CVNA trade ideas
Has Carvana Run Out of SteamCarvana ( cvna ) has been in a rally since mid-May and recently Carvana beat earnings by over 160%.
Shareholders who have been riding this profitable rally have raked in over 59% in unrealized gains. These same shareholders should now start to wonder if it's time to take some of that profit.
For online used car dealer Carvana, acquiring vehicles is less of a problem, said CEO Ernie Garcia, but the company faces a different kind of supply constraint.
Garcia said, "Over the last several quarters we've actually bought more cars from our customers than we've sold them. But we don't have the capacity today to certify as many of the cars as we could buy and we have more demand than we can handle as well."
The question savvy investors are asking is this. Has business for Carvana reached a ceiling for now, and therefore, has its stock price also reached the same point?
The stock price fell into a range of $328/support and $340/resistance for about two weeks before earnings. Then, after beating earnings, the stock price had a burst of momentum.
Now, the stock price, volume, and RSI have all turned lower while the economy is shifting and FUD enters the market.
So the question to ask must be; has Carvana's stock run out of steam for the next few months?
CVNA needs correctionsThe price is very extended. There are two rising wedge patterns on the daily time-frame. A correction is probable.
CVNA waiting for clear breakout9 Month-long ascending triangle
Steady Uptrend
Volume is on lower side, want to see a high volume breakout
CVNA is running out of Covid Fuel - Short-Looks as though CVNA has exited its channel up and has now turned into a down trend. Covid has made this one way over valued, no doubt CVNA will they have a good showing come earnings but I think this one has ran out of the Covid fuel its been using to get to these levels. CEO's dad, Majority Shareholder and convicted felon has been selling shares left and right through all this getting rich on a company that is not profitable and way over valued. I see CVNA dipping to the low to mid $260's before earnings, a earnings beat with a
small 6-8% pop to move it close to the top of the new downtrend channel but after that there's is no stopping this high flyer from dropping back under $200! Get your $horts ready boys, its about to be $ummer time!
- This is not investment advice, its only my novice opinion and if you follow this without doing your own research you are in fact a degenerate.
$CVNA noob trend analysisLooking at the daily chart here and how the price moves in relation to previous earnings and subsequent trends created.
Observations:
1) Begin looking around earnings Aug 2020, after trading between trendlines since covid plummet in March. Beats estimates by 24% in Aug earnings and we see massive (28%) single day jump on the following day, followed by a subsequent 14% pullback the following day.
2) CVNA trades in between trendlines at a much softer angle until earnings on Oct 2020, where they beat 64%. This triggered selloffs on the three days around earnings followed by (I believe) a bull hammer at the bottom indicating a reversal into another sequence of trading between sharper positive trendlines. Gains about 60% over 43 days.
3) Seeing a triangle pattern. In true coinflip earnings fashion, price jumps out of the downward upper trendline after missing earnings -77%. Other than that this channel has continued consolidating slightly downward.
Analysis/Plays:
1) The YOLO Earnings play: Expecting an upward swing to break out of this channel like we saw with the previous earnings. This will also depend on how the big boys earnings look the previous week (4/26-4/30). Recommending what george would with a call spread for the short term. EDIT: Could see a run up into earnings at test previous resistance of 300 around the date. If you look at the hourly on last Friday we had some strong momentum on the buy side into close. This could be a precursor of the earnings run-up or some channel noise and will largely be affected by FAANG earnings next week.
2) Following that I'd expect an eventual breakout to the downside. If my analysis of the pattern is correct and we are in a triangle we could see a breakout to the downside and test previous RR support. This eventual downtrend is supported by overvaluation of the company in relation to revenues as well as consistent and increasingly frequent insider selling: https://tinyurl.c om/3xeuy3kw. EOY puts could be the play to the downside.
Buying time? Monthly chart still sky high - 3 lower supportsCVNA, like many other stocks that sold off last week, looks like a good buying opportunity on the daily chart. Switch to the monthly and you see the 10ema - the 10, not even the 20! - is still down around 220. That just goes to show how fast stocks shot up and how far they moved away from the averages.
Option volumes are slim to none on this stock but if the price moves then the return is still excellent. So while the bid/ask spread is terribly large, if stock price moves enough your option will gain plenty of value that you can sell your put on the lower end of the spread and still have a great return. Here you can see the red daily trendline has also been broken.
On the daily chart, RSI is below 50. I like to use the hourly charts during big moves to help clarify trends and levels. I do not yet see bullish divergence on the 60m chart. Price could turn lower from this 260 area, holding 10ema as resistance, or it could move up to 20sma before pulling back. I am watching for RSI to stay under 50 and for price to get under 258.
