Big Market Update | WEEKLY | DJ | IWM | TLT | DJT Be aware this is a longterm idea for the whole markets. Nothing is granted in this game. Don't follow this idea blindly. This is just to keep you aware of possibilities, not to tell you what to do.
For me things are lining up very well.
* Don't just look at SPY and QQQ other markets doesn't look that strong right now.
Alright. Four Charts. Weekly charts.
From left to right:
1. DJ | Dow Jones Industrial
2. IWM | Midcaps
3. TLT | Bonds
4. DJT | Transporation index
The Bonds are currently holding very well within what looks like a weekly bull flag.
Stronger Bonds are usually an indicator that bigger money is flowing into .. bonds and flowing out of .. stocks. It's basically the idea to have save heaven for the bigger moneys.
The bonds are currently diverging higher on the indicators, wheras the other markets are all posting something that could turn out to be head and shoulders patterns while all of them are divering lower.
Just a reminder. Today is the possible brexit or not day. I don't believe they will vote FOR the harsh brexit today. I think the brexit will be postponed to a date 2 years later or similar. But still the end of today will lead to alot of confusion.
Also remember that tomorrow Futures and options are expiring.
// trade carefully.
GL.
DMT trade ideas
Dow Transportion Average Deflationary Bearish Divergence !Dow Theory principal of market analysis rests on the premise
that the Industrial Average,Transportation Average, and Utility Average
should all be in gear together in a confirming signal of unison
about both the markets and the economy's state of health.
If one index diverges from the others, and it persists for a while, it is a notable warning sign that something is amiss.
Last night, Federal Express, one of the largest worldwide shippers, and key stock in the Transportation Average
revealed in their earnings release that the world's economy is markedly slowing down in 2019
Is anyone paying attention to what they said ?
I mean you really don't even have to read tea leaves to get it.
The Dow Transportation Average made it's high in Sept 2018, prior to the Industrial Average peak
and right now is giving striking bearish divergences about the health of the "real economy" in the United States
Also note that the Dow Utility Average, the 2nd of the Dow Trioka Averages
is also giving confirming signals of a real slowdown in the economy, and in the rise in short and long term interst rates,
Sooner or later, the overall stock market here in the US
will finally come to the realization that things are not quite as rosy as they seem .
That includes the Dow Industrial's, S+P 500, and bubbly Nasdaq market.
When they begin to sell off, investors will be looking for reasons.
My own advise is that you start paying attention
to what the Dow Transportation Average is telling you every day.
There is a real ,and marked slowdown going on in the US economy right now.
And soon, with 1rst Quarter Earnings due in April, other market leading companies will soon confirm the same news.
Dow Transportation Average Chart
paints a much more bearish scenario than the Industrial's ..doesn't it ?
Do not ignore that divergence.
Major Sell Signal Pending on Close Below DJT 10116.86
DJT Last 10277.32
THE_UNWIND
3/20/19
Mountains?New York
DJT: Batten the Hatches, Prepare to DiveI've been watching the DJT over the last couple of weeks because it's kept a very tight price pattern and has suffered from little consolidation whipsaw. It's a good leading indicator over the SPX and DJI, and showed the current broad market reversal a week before the other two.
Friday's upward action is likely a short squeeze from the bears closing their positions before the weekend. Monday may have a minor rally, but the news headlines have sure read with a strong negative sentiment to me, and I anticipate a minefield of bull traps laying in wait for anyone sticking their neck out without a strong hypothesis on an individual security moving against the market. Gold stocks are back up, pot stocks seem to be heating up more as a possible source of alpha for risk takers, and this week is going to be light on earnings news until after mid-week, too.
I expect this current cycle to run for at least another week or three only to see some overall bullish activity again by late March or early April. If you seek out long positions in individual equities, ensure that you have a sound hypothesis for profit or else you will find yourself recklessly running right into a bull trap.
[DJ-T] UPTREND COMPLETED?Hello Traders!
One of indicators to measure the US economy (and therefore SPX) still remains the transport index, and as shown on the chart, this indicator may have completed the upward movement (or almost). That said, in the coming weeks we will continue to monitor the support, and if it is broken, it is possible to develop an interesting bearish leg.
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Thank you for support and trade with care!
