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FRC trade ideas

FRBK- 1st Bank Failure of 2024No special indicators here. FRBK closed by regulators on 4-26-2024. The company was founded on November 16, 1987, and is headquartered in Philadelphia, PA. This is not to be confused with the other regional bank closed last year about the same approx. time FRC- First Republic Bank which failed and subsequently bought by JP Morgan on April 26, 2023. Official statement released May 1, 2023. www.fdic.gov How many more set to fail? I have also noticed consolidation of banks taking place and notifications going out indicating they will not be FDIC insured after they consolidations- making deposits in this climate more risky to customers. FRBK Source: www.cnn.com
NYSE:FRC
by Moorsc0de
First Republic Bank | FRCFirst Republic stock plummets after revealing deposit exodus in March The stock of First Republic FRC dropped more than 43% Tuesday after the bank surprised investors and analysts by revealing an outflow of more than $100 billion in deposits in March. The disclosure made during the release of its first-quarter results on Monday afternoon raised new questions about the fate of a San Francisco lender that was at the center of last month's banking turmoil.the company outlined its survival strategy Monday. It said it plans to increase its insured deposits, trim the borrowings it used to cover customer withdrawals, shrink its balance sheet and reduce its workforce by 20-25% to cut expenses. It is also pursuing other “strategic” options, including a sale or raising more capital.the bank is considering divesting HKEX:50 billion to $100 billion of long-dated securities and mortgages to make an eventual capital raise easier. Its stock, which was already down more than 85% this year, was briefly halted for volatility on Tuesday. Other bank stocks also dropped, including some of First Republic's regional rivals. PacWest (PACW), a lender based in Beverly Hills that reports earnings after the market close, was down more than 6%. HomeStreet (HMST), a lender in Seattle that reported earnings Monday, sank more than 36%. analysts said First Republic faces a lot of uncertainty as it tries to recover from last month's chaos. “First Republic appears to be in a holding pattern and burning fuel,” Evercore analysts said in a new research note. Wells Fargo analysts said in a separate note that First Republic's existence "very much hangs in the balance." "The future of this company is very uncertain," added CI Roosevelt Associate Partner Jason Benowitz in an interview with Yahoo Finance. First Republic, he added, "lost so much in deposits, they have to replace that funding somehow, so they’re doing it with borrowing.” The borrowing will “really weigh on their profitability both in the reported quarter and going forward.” Wedbush lowered its earnings estimates for that very reason, noting that the heavy deposit losses would weigh on profits. “Where does First Republic go from here?” Wedbush said in its note. “Our base case is that First Republic continues to move forward as a standalone company,” referencing an earlier note in April that argued First Republic faces a "Hobson's choice." Even a sale of First Republic at $0 a share is unlikely, Wedbush said in that earlier note, because any buyer would still essentially have to pay billions to absorb the unrealized losses on its balance sheet. Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance earlier this month that the federal government will need to provide some help for First Republic to find a buyer due to this “hole” on the lender’s balance sheet. “I think First Republic Bank is clearly on a watchlist, and probably somebody at some point will buy it. But the challenge there is that it needs government assistance,” Rubenstein said earlier this month A lot of money is riding on its fate. Everyday investors have bet HKEX:245 million on First Republic stock since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, according to Vanda Research, the third highest inflow to a specific bank stock behind Bank of America (BAC) and Charles Schwab (SCHW). It also has one of the highest levels of interest among so-called short sellers betting on the stock to decline, according to analytics firm S3 Partners, accounting for HKEX:480 million in such bets over the last 30 days. Its stock is now down more than 85% since the beginning of the year. First Republic "will be a bellwether of sentiment for the sector," Vanda said in a note last week. The new hand wringing about First Republic following the release of its first-quarter results Monday. Its first-quarter earnings of HKEX:269 million were down by 30% from the fourth quarter and 33% from the year earlier period. What surprised most observers is how many deposits it lost in March. As of March 9, the day before regulators seized Silicon Valley Bank, its deposits were $173.5 billion, down just slightly from the year end. On March 10, it began experiencing "unprecedented deposit outflows." The net total outflow by the end of March was HKEX:72 billion, but the actual number was above $100 million after stripping out a temporary infusion of HKEX:30 billion in uninsured deposits from 11 of the country’s largest banks. Those deposits have to stay at First Republic for 120 days, according to a person familiar with the rescue plan. The bank said Monday that outflows began to stabilize the week of March 27 and deposit activity "has remained stable" through April 21. Its balance as of Friday was $102.7 billion, a drop of 1.7% since the end of the quarter that the bank attributed to seasonal client tax payments. "Despite the uncertainty of the past two months, and while average account sizes have decreased, we have retained over 97% of client relationships that banked with us at the start of the first quarter," First Republic CEO Michael Roffler said on a conference call following the release of results. The company didn't take questions from analysts.
