FedEx Corporation Weekly Log ChartEven my favorite "canary in coal" to support a US equities recovery is on life support.
In a Stage 4 decline with an expected 25% move down from VERY shortly here.
#fedex #fintwit #stanweinstein #stageanalysis
FDX trade ideas
FEDEX SHORT (FDX SHORT) :(Hello,
I have explained many things about the recession in my idea about the world crisis of 2023. And other articles such as the OIL SHORT, or THE BITCOIN CRASH (I will leave all these ideas linked.)
But here I want to delve deeper into supply chains.
I'm here again to show you a SHORT idea against FedEx , that company that is in the middle of all the orders in the world. What would we do without transportation chains?
They are always in the middle of "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Transport chains like FedEx are very necessary, since without them the orders could not be transported.
Now the words: "customers", "retailers", manufacturers" and "suppliers". Sounds me as a special effect, THE BULLWHIP EFFECT.
You know, the BULLWHIP EFFECT, as the name suggests: "bullwhip", with a small change in the "whip", could cause devastating effects in the "whiplash".
I recommend to search on Google about the Bullwhip Effect, there are nice videos on YouTube.
The bullwhip effect in demand forecasting arises when each channel member forecasts demand based on information derived from the ordering patterns of an immediate inferior member.
It basically consists in that consumer demand does not present significant fluctuations, while inventories reveal important changes, showing a decrease or excess in stock levels. If, in the different links of the supply chain, they do not handle constant and true information on their inventories and consumer demand for their products, the bullwhip effect gains strength, generating an excess of safety stock, which, as is known, radically increases the cost. , the end product.
What are the causes of this effect?
Lack of information between suppliers and intermediate buyers.
Management without order in production orders, generating volatility in shipments.
Possible periods without demand for the goods.
Possibilities of obtaining wholesale discounts (Which generates time problems).
Inflated or strategic orders. (Taking advantage of market conditions).
Supply uncertainty. It can generate unnecessary orders.
This effect is so devastating that it is very difficult to detect it really, but it is more difficult to detect it if we are in a "SLUMPFLATION"...
I was not amused when the media said that the crisis would not yet come. OBVIOUSLY I don't want any crisis. What I don't want is for the crisis to be worse. They always make the same mistake, they hide the real data and say that the recession hasn't arrived yet. But in a few months the recession was sooner than expected.
What is in the middle of all the BULLWHIP EFFECT?
- Answer: "Transport Chains"
Actually the transport chains will also be affected, just put on some music in a dark room, close your eyes, and think about it. Don't let your money foolishly burn!
Bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble within bubble... SPLASH!
I do not have much to add. You just need to do a little research on the internet, DON'T TRUST ANYONE, NOT THE FED, NOR THE PRESIDENT, NOR THE INTERNET, NOR DO YOU TRUST ME.
You can only trust yourself and your research that you have done.
I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND PLEASE SEARCH THE INFORMATION ON YOUR OWN, BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. YOU AND YOU ONLY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR INVESTMENTS AND IN NO WAY WILL I BE RESPONSIBLE IF YOU USE THIS IDEA THAT I AM SHARING HERE.
Thank you very much for reading this article and not closing it like others.
Have a nice day,
Esiquiel.
FDX - July 28 to Aug 1, 2022- Supertrend signals a "Buy" on July 27, 2022
- 50 Day crossed 200 Day EMA on July 28, 2022
Entry Price - 500 @ $229.35
Target Price (1.5:1) - $238.32
- SOLD on Aug 1, 2022 - 250 @ $238.81 (4.12%)
= +4,730.00
FDX $FDX Continuation LongFDX $FDX Continuation Long. TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. After TP2, trail with 0.5ATR step and 1.5ATR offset.
$FDX with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $FDX after a Positive Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A with an expected accuracy of 50%.
Falling from a W PatternBut is up today.
FDX raised their dividend and price soared.
Looks like a bearish W formed and the last leg terminated at the 1.113.
Probable Alternate Bat/Bearish.
Whatever type of W or pattern this is, if it is a W as I had to use my imagination on this one, price has passed a few levels of support.
Price also formed a possible inverse head and shoulders near support.
Price is close to Resistance and what happens there may help get an idea where this is going.
Targets in orange below are valid only if price breaks the support level of 191.85.
There are a few gaps under price.
No recommendation.
Always take a good look in the rearview mirror.
FDX: Buying May ResumeFDX has broken through a wedge/triangle (however you want to look at it) and found support at 219. If buying resumes and FDX can break $249, we may see a double top at 268 which is the 1.618 fib extension. Earnings are coming, so markets may act optimistically until reporting begins.
