ELFmust hold 108.5
an upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
ELF trade ideas
$ELF - Waking up.NYSE:ELF is waking up. It is currently up against the channel's trendline resistance. A breakout from that channel could send the stock to the $150 area.
Between ELF and EL, which one would you bet on?
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
10/7/24 - $elf - Too cheap to ignore ~$102. Buy.10/7/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ELF
Too cheap to ignore ~$102. Buy.
- low 20s PE for mid 20s growth
- AI will disrupt many categories, but makeup...?
- cash generative. low (2% FCF) yield not "great" but growth is hard to ignore. also the price focused niche is great for the current environment.
- solid brand
- need to evaluate leadership (anyone have a view?) I'll revert here.
- starting with a 1% position. think it could be a 2-3% position if/as we get into the 90s and even 80s (if/as)
- mind the gaps in the chart from the 2023 period (flagged in grey)
be safe out there.
V
ELF stock is a buy nowE.l.f. Beauty stock has dropped 21% this year and is down 48% from its record high of $218 in June. Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the company's growth.
TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen lowered the price target from $235 to $150 but maintained a "Buy" rating. Chen attributes the stock's decline to lower-than-expected guidance for Q2 sales and EBITDA margin. E.l.f.’s affordable cosmetics, especially popular among younger consumers, benefit from a strong social media marketing strategy.
First-quarter revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $324.5 million.
Most analysts still rate the stock as a "Buy," including Canaccord Genuity’s Susan Anderson, who set a $250 price target. The company also approved a $500 million stock buyback program.
Long story short: the price entered the accumulation zone. Good buy for a mid-term /long-term.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Oversold and Ready for a ReboundIt has been quite some time since we last took a look at e.l.f. Beauty, and our previous conclusion was that we could be seeing some more selling pressure. We were right about it; after a brief relief pump, the stock sold off by more than 45%.
In the end, our prediction about ELF being due for a sell-off was correct, and we are now back in the targeted area. Although we haven't touched the HVN POC yet, the situation looks both promising and concerning at the same time.
Additionally, the RSI is oversold for the first time since October 2023. Given the current market conditions and the prevailing uncertainty, we are not planning to go long on ELF at this time. However, it does appear ready to either fall a bit more or take off. We will continue to monitor it closely and have already set alerts. If we see an upward push, we might consider entering on a retest, but for now, we're staying on the sidelines.
We hope this update has been helpful to you 🔥
ELF - short by 40%✅e.l.f. Beauty #ELF Provides cosmetics and skincare products under the elf brand
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
🔴High growth potential and excellent balance sheet.
🔴Earnings growth is projected at 34.65% per year.
🔴Earnings have grown by 22.2% over the past year
🔴Analysts agree that the stock price will grow by 58.3%
🟢Significant insider selling over the past 3 months
🛠 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
📈 SHORT
▪️ Price fell below 200 and 50 EMA on the daily TF
▪️ MACD is below its signal line and negative.
▪️ RSI - below 50, but not in the oversold zone.
▪️ RSI - bearish divergence
▪️ Breakout of the “M” pattern support
↗️ TRADE
🎯 Target price $92.10
📊 Potential for a 40% decline
💼 Portfolio #active_management
⚠️ The ideas published are not investment recommendations, this is only the personal opinion of the blog author.
$ELF Bouncing Past the 9 & 21 Day Moving AverageNYSE:ELF On average, technical analysts often observe that when a stock crosses above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, there is approximately a 60-70% chance that the upward trend will continue. Conversely, when a stock crosses below both averages, there is about a 60-70% chance that the downward trend will persist.
Here are some general figures:
Bullish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue an upward trend after crossing above both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability that the stock will continue a downward trend after crossing below both the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
These figures are generalized estimates based on typical market behavior and may vary depending on specific stock characteristics and broader market conditions. Always consider conducting specific #backtesting and analysis for the particular stock or market you're interested in for more accurate predictions.