NYSE:FRCShort
by moonypto
They Will Protect the Banks, FRC is a LayupFirst Republic bank has been slaughtered due to the banking crisis in the US. FRC is backed by JP Morgan, the strongest bank on earth. Unless the Gov't wants all regional banks to fail and roll it all up in to the big banks, FRC should survive and if it survives, it can easily double from here. Obviously the sentiment on this stock and bank stocks in general are terrible right now, we'll see if that changes. If the stock falls into the single digits from here I will close the position.
NYSE:FRCLong
by inanis_
FRC - FRCB 140$- 160$ Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed long-term investors, Today, I stand before you to ignite the flames of motivation that burn within each and every one of you. You have chosen a path less traveled, one that requires patience, perseverance, and unwavering faith in the power of the future. You are the warriors of the financial world, the champions of long-term investing. In a world plagued by instant gratification and short-sightedness, you have chosen to swim against the tide. You understand that true wealth is not built overnight, but rather, it is cultivated through years of dedication and wise decision-making. You grasp the concept that the greatest returns come to those who have the fortitude to weather the storms, the determination to hold steady in turbulent times. You are the architects of your financial destiny. While others may be swayed by market fluctuations, succumbing to fear and panic, you stand tall, unwavering in your conviction. You have studied the patterns of history, understood the cyclical nature of the markets, and armed yourself with knowledge and insight. Do not be disheartened by the occasional setbacks and market downturns. They are but temporary blips on the radar of your long-term vision. Understand that the journey to financial success is not a straight line, but rather a winding path with peaks and valleys. Embrace the lows, for they present opportunities in disguise, allowing you to accumulate quality assets at discounted prices. Think beyond the present moment, beyond the noise and distractions that surround us. Envision the world of tomorrow, where technology will revolutionize industries, where innovation will unlock untold potential, and where the global economy will thrive. You, my friends, are the beneficiaries of this incredible future. The power of compounding is your ally, and time is your greatest asset. As you invest for the long term, your wealth grows exponentially, generating returns upon returns. Embrace this power, let it fuel your motivation, and remind yourself that every dollar invested today is a seed planted for a prosperous future. But remember, true success is not measured solely in monetary terms. It is the impact you create, the lives you touch, and the legacy you leave behind. Use your wealth wisely, making a positive difference in the world. Support causes that resonate with your values, nurture the dreams of aspiring entrepreneurs, and empower the next generation. In closing, I urge you to stay the course, for the path you have chosen is not for the faint of heart. Embrace the challenges, for they build your character and make your victories all the more rewarding. Hold fast to your dreams, for they are the beacons that guide you through the darkest nights. You, my fellow long-term investors, possess the power to shape your financial destiny, to build a future of abundance, and to inspire others to follow in your footsteps. Let the fire of motivation burn within you, driving you forward, as you navigate the ever-changing landscape of the markets. May your investments be fruitful, your dreams be realized, and your legacy be everlasting. Together, we shall conquer the world of finance, one wise investment at a time. Thank you, and may the journey ahead be filled with prosperity and fulfillment.
OTC:FRCBLong
by TrojanBible
1
First Republic Bank Continues Below $5Merely an update to my previous idea. And well... I started this idea before the bell, and it was $3.51 at the time. It's now $2.01 post as of typing this but that will be different already. I think I will just post this as is, because it's moving too quickly to make any rational conclusions. To be noted, every time $15 was broken, the market dumped it below preventing it from becoming proper support. Now, the HKEX:5 line is going to be doing similar tricks on it and FRC fell below it. Notice the two more recent dead cats I have professionally marked 😼 I did not have HKEX:3 price line on my previous chart, but I see that now there's a clear line there as well. Only psychological levels matter at this point. Same ideas: *It's a personal opinion of mine that psychological levels, whole number resistance and support, should have this much control over price action. Psychological levels have the most effect when there's extremes of emotions. I feel it's rather self-explanatory. It's either going towards zero or it's getting bought to prevent it from hitting the pavement. The variance in