Not financial advice
at make or break trend support 🎯a break of this trend support will send it dumping to support mentioned in previous analysis, watching for shorts below 217.80, longs above 231.19
7/4/22 FDXFedEx Corporation ( NYSE:FDX )
Sector: Transportation (Air Freight/Couriers)
Market Capitalization: $57.955B
Current Price: $223.61
Breakout price: $231.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $219.70-$198.80
Price Target: $270.00-$276.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 266-278d
Contract of Interest: $FDX 1/20/23 220c
Trade price as of publish date: $27.06/contract
FDX (Falling Wedge Pattern)FDX has broken out of this falling wedge / bull flag pattern on the daily in addition to breaking the 200MA again, right at previous resistance turned support. It has also broken structure to create a higher high. NYSE:FDX
Trade Idea: Wait for pullback & retest of the red wedge resistance line & 200MA to show they have turned support and begin the formation of new higher low w liquidity run then enter for a long swing / LEAPS play to ride the price back up to the previous supply zone then watch for break and hold of that zone.
Entry: TBD (Will update)
Targets: $254.80, $264.85, $279.28, $299.37
SL: $194.25
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice as I am not a financial advisor. DO NOT blindly follow anyone and leverage money that you cannot afford to lose without proper knowledge to back your decision making.
FDX - Cup & Handle setup before earningsCup and handle basing pattern.
Huge institutional buying on handle breakout.
Leader the past 5 days during general market panic sell.
Risk: 80 bps
Profit Protection: 3-Day Trailing Stop Rule (Peter Brandt)
You don't need to know what's going to happen next to make money ~Mark Douglas
Anything can happen ~Mark Douglas
Bull run for FDX? FDX has seen some powerful moves lately. It has the opportunity to cross over on MAs and be super bullish.
Rectangle/Earnings 6-23 AMCFDX appears to be trading in a horizontal trading range.
If price breaks a trendline in one direction, I will be excited.
Until then I will watch it bounce back and forth or swing trade it inside the Rectangle.
FDX has a history of trading in channels, but recently raised the dividend, I think?
Price on this one has a history of disappointment, but who knows this go around?
No recommendation.
FDX - BREAKOUTDays ago, FDX tried to break the resistance, but the attempt was not successful which caused the price to drop back into the channel
It is time for round two and as it looks the bulls have enough momentum to break the wadge, which will lead to new buys with a price target of $320
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FDX -technicalThis chart is based on technical analysis. FDX will be influenced by the overall market + dividends.
On the chart, you can also see photos of my calculations - I encourage you to calculate FCF model yourself.
Second FCF model is based on the idea that the company will growth fast in near future and then growths slower-> costs and payables go up. Please write in comments your view on future of company's cash flows. How many people are familiar with FCF model?
Disclaimer
On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.
FedEx and the Falling Wedge 📈FedEx NYSE:FDX 📦 gave the falling wedge look back in January 2022—after it failed to break-through trendline resistance.
Since then, it's been an easy stock to watch bounce around and consolidate into a more defined falling wedge, threatening to break trendline support throughout the month of April. After signaling an inverse head and shoulders coming into May, it was a reliable trade up to 225 resistance before failing victim to the three black crows —right back to trendline support on June 13. 📉
The catalyst was an announcement of a 53% raise of the quarterly dividend that sent a big gap up over 218 resistance/support through 225 to test the very top of the falling wedge trendline. Closing near the highs around 231 resistance will provide room for a breakout, however, it would be better to see a few days of consolidation above 225 before confirming the breakout—on volume—over 231.
Depending on what comes out from the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, June 15 will either send this into full breakout mode or send this back toward 218 support.
Keep this one on the top of your radar.
FDX: Looking for Potential Double TopFedEx is currently in a descending wedge pattern. I am looking for FDX to break out of this pattern in the next few days and retest $240.
Not financial advice
will support hold or do bears send to new lows? time will tell:)FDX is approaching extreme support zone, if it can hold and bounce for the 4th time my upside targets are 227.6-244.99-262.38, a break below 192.63 and I we can target 180-160 range.
Fedex Long off RetracementFedex NYSE:FDX is the latest stock on my radar to do a 50% Retracement from the COVID low to All Time High at 204.30. This morning there was a price volatility spike on the 30 minute timeframe (see below) to trigger attention to the setup. I am going to give it a wide berth to play the weekly level but start the position on today's down day.
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