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Credit Suisse Group AG

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Week Plan: Short Credit Suisse What a hot topic! Credit Suisse has hit the headlines at the start of this week with grand fears that the bank is more illiquid than it would make out to be. Many headlines swirling around the interwebs tonight: Credit Suisse's 5 year CDs jumped as much as 350bps at lunch time today - CDS (Credit Debt Swaps) can be used to index how the market views how risky the bank is. The higher this CD ratio, the more people believe the bank will fail to pay off on its debts, ala a swap of credit ***this may seem like just another nice bullet point, but these levels are higher than what Credit Suisse's CDS traded at during the 2008 financial crisis*** These fears aren't backed by nothingness but more so news that Credit Suisse needs to raise 4 Billion Francs (4 billion USD) of capital in a restructuring effort to keep the company afloat. 2.5 billion in companies owned by Credit Suisse are reported to be readied to be sold but one has to beg the question, with a market cap of 10.31 bn one has to ask where is the money going to come from? This company was nearly 30bn market cap a year ago and has maintained a downward channel from the day scale down Locally, the 15min chart shows stochastic RSI has crossed at overbought territory and is heading downward showing momentum flowing downward as well. Seeing as this is the start of the new week, 3.67 has been established as a new resistance level / support on the path down, but I expect pit stops at 3.79 and a potential retest to 3.88 before it makes a move towards next low for the day These are historic lows for a company that has never seen this level of capitulation ever, not even comparable to its worst points in historical financial crises; capitulation is better than dying on ones' sword to Credit Suisse so expect a move down from a News angle and a Technical Analysis angle. Monday proved that this sell off is resilient to any macro retest upwards so expect it to be flat before a dead drop.
NYSE:CSShort
by Cutter710
1
Credit Suisse The Melancholic FarewellDISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. The function of this essay is the maddening diatribe of a curious author, and how this one manages micro- and macro-economic data for a critical investigation into the micro- and macro-economic world. This text is not suitable for direct consumption, and should never be used as a primary or secondary source. The contents of this text are often illogical and offensive, and great care should be given to the reader's personal qualifications and senses. This text is delivered on TradingView, where the userbase is expected to have a level of financial and investigative understanding that would enable them to query appropriate thoughts and abdicate nonsense to the void. May whatever sovereign and omnipotent being you believe in, guide you through this. Thesis This is a long time coming. Once one of the bastions of global banking, my how the mighty have squandered their name. Credit Suisse was a brilliant strike against French control over financing Swiss railroads, and later the Swiss electrical grid; but what they really gave their nation was financial independence and international providence. Categorical dissection of America's expansion places the financial infrastructure as the cornerstone. China's own attempt at imperialism rests on aggressive lending through the Belt and Road Initiative. As Switzerland's role in international politics grew through the 18th and 19th century, their bank's power and holdings moved right along with it. Credit Suisse's red-headed step-sibling UBS had quite the record of laundering Nazi money post-WW2, while their own crimes featured a more diverse group of global terrorists, autocrats, the usual suspects . The nascent Suisse Secrets, an expose on leaked accountholders at Credit Suisse by the OCCRP, leaves little needed imagination on how far the corruption goes at a bank that has been found guilty 49 times and fined to the tune of $10.2 billion since 2000. Much of that is from a 2017 charge of TOXIC SECURITIES ABUSE at $5.3 billion, and while this is extravagant, Credit Suisse lost $1.7 billion in the Greensill collapse so far, with a potential $9+ billion left to pay BEFORE fines and fees from a 5 year lawsuit. Despite recent events, Credit Suisse isn't their own worst enemy. Switzerland has made it clear to their fledgling banks that continued misbehaviour won't be tolerated, not because the behaviour is unwanted, but because all the other banks are doing it better. Archegos, One who leads the way , but for whom? Bill Hwang didn't play only Credit Suisse, and every major breach of intelligent action they uncovered in their self-appeasing investigation into the errors that led to the momentous collapse could be easily found at every one of their rivals. Deutsche, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi, Goldman Sachs; all implicated heavily in propping up Archegos with tens billions on unsecured security swaps, all with the same collateral. The real golden morsel of Archegos isn't in Credit Suisse's failings as a bank to judiciously investigate potential clients, and ensure appropriate due diligence and holding of collateral assets, as well as allowing their clients to over-leverage on those assets. Credit Suisse was one of the first to figure out Archegos failed. They were the first to try and pull the plug on it. Credit Suisse approached their peer's brokerage units privately in an effort to meet, plan, minimize losses, and ensure everyone gets out okay. