Correction to ELF chart I postedThis is the correction to the elf chart I posted, this was a profitable trade for me. I forgot to draw the lines regarding the post-market level which lines up with Jan-March 2023 consolidation.
ELF trade ideas
Elf gap swingElf dumped on earnings tonight and I have been watching the company for a while. This seems overblown and looks to have formed a macro triple bottom. My setup here was aftermarket spot entry.
My plan:
Depending on how fast this pivots the PT1= 98$
PT2=108$
Elf - not looking prettyA breakdown of the neckline confirmed the head & shoulders pattern on this stock. Elf Beauty is not looking very pretty here post earnings. My short was activated at loss of support at $97.94. There is a potential support at $63.88. If we get a bounce here, I may close 50% of my position. I expect the final target of $43 to be reached at some point. The RSI is heading down, I also expect a complete reset.
The Grand Supercycle has peaked with a classic double top and head and shoulders pattern. Be careful buying the dip if you believe in this company, this is a powerful downtrend. We also shorted Celsius using similar TA.
Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
2/7/25 - $elf - I bought $66 AH, BUT... nuanced2/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:ELF
I bought $66 AH, BUT... nuanced
- this will become a name i follow/ comment on a A LOT more in the coming year
- sub 20x PE is already "value", but it's not "obvious"
- it's not obvious for the simple reason that we don't have a resolution on growth trends until we see more scanner data and another quarter
- while new launches (product, doors e.g. Wmt, DG and geos) should bode well for a brand that is gaining share - and honestly - share gains are more important than category softness... we need more data
- in this tape, unfortunately, this type of reaction is "justified" as silly as it looks
- if you zoom out, the mgns remind me of HQ software, and it's not unreasonable to say put 5x on 1.5 bn of fwd year sales and get to 7.5 bn EV which puts this stock at closer to $135 in a 12-18 mo time frame.
- given stock is at mid 60s, that's nearly a 2x, even risk adjusted
- MIND THE GAP in the low 60s, given the first one (in the mid 80s) filled - see the gray horizontal bars on this chart.
TL;DR... downside likely 15-20% (and probably market-related in the short-term just "fine") and upside probably also 10-25%... so BALANCED. but all else equal, the upside is much more (and possibly has the ability to compound). so the stock *is* a buy here, but it needs to be risk adjusted and ST expectations tempered. I'm at 2% and will park here. as you know i've been stacking high cash (40% of book as of last night), and this is a good parking spot. i won't be trading this one around, just adding each 5% lower.
V
At long-term support.After earnings on Feb. 6th, the stock has plummeted to the long-term support. This trendline needs to hold because the next support is at the yellow S/R pivot (long way down).
Decent technical spot to enter a long on ELF cosmeticsLooks like a decent spot to go long here with a tight stop.
Enter $85
Stop Loss $74
TP1 $124
TP2 $169
Pros
RSI Oversold
Bollinger Band Oversold
Fibonacci Golden Pocket means good spot for reversal
200 week moving average can act as support
Cons
Tariffs
Large Head & Shoulders pattern with neckline broken
Unknowns
Earnings on Thursday 2/6
ELF 3d Chart, Q1 2025 Publishing the NYSE:ELF chart to keep an eye on the multi-year head and shoulders that is currently playing out at the neckline.
If this plays out, there's a chance this reaches the bottom red-zone, with a price of 57.50
$ELF - Right shoulder almost completeNYSE:ELF Well, the right shoulder is almost complete. Whether or not the neckline holds depends on ER this Wednesday. 🙏
11/11/2024 - Here is a new BUY breakout chosen mechanically11/11/2024 - Here is a new BUY breakout chosen mechanically:
Stop Loss @ $101.51
Entry BUY @ $134.15 or more
Target Profit @ $172.59
ELF - Bullish Cross of the 50 SMA / 100 SMAELF sells quality cosmetics for less than the better known brands. I've ask a few women about ELF brand and they seem to love this company. I'm just a guy, but when I hear this kind of enthusiasm for a company I never heard, I had to check it out.
The chart looks compelling and has given us a buy signal on Jan 7th. They beat estimates last quarter and I believe they are going to do that again on 2/5.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan and cruelty free cosmetics and skin care products. The company focuses on the e-commerce, national retailers and international business channels. Its brands include elf, elf skin, WELL People and KEYS soulcare. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
This is not investment advice, I'm just a village idiot that likes to think out loud.
Beautiful Gainse.l.f. Beauty is showing strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $109.00 level. A breakout above the $147.33 daily resistance would confirm continued strength, positioning the stock to target the $218.94 resistance level. This trade offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, with downside risk managed via a stop-loss at $107.14.
As a leader in affordable, high-quality beauty products, e.l.f. has positioned itself as a go-to brand for value-conscious consumers. The company’s focus on innovation, digital marketing, and expanding its product line has driven consistent growth and strong financial performance. With increasing consumer demand for accessible beauty solutions and its ability to capture market share, e.l.f. Beauty is well-poised for long-term upside.
This combination of technical momentum and robust market fundamentals supports a bullish push toward $218.94, making ELF a compelling opportunity for traders and investors alike.
