I request an A+ trade that's easy.
CMC was the pick (strangely along with CMG), and the dowsing reading I get is it starts a move down from here to a target in the $42 area. I didn't ask how long this takes. Options are monthly, so I would think by the Dec. expiration it'll hit. It's already working as it was up a couple percent this morning and is now selling pretty well and down over 2%.
$CMCWhy am i interested?
Change in color of bar to Blue.
There was a sell before.
False bar on top. (False)
CCI is green.
Oscillator 5.35 is bullish.
ATR is 1.39 Bar height is 1.4
so .75*ATR = 1 and 2*ATR = 2.7
Now Bar height (1.4) is between 1 and 2.7
So a buy @38.2 for 39.5 and 41.5 as target.
Only one problem. No False Bar.
$CMC breaking out of a ~7 month base!* Great earnings
* Strong up trend in the long term
* High 3-month relative strength of 1.08 in the Basic Materials sector
* Pays out dividends
* Breaking out of a ~7 month base with higher than average volume
* Broke out earlier but due to current market conditions it did have a slight pull back and now is breaking out once again.
* It did, in the recent months, break out of a multi-year base
Trade Idea:
* You can look to enter at today's closing price.
* If you want a better entry you can look for an opportunity around the $36.33 area
CMC - Infrastructure Bill Fueled Breakout - Industrial SteelNYSE:CMC - this company is in the correct sector to directly benefit from the infrastructure bill. It is forming a Cup basing formation. If the market reacts positively to the news of the Infrastructure Bill getting signed, the vertically integrated steel producer stands to benefit from all of the national construction products that will ensue, especially if the administration keeps its promises about using domestic materials and labor.
Basing Formation: Cup - depth ~22% - duration ~ 14 weeks
Pivot Point: $36
Target: $40
Stop Loss: $32.5
$CMC Bearish Unusual Options Activity$CMC Commercial Metals Company - Bearish Unusual Options Activity
$1M Bearish Short Call - 7,500 May $30.00 calls sold today (53x open interest)
14 month uptrend line broke down earlier this week. 9d ema line held as resistance today.
Near term target: $26-$27 range by end of April
Note: This is NOT investment advice. Educational only.
COMMERCIAL METALS CO Course DailyHey my friends, COMMERCIAL METALS CO is in a fake bearish configuration with a high volume of sales executed and a wicked bear. In TIMEFRAME 1Min we see a bull candle with a shadow of the sellers, it will collapse on its last low point. And return to the high potential increase of a price increase and resume negotiations. Then to recover the lost gains we start on the high which follows afterwards, to see if the buyers are really back. COMMERCIAL METALS CO can break its 4 resistances and tried to close its bearish gap. Then join the bottom of the first retest candle, See the 4H.
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CMC luculy I put the stop soon to the enter levelBig pictrue of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. market looks like it bouncing from ground, fear desapearing, vix is down
Write sometning about your psyhology thinking before trade? that this is very interesting time, aI am more calm than last week
Describe the trade. What you see? price is at supportl level and fibonaci level so it can bounce now
Write why you want to enter the trade in this point? support level very low value of macd and rsi
What have I done well for this trade? enter point accorditn to some rules and thinking
What can I take away to help with later trades? try to consider the macd. the good thing is that you move the stop near the enter point very quickly
$CMC #cupandhandle #chartpattern on daily$CMC Friday's gap up candle completed a C&H pattern on the daily chart
MACD and RSI strong and supportive of the move up
Look to participate on either of : 1) retest and HOLD of the cup breakout line at 18.45 or 2) a breakout AND close above SEP high at 19.13
Measured target from the breakout of the pattern is around 22.21
$CMC Bullish LT Channel$CMC Commercial Metals Company has been in a tight trading range for the last two months. It looks to be approaching a buy point at the lower support line of a long term bullish channel. I see 30%+ upside from this level by year-end possible, so long as the lower support line holds.
(Also of note, it seems like any stock with ticker C_C has done very well this month so it also has that going for it - i.e. $CGC $CRC)
Long term target - $29 by year-end (assumes a solid earnings report end of October)
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
Resistance broken with a gap # 2Same concept but with different company name because I not publish a stock symbol twice. But in this case the gap is visible from a weekly chart
and this is no first time I publish this type of ideas and write the same things, because is the same Resistance breakout + Bullish gap
I share a variety of companies trading at different stocks prices with different PE Ratios in different Industries.
Because different traders have different tastes and budgets or some traders have a different strategies with options,
some swing traders hold positions for 2 weeks and others for 8 weeks or more
the point is that I can put different ideas that suit every trader in particular
For example the past idea that I shared was a stock that is trading above 100.00
for some traders this is expensive, for others not