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said no. They left Credit Suisse et al in the dust, sold off as many assets as possible - leading to the massive declines in ViacomCBS and Discovery as seen below- and won. A fundamental War principle is that a self-induced loss that leads to a greater loss for the opponent is a win. Goldman Sachs limited it's losses to near null, while Morgan Stanley had the potential for much more pain. In turn, Credit Suisse is now working with the FBI's investigation into Morgan Stanley's block trader, or more aptly, Stock Market Architect . There are only two positive analyst ratings on Credit Suisse: one by the Swiss UBS, the other by Parisian Kepler Cheuvreux. A simple unmasking of Kepler Cheuvreux shows none other than the Swiss Julius Baer. The only positive ratings on the Swiss megabank Credit Suisse are the only two other corrupt and inept Swiss megabanks. This analyst doesn't hold the big firm's ratings as anything more than posturing their own financial position, but the fact that every other major bank and equity research firm has Credit Suisse at a neutral or lower rating paints their relationship with peers well enough. The real problem for Credit Suisse lies in trust. America allows it's megabanks to run wild on crime sprees; JP Morgan is the largest bank in the US, has five criminal felony charges since 2014, 196 criminal charges since 2000. Bank of America is only just below in size, with 264 crimes charged since 2000 and nearly $83 billion in fines. This isn't just American fashion: HSBC has been found guilty of laundering for the drug cartels and Al Qaeda more than once. Deutsche has laundered more for the Oligarchs than any other bank, quite a bit of that into American politicians and businesspeople. Taiwan's World Bank was the laundering operation for the CCP. Credit Suisse's abrogation and dereliction of the rules isn't extraordinary, so much so as expected and desired. Money is the blood of this world, and only through the transfer of money may the full body be found. Banks have a sovereign purpose in maintaining the financial order of this world, even if it means catering and rewarding maligned aspects of it. Credit Suisse elucidates some of their own reasons quite transparently. The number of foreign Spy Chiefs who turned over US-intelligence sought terrorists was evident. A fun speculation would be the probability that the CIA directly uses Credit Suisse for handling financial matters, which would be better done in a Swiss rather than American bank. No, the banks are not in trouble merely because they break laws. They are in trouble when they fail to be able to do so in a useful manner. Investors are being forced to pay big chunks of Credit Suisse's legal and financial issues, primarily because Credit Suisse the bank has failed to make money. Inherent to the business of banking are haircuts, the esoteric name for fees. The bank cares about it's investors wealth because it's long-term growth depends on the growth of this wealth. The banker cares about their own wealth, and selling products for their own percentages. Credit Suisse stood to gain very, very little from Archegos' or Greensill's profit. They got to inflate Assets Under Management on their books, but the bank was loaning tens of billions on fractional credit, a leverage ratio at times of 80:1. Credit Suisse's prime brokerage department built up a lengthy stack of fees for processing and handling Archegos' assets. One might be able to argue that these bankers paid themselves not with Archegos' money, but with Credit Suisse's, and by proxy, their investor's. But whom are those investors? Aside from the known clients from Suisse Secrets, who are less clients and more hostages at this point, turns out it is tens and tens of billions of dollars of Russian money. Credit Suisse will not die because their investors pull their money, simply because they can't. When the big bills start hitting the bank for Greensill's outstanding debts, combined with what ever other schemes the bank is still stealthily embroiled in, the loss of book value from collapse of Russian assets; when Switzerland itself gets asked to bail out Credit Suisse, will they? Switzerland itself requested UBS and Credit Suisse to pursue merger plans to preserve the country's international banking power. Following the summer of 2021, countless news stories were breaking about potential mergers for the flailing bank, some with UBS, some with any number of their comrades. However, Credit Suisse instead pursued the route of independence and focusing on their wealth management arm, as if they had any other. The months that followed were an elegant imitation of Larry, Curly and Moe. Following Archegos and Greensill, it was necessary to shed the C-suite. The brand new CEO was caught and fined twice, once in China and once in England, for breaking COVID quarantine rules. However, these were meetings with Central banks, meetings that necessitated breaking COVID quarantine rules. When the PBOC or Bank of England summons you, you appear. What then would cause a necessity of narrative? António Horta-Osório was removed from his position with quite the severance package, something of jumping off the plane with the golden parachute before it blows up completely unexpectedly. Hardly the only bank struggling with executive turnover, dramatic increase in legal and financial troubles, Credit Suisse manages to do it different. It isn't the economically-illiterate Zoltan Pozsar, who seems to think that commodities have just now popped into existence. It isn't even the yachts that Credit Suisse manages for Russian oligarchs, or that they securitized the yacht loans, sold it to investors, and then asked those investors to destroy the paperwork. Every news headline of some original and fantastical failings in appropriate oversight and risk management by the Credit Suisse team just seems mundane. In the world of magic and wizardry, a spell is just a spell. Like a comedy routine, it's jokes the whole way through. In a way, it will be sad to see Credit Suisse go, like a familiar face at the bar, the drunk who just couldn't quit. The end of the story for Credit Suisse is book value. Not their book, but definitely a book. When Lehman fell, what was their book value? Bear Stearns was eaten by JP Morgan without so much as a cent to the stock or bond holders. Even now, many would rather those names be forgotten and left in the history book. This analyst holds the position that Credit Suisse went independent because there were no mergers or acquisitions. Credit Suisse isn't just in the red, they're gushing red, and everything they have left is decay. The question