Be choosy about your entry, for example on a test of the 20sma, or after a trigger on your lower timeframe chart, and use small position size so you can trade comfortably (without worry).
CVNA PT: $340Clean bounce of the support as you see on the chart, I see this running back up to support within 1-2 months to $340.
Consider trimming some position around support.
Watchlist: Will the ER hold ?I like the channel. It's simple and beautiful set up if it wasn't so RED these days!
Short squeeze mini series # 20What Is a Short Squeeze?
A short squeeze occurs when a stock or other
asset jumps sharply higher, forcing traders who
had bet that its price would fall, to buy it in
order to forestall even greater losses. Their
scramble to buy only adds to the upward
pressure on the stock's price
KEY TAKEAWAYS
*A short squeeze accelerates a stock's price rise
as short-sellers bail out to cut their losses.
*Contrarian investors try to anticipate a short
squeeze and buy stocks that demonstrate a
strong short interest.
*Both short-sellers and contrarians are making
risky moves. A wise investor has additional
reasons for shorting or buying that stock.
Long CVNA short NIOThis is my first idea.
NIO is overprice and the whole tech sector (and especially the EV sector) is in a bubble, so I would like to short NIO.
On the other hand, what if this bubble will last many more months?
So let's long CVNA (that should be able to sell used Tesla or any other EV car as well and will do well even if the whole market shifts to only EVs).
From the TA point of view, we are in accumulation after braking the trend.
Tell me what do you think.
This idea is for entertament purposes only. Do your owen research.
CVNA I spotted this stock, and It has nice looking entry point. I would take long position here and see how this gonna play out.
CarvanaTechnical indicators such as MacD and RSI shows a renewed potentiel to break the trend patterns - and continue up-wards
$CVNAEntry price : 260.98
Fundamentals :
- Sector: Retail - Autos
- EPS % Chg (Last Qtr): 83%
- EPS % Chg (Previous Qtr): -41%%
- 3 Year EPS Growth Rate: 0%
- EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr): 0%
- Sales % Chg (Last Qtr): 41%
- Sales % Chg (Previous Qtr): 13%
- 3-Year Sales Growth Rate: 96%
- Annual Pre -Tax Margin: -9.3%
CVNA wish me luck!!! New position at the play high zone...I got the position today at the play high zone.
Hope to keep flying high.
I like the concept of buying and selling cars.
Any thoughts?
CVNA, Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend on December 15, 2020.Over the last three days, Tickeron's A.I.dvisor has detected that CVNA's AroonUp green line (see chart) is above 70, while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the green line goes above 70 while the red line stays below 30, this is an indicator that the stock could be poised for a strong Uptrend. For traders, this could mean going long the stock or exploring call options in the next month. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor backtested this indicator and found 242 similar cases, 210 of which were successful. Based on this data, the odds of success are 87%. Current price $253.32 is above $227.36 the highest resistance line found by Tickeron A.I. Throughout the month of 11/12/20 - 12/15/20, the price experienced a +19% Uptrend, while the week of 12/08/20 - 12/15/20 shows a -2% Downtrend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 11, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVNA as a result. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 45 of 51 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVNA just turned positive on November 11, 2020. Looking at past instances where CVNA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron A.I. shows that in 26 of 29 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CVNA moved above its 50-day Moving Average on November 11, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day Moving Average for CVNA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 16, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 9 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +7.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVNA advanced for three days, in 224 of 249 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 210 of 242 cases where CVNA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 87%.
CVNA, Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend on December 08, 2020.Over the last three days, A.I.dvisor has detected that CVNA's AroonUp green line (see chart) is above 70, while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the green line goes above 70 while the red line stays below 30, this is an indicator that the stock could be poised for a strong Uptrend. For traders, this could mean going long the stock or exploring call options in the next month. A.I.dvisor backtested this indicator and found 242 similar cases, 210 of which were successful. Based on this data, the odds of success are 87%. Current price $260.38 is above $227.36 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 11/05/20 - 12/08/20, the price experienced a +28% Uptrend. During the week of 12/01/20 - 12/08/20, the stock enjoyed a +4% Uptrend growth.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 11, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CVNA as a result. In 44 of 51 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVNA just turned positive on November 11, 2020. Looking at past instances where CVNA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 29 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CVNA moved above its 50-day Moving Average on November 11, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVNA advanced for three days, in 224 of 249 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
CVNA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 210 of 242 cases where CVNA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 87%.