ELF breakout possible . US StockTrendline breakout possible 172 above
if sustain expected to fill the gap 182
182 above will next review level
$ELF A MARKET Leader with clear signs of breaking down. Bearish🚨#YUSUKE_ALERT🚨
NYSE:ELF Potential Short Setup! 💄 Stage 4 Downtrend Emerging
Technical Analysis
Breaking below 200-DSMA and 40-week MA
Relative Strength (RS) line breaking long-term 21-SMA
Entering Stage 4 downtrend
Current Price Action
Last traded price: $144.76 (as of 08/12/2024)
Daily range: $143.78 - $151.76
Significant bearish momentum observed
Option Flow
Notable put activity:
$140P 08/16/24: 164 contracts
$143P 08/16/24: 253 contracts
$147P 08/16/24: 257 contracts
Market Context
Leaders getting "shot down" one by one
Signs of market under distribution
Trading Implications
This setup suggests a potential short opportunity as ELF breaks key technical levels. The breakdown below major moving averages, coupled with weakening relative strength, indicates a possible trend reversal.
Risk Management
Consider waiting for a bounce to short
Key resistance levels: $152.5, $150, $147
Potential support: $139, $135
Action Plan
Monitor for continued weakness
Watch for failed rallies at previous support levels
Consider put options or short positions on strength
Set stop losses above recent swing highs
Traders should conduct thorough research and consider overall market conditions before entering any positions. This downtrend in a former leader could signal broader market weakness.
ELF Beauty (ELF): Ready for a Turn? Key Insights Inside!Following the last earnings call, ELF Beauty Inc. has caught the attention of many investors, with the stock surging 25% since then. However, we do not believe this signifies the emergence of a new super-bullish trend. Instead, we anticipate entering Wave B, which will likely lead to another significant pullback. In our view, the stock has completed Wave (5) of the first cycle and is now in the process of forming an overarching Wave 2. The exact duration and nature of this Wave 2 remain uncertain, as it depends on whether it will be a longer or shorter corrective wave.
In the coming days, we expect the stock to rise again, potentially reaching up to $207, which should be the maximum target. Just below this level is the high-volume node's point of control, which we expect to hold. It is possible that the stock could reach the high-volume node edge at $210, but it is unlikely to surpass this level. After this rise, we anticipate another sell-off down to Wave C, which we expect to fall within the range of $119 to $96. This expectation is based on the assumption that this is a zig-zag correction, where Wave C extends significantly below Wave A.
Before the recent rise, we observed a clear collection of liquidity a few days ago, leading to the breakout of the trendline. The RSI is not yet overbought, but it could become so in the coming days. If the RSI forms higher highs and the price breaks above the high-volume node edge at $221, it could indicate the potential for further upward movement. However, our current expectation is that the stock will hit resistance and then enter Wave C, leading to a deeper correction.
$ELF is $202 pt on horizon?NYSE:ELF clearly breaking out from base here. MAcd has turned to upside with William% range and RSI showing bullish divergence to the upside. My pt is $202 with volume gap above.
E.L.F. Beauty (NYSE: $ELF) Jumped 22% on Q1 Earnings ResultsCosmetics company e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: NYSE:ELF ) reported first-quarter earnings results that surpassed analysts' EPS expectations and revenue by 71% YoY. The company surpassed the SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B annual sales milestone in FY'24, but its operating margin missed analysts' expectations and its full-year revenue and earnings guidance missed Wall Street's estimates. ELF Beauty provided conservative guidance partly due to concerns about macro uncertainty, with the FY'25 sales forecast implying 21.1% growth.
Analysts at William Blair and Bank of America highlighted a "meaningful" Q4 sales beat, viewing guidance for fiscal 2025 as likely conservative due to disciplined management and strong sales quarter to date. Total sales growth of 71% was driven by volume (up 50%) and price/mix (higher by 21%) and was broad based across categories (cosmetics, skin care) and channels (national retailers and digital).
ELF Beauty ( NYSE:ELF ) forecasted EPS of $3.20-$3.25 in fiscal 2025, rising from $3.18 in fiscal 2024. The company guided revenue of $1.23 billion-$1.25 billion, also below views but up from $1.024 billion in fiscal 2024. ELF Beauty's fiscal year ends in March.
Shares of the cosmetics company rocketed 18.8%, reaching 184.64 in big volume on the stock market today. ELF Beauty stock ( NYSE:ELF ) recovered the 50-day line for the first time since a broad beauty stock sell-off in April. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) which sits at 61.53 also bolted higher Thursday after lagging since March. Target issued a reassuring note on beauty sales while issuing a glum earnings report, stating shoppers bought beauty items but less of other discretionary items, such as apparel and home products.