Dow Transports Ready for a Bounce$DJT is down 22% from its peak and is coming into long term support - 200 week MA and the top of a previous rally at about 9000. Also the RSI has shown support at these levels in past corrections as shown. The speed and severity of the correction while the economy is still in good shape, though cooling off a little, suggests a nice bounce is coming.
DJT - short- Weekly RED doji (the only one from all major indexes)
- Airlines are dropping from the sky in Europe and India and soon in North America (? or am i going too fast ?)
- Truckers are not feeling amazing either
Where rubber meets the road is the true financial struggle and THE REAL CUSTOMER SENTIMENT MATERIALIZED.
Keep an eye on this stocks... airlines, (air)freight, truckers, maritime ... they do not feel great and eventually will drag everybody down in speed.
Further more... if you know an airline which made your day trip unpleasant... uhm... now might be the time to pick on it :-()
Enjoy. Cautiously.
Dow Jones Theory This chart shows the DJT and the DJI. The transportation index has historically led the industrials. I expect the industrials to follow transportations on its way down in the coming months. End of the year rally could support the industrials, however; going into 2019, barring any big news on the trade issues, I see the US markets falling significantly.
Transports Fall -10% In One Week? ... :oNot a whole lot else to say other than that.
Transports are the brother of Small Caps in my opinion as far as leading the rest of the market.
Just want to point this out because it's a canary in the coal mine and easily missed.
1 Wk % Change:
SPY: -4.55%
NDX: -4.92%
DIA: -4.44%
IWM: -5.52% (Leading)
DJT: -10.14%......?
Playing with dow theory; short DJI* Transports turning back toward primary trend
* Industrials not following yet
* Volume seems weak to me, doesn't confirm anything. Implies weakness of trend?
Based on this I would conclude, despite the volume issue:
* DJI correction due in a matter of a week or two amounting to a total of ~4%, following the transports down
* DJT correction to continue ultimately amounting to a total of ~5%
I don't have any real confidence in dow theory at the moment, just playing with the idea. Looking forward to pushing the play button on this later.
One of DJI's Confirmations Not Looking Good - DJTAs is suggested by the heading even though we're seeing a rebound of DJI's rally one of it's confirming indicators is showing weakness. For the most part we use the Dow Jones Index as loose indicator of the overall economy, when it's performing well, on it's face, we discern that the economy is humming along well. As a confirmation for the thought process we use the Dow Transports Index, among others, and discern from if the rally is real or not. The reasoning being, as an index that follows the biggest transporting companies within the economy, it's reasonable to think if transports are performing well then commerce within the economy must be doing well. So, when DJI is rallying and it's confirmed by the DJT, along with other factors, we can discern that the economy is performing well. I'll move onto the analysis, to explain how the index is tracking.
Weekly
1. Noticed that there's been high volume in the last two years of trading relative to long-term trend, 200-moving average.
2. It's been trading in a channel YTD which is confirmed by relatively accurate tracing stochastic indicator.
Daily
1. Within the YTD channel, there's an interior resistance that's quite robust. That's where we find the index, today-July 25, 2018, and as with the other reactions from that interior resistance it's retracing back to the bottom of the channel.
2. The Stochastic indicator is tracing accurately with the index, which is on tracing downwards confirming the hypothesis.
Conclusion: The Dow Jones Index has been on an upwards trend but one of the confirming indicators is showing that that might be a faux-upswing. In terms of the overall economy, we're starting to see that the market starting to be affect by the tariffs and the trade war.
SPY vs. DJTIt seems that the DJT wants to take us to some lower point and maybe finish its correction.
The QQQ lean higher and so the SPY.
When we look closely to the SPY and the DJT we can see that we lean higher and every weakness in the market is being bought. The key point is where? the answer by looking at the chart is the 40MA (weekly).
So i think that the miss correlation that we see now between the DJT and the SPY will be finish and the for the short term i think the SPY will join the DJT.
The key levels to watch in the SPY are 2781-2764-2749-2725-2700-2681 - those are the square of 9 of Gann's numbers.
To the upside i think 2825-2836 will be a reversal points for the market - for the short term.
Watch your capital.
GREEN IS GREEN!
A Quick Look At Indicators - Dow Jones Transportation Average IWM and DJT are my two favorite Leading market indicators.
Indicator is the RSI. 2 Hour chart makes it a relatively significant development.
If price increases dramatically it will invalidate the divergence. But the longer it exists, the more likely it will take hold. (Kind of like my bad golfing habits)