NYSE:ELF
$ELF ON SALE!? Clearance Tags!?Weekly market analysis suggests a positive trend:
The current weekly price of $14 is below the average trading price, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, the 4-hour Stochastic Oscillator is showing an increase in bullish momentum. This could be a sign of a reversal in the market, making it a good time to consider a bullish outlook.
Would you agree with this assessment or do you have a different take on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
$ELF ON SALE!? Clearance Tags!?Weekly market analysis suggests a positive trend:
The current weekly price of $14* is below the average trading price, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, the 4-hour Stochastic Oscillator is showing an increase in bullish momentum. This could be a sign of a reversal in the market, making it a good time to consider a bullish outlook.
Would you agree with this assessment or do you have a different take on the market? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
ELF- H&S and double top - bearishDisclaimer - not a call to action or investment advice, just my analysis on the stock.
I don't hold any position as of the moment of publishing this.
Stock has double top and formed a H&S pattern. Bearish move down from here. All deets are on the chart.
ELF Swing ideaThe chart looks amazing.
We must break above 150 in order to price start moving back to highs,
Great R:R if we break above resistance.
Keeping an eye on it
$ELF Trade Setup & Fundamentals: $150+ TargetsGreetings Everyone ,
I wanted to highlight NYSE:ELF , which has been on my radar for over three months.
Sector Insight:
The Consumer Discretionary sector, including e.l.f. Beauty, has shown unique market resilience. Despite sell-offs in leading stocks, the sector itself has held strong, even gaining ground. This suggests that while individual names saw profit-taking, capital may still be active within the sector. It raises the question: What are institutional investors targeting here? 🤔
e.l.f. Beauty ( NYSE:ELF ) Fundamentals:
Q2 Fiscal 2025 Performance: Net sales jumped 40% YoY to $301.1 million, driven by retail and e-commerce growth.
Market Share Growth: U.S. market share rose by 195 basis points, marking 23 consecutive quarters of sales growth and share gains.
Profitability: Gross margin hit 71%, reflecting cost efficiencies, currency benefits, and price adjustments abroad.
Outlook Raised: Full-year net sales growth is now expected to be 28-30%, with EPS projected at $3.47 to $3.53, signaling sustained confidence.
Levels & Technicals :
Correction Zone: Began at the $220 level.
Major Price Levels: Horizontal Rays at $114, $143, $153, $220.
Gaps: Present at $120 and $159 levels.
Volume: Breakout volume hit 9.45 million compared to a typical 2-3.5 million during range-bound moves.
Trade Idea : ♟️
Gap & Go Strategy: Look to fill gaps, then break higher.
Price Targets 🎯
$152
$170
Next Steps 💡
Check out Lululemon (Canadian-based) for similar strength in the same sector. Let’s collaborate on chart insights! 📈
DYOR! NFA!
$ELF beauty weekly bullish momentum NYSE:ELF beauty weekly bullish momentum.
As you you can see the b-xtrender is turning green, which indicate buyer is stepping in.
We may potential see the price move up to $151 ~ $168 in the coming weeks and months
Not financial advice
$ELF - Update: Potential C&H base breakoutNYSE:ELF just completed a potential cup and handle base with a measured move of $163.
Let's hope it plays out. 🙏
It is safe to say that Muddy Waters' Carson Block's short did not work out. 🚀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
That Break of the wedge and retest! The break and retest is key for continuation. elf heading to 142, not financial advice
IS ELF BEAUTY FINALLY BOTTOMING OUT?! LET'S SEE!NYSE:ELF is at a key S/R zone and has shown buyers will step in well before this thing try's to dip under $100! That's great news as that gives us a great risk/reward ratio area!
MACD, RSI, and the Stochastic are all starting to curl upward off the bottom, indicating the start of a bottoming reversal. My trade setup and execution details are below. Not Financial Advice.
Entry: $118 Break
PT1: $152
PT2: $175
Final PT: $220
S/L: Break below $100 at $97.72.
ELF stock HLStocks highlights: Elf Beauty (ELF)
Intrinsic value(DCF, operating CF) : 146USD
TA: Base formed and a strong up break post earnings and very strong growth stock with 40%+ revenue growth
rec to put max 10% into portfolio
AI Earnings report summary:
Based on the financial report, the key growth drivers for e.l.f. Beauty are:
1. Consistent category-leading growth: The company has delivered 40% net sales growth in Q2, fueled by 195 basis points of market share gains in the U.S. and 91% net sales growth internationally.
2. Strength in both retailer and e-commerce channels: The company has seen strength in both its retailer and e-commerce channels, driving growth in net sales.
3. International expansion: The company has seen significant growth in international markets, with 91% net sales growth in Q2.
The area of concern is:
1. Increased SG&A expenses: The company's SG&A expenses increased by $74.0 million to $186.1 million, or 62% of net sales, primarily due to an increase in marketing and digital spend, compensation, and other expenses. This increase may put pressure on the company's profitability.
ELFmust hold 108.5
an upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
$ELF - Waking up.NYSE:ELF is waking up. It is currently up against the channel's trendline resistance. A breakout from that channel could send the stock to the $150 area.
Between ELF and EL, which one would you bet on?
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