5/22/24 - $elf - setting up for taylor swift-kick-in-the-nuts?5/22/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ELF - let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin NASDAQ:SBUX , buying at NYSE:TGT and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering in less inventory (*ahem* tgt)... this is MAD expensive at 50x next year EPS and even 30x on '27 PE. I'd love to eventually dip buy this but fear this is going to get the #taylor-swift-kick-in-the-pants treatment. i'm surprised the market is not more willing to sell these sorts of things first but the balance of risk looks more -ve here than +ve. i am not sure i'll short bc that's a miserable existance, but i'm tempted here if the chain looks to offer reasonable R/R. will keep you guys posted.
ELF Bearish possible movementAs previously mentioned, the overall market sentiment is currently bearish, indicating a higher likelihood of downward movement in stocks.
Considering this backdrop, it's notable that this particular business has reported decreasing earnings in line with its recent quarterly reports.
From a technical standpoint, the price has experienced a pullback following a bearish leg to the 25MA, reacting from it. However, it's crucial to note that the accompanying volume is diminishing. Unless there is a notable increase in downside volume, this pullback might be deceptive. Nevertheless, it's likely only a matter of time before volume picks up, potentially signaling an opportunity for a short sell.
ELF Stock-Weekly 26 EMA visit with a confirmative bullish movement.
Long positions preferred.
-15m sideways movement with a false breakout leading to a big bull leg. In order for the health of the trend to be validated we expect a profit taking action leading close to the zone.
Entry after a pullback stalling on the zone followed by a strong bull candle/pattern.
Stop loss below the lowest point of this pullback.
Target on the next negotiation area.
The trade provided is indicative of the process that must be followed.
ELF potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price moving in strong bull trend, if the price crosses 165.72 level, it will further confirm our analysis
- basic DOW theory, safe play with trend
Entry Level(buy stop) :165.72
Stop Loss Level: 141.43
Take Profit Level 1: 190.01
Bearish reversal expectedWeak points
● The group's valuation in terms of earnings multiples appears relatively high. Indeed, the company is currently paying 97.39 times its anticipated net earnings per share for the current financial year.
● Based on current prices, the company presents a particularly high valuation level in terms of enterprise value.
● The company appears highly valued given the size of its balance sheet.
● The company's valuation level is particularly high given the cash flows that its activity generates.
● The average consensus opinion of analysts covering the issue has deteriorated over the past four months.
ELF - nice growth stockThis stock has terrific momentum and hopefully it takes a breather and presents another opportunity for a good entry point.
1) Year-over-year cash flow growth for e.l.f. Beauty is 59.7%
2) historical EPS growth rate for e.l.f. Beauty is 38%. However
The company's EPS is expected to grow 62.4% this year, crushing the industry average, which calls for EPS growth of 20.4%.
3) ELF poducts cost a fraction of the price of those from other cosmetics companies
4) Company has a lot of buzz. below is a typical review of ELF.
www.refinery29.com
long entry to the upsidevolume continues to support current price action more upside next level of resistance would be roughly 220
if it stays above and holds price can continue further as it has been on a steady climb since breaking out above 200
ELF – Symmetrical Triangle breakout Good breakout at 162ELF – Symmetrical Triangle breakout Good breakout at 162. On consistently staying above it will show 190 ++
ELF = Don't be naughty Don't be that girl who buys this stock here.
It's A LITTLE TOO HIGH. Needs to return to earth. It will be below $120 before Nov 1. I'll keep an eye on a pull back location, but I'll also watch for a short.... ;-)
ELF BeautyELF:- As long as price stays above 113. Stock is headed to 127.
Below 113 Stock will head to 108.47 and 100.47
ELF - longer-term uptrend still intactELF has been one of the strong trending stocks since it broke above its 200 day moving average in Jun 2022. Despite the recent steep corrections experienced by the market in the past few weeks, ELF had only dipped briefly below it's 50 day moving average.
Every reversion back to it's 50 day moving average as potential opportunity to long. with a trailing stop loss about 10% below the 50 day MA is prudent for the longer term investor.
A swing trader would have a tighter trailing stop and on the lookout for re-entries on the long side as long as the trend remains intact.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