isn't what will be the death knell, rather who will come to the funeral . What would they say? This was a long time coming. Financial Disclaimer This analyst might and will have a financial position on Credit Suisse in either direction. Their price has behaved quite cleanly in the macro-trends of the chart. Don't use my stupid thesis to make financial decisions, read the news headlines, read over the SEC filings. Get TradingView to allow me to insert pictures and I will be able to show notes on the financial documents, a little basic forensic accounting if you will. Thanks for reading. Quick author's abbreviated note on how China's Belt and Road Initiative worked in Sri Lanka: BRI approaches Sri Lankan government officials with a plan to loan a massive amount of money to build a second major port in the country, something the country did not need, but Sri Lanka was explained to by very fancy economists how building the second port would increase investments in manufacturing for Sri Lanka dramatically. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka's own politics are in a real twist - the essential part is the President was taking massive amounts of bribes from just about anyone willing to bribe him. China lubricated the deal by offering the President money and help for a close political ally. The port got built, it was a complete failure, Sri Lanka could not pay, the corrupt president got kicked out but populism being what it is, came back. Now Sri Lanka is suffering under a massive amount of debt to Chinese banks while the government has essentially forced the people to deal with brutal inflationary impulses caused by a mix of chronic policy errors and sheer corruption. This scenario has destabilized Sri Lanka as protests against the failures of the government continue without concern alleviation. In an ideal situation, Sri Lanka would continue to destabilize as a bad government policy forcing farmers to go without fertilizer has led to a drastic food shortage, gas and oil prices raise dramatically without the ability for Western-style government subsidies. The Sri Lankan president will be forced to make bad deals to stay in power, and if he refuses, the next President will. China can abuse these destabilizations to allow Chinese companies to enter the country at a much better leverage. With China's own growth at risk with COVID-Zero policies leading to long lockdowns and perturbations of manufacturing, combined with a serious issue in the property market, future moves to offer Sri Lanka a lifeline could be in question. China's ability to promote bad government policies in Sri Lanka, combined with a massive increase in debt for useless growth has crushed the country. This general style is common throughout history and detailed with many individualistic flairs across the diaries of warlords, kings, conquerors, emperors, dictators, presidents, prime ministers, and chairmen. References I apologize for some of these references. All authors have bias, even Biochemistry articles. All sources given serve as good starter articles to get a good basis for the situation. Focus on factual events, historical actions that have a clear paper trail. www.occrp.org violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org www.reuters.com www.cfr.org foreignpolicy.com www.credit-suisse.com www.bloomberg.com www.swissinfo.ch www.bloomberg.com www.marketwatch.com violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org www.reuters.com www.cnbc.com
NYSE:CSShort
by DoctorFaustus
8
Dip BuyCredit Suisse is one of the most credible investment banks with various arms of business that has given them a phenomenal balance sheet. The recent Archegos implosion may put some clients on edge and although the bank has had to sell some hefty positions, it is expected that such a strong company will return. RSI has reset and bounced showing a reversal may be imminent. The stock should follow as buyers step in to buy the dip. Long over 10.4, Short under, PT back to fair value at $21, phenomenal risk return.
NYSE:CS
by Samirp01
Credit Suisse Mission: The Credit Suisse Group purpose is at the core of everything we do. It underpins the value we create and has powered our progress for more than 160 years. It captures the essence of 'why' we exist as an organization. It motivates us when we come to work every day and serves as our North Star when we make decisions. Ultimately, it serves to define who we are and what we should be doing for our employees, clients and stakeholders. A revised code of conduct aligned to our new cultural values is available here: credit-suisse.com/codeofconduct Our strategy builds on Credit Suisse's core strengths: our position as a leading wealth manager with strong global investment banking capabilities and our strong presence in our home market of Switzerland. We seek to follow a balanced approach to wealth management, aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. We serve our clients through three regionally focused divisions: Swiss Universal Bank, International Wealth Management and Asia Pacific. These regional businesses are supported by an integrated global Investment Bank. What do you think? Like, follow, agree, disagree!
NYSE:CSLong
by Redimere_91
In a weakened banking sector, Credit Suisse stands outI've just finished reading through Moody's analysis of Friday's Fed stress test of banks. Honestly, a lot of it was over my head. However, from what I can tell, it looks like Credit Suisse may be the best positioned of the big banks to weather this crisis. In the Fed models, CS survived with more Tier 1 capital than any other bank, beating most of them by a wide margin. CS also has little exposure to loan losses. Here's the link to the Moody's report: www.moodys.com CS looks attractively priced at 8.53 forward P/E and 0.6 PEG. Its Starmine Equity Summary Score is 9.9/10, meaning that analysts widely regard the stock as a "buy." I'm generally bearish on banks as we head into the July earnings season, but it looks like this may be a gem in the rough, a quality company that's been unduly punished along with the rest of the sector.
NYSE:CSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith