DOW TRANSPORTATION JUST STARTING DOWNThe chart posted is that of the DJT . As everyone is focused on the qqq and sp 500 and the flight to safety in tech DO NOT ASK ME WHY BTW . The markets are now in the HOPE stage. This is usually followed by Fear and then Despair . and then the last stage Denial . that is the BOTTOM
DMT trade ideas
#DOWTHEORY transports failing to confirm new highs in industrialIf you believe in Dow Theory then the fact that transports have not been able to make a new high compared to the August Swing highs, should make you doubt the new highs seen in the industrials. Normally this is a sign of underlying weakness so the expectation would be for further weakness to come in general equities.
Dow Jones Transport daily frame (leading diagonal target 11,750)this count gives the possibility that the leading diagonal hasn't completed unless 13,453 price level is broken and the final fifth wave of this subwave will near 11,750
the throwover in the fourth position would equal a price break of the parallel trendline or a possible bottoming out in the midline of that same parallel trendline
DJT Is BullishDJT, a leading economic indicator, is breaking out of a long falling wedge pattern that targets the all-time high daily candle body closes. This is yet another piece of the puzzle suggesting a much better second half for this year. Bollinger bands squeezing so tight and multi-month divergences are also indicating that it won't be a small move.
DJT,a leading economic indicator,again topping out bef SPX w H&SSomething is wrong! NOWHERE to hide except cash. Even XLP staples crash last week.
Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone.
It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located.
If 14k is not reclaimed next few days, I think DJT may be making a 5 waves further down to 12300 where the black VWAP from the pandemic low will intersect. After that it will make a counter trend wave 4 rally back to retest 14k (wave 4 should not cross wave 1) before the final wave 5 dump to my yellow 11k to 10300 zone.
Last time DJT topped-out on 17Sept2018, 16 months before SPX’s peak on 13Jan2020. This time DJT peaked on 2Nov2021. This scenario suggest that recession is already underway & we just dont see it yet, especially if SPX gets rejected again at 4100/4200 again after this week’s expected oversold rally & breaks below 3800. Worst scenario may see SPX further down at 3520 or even 3200.
This time may be different coz we are in uncharted territory with so many headwinds like rising inflation, FED doing whatever it takes to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the invasion & the energy & food crisis it created & also the China lockdown. This time there will be no stimulus & no FED saving the stock market.
Not trading advice. Minimize risks & trade with CAUTION!
Transports Break SupportTransportation stocks have been unusually strong this year, but that might have changed yesterday.
The main feature on this chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average is the September low at 13,947. Prices managed to remain above this level throughout the market’s correction as other indexes like the S&P 500 and Nadaq-100 knifed below the same respective points on their charts. DJT lost that distinction yesterday as it suffered its biggest drop in almost two years.
Second, the index broke out above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in mid-March as the broader market rebounded. But then it reversed and made lower highs at both SMAs in April and May.
Third, that price action dragged the 50-day SMA below the 200-day, resulting in a potentially bearish “death cross.”
Given the importance of “Dow Theory,” which uses Transports to judge moves in the broader market, yesterday’s price action could have bigger implications for sentiment. Traders may now view it as confirmation of a bearish trend.
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DJT:bellwether for stocks & economy just sliced thru 14k supportThis is bad! Stocks are falling even when DXY dollar index & TNX 10-yr yield are retracing.
The Dow Jones Transportation, a leading indicator for the stock mkt & the economy, just
zipped through the 14k key support, down 7.41%. All stock indices had a capitulation-like move Wednesday 18May, the worst since the pandemic days. Even defensive staples, household retailers like Target & Walmart fell.
DTJ has fallen into my green support zone. It may fall further it does not recover 14k soon.
Not trading advice
DJT @ 3rd green wk. WHY it may be making abc zigzag downAlthough transportation looks bullish now with 2 green weekly close after a big plunger, I still think this is just the b counter wave & there is one more c wave down to my green zone. There are still overhead resistances at various VWAPs.
Transports, like IWM small caps, is a very impt leading indicator of our economy. With oil cost rebounding & labor difficulty adding to a slowing economy due to supply chain crisis,, things just dont turn around in a flash although medium & longterm is still bullish.
Transports usually peaks out way way ahead of SPX. With transports seem recovering, I think SPX will still make a new high in 2022.
Not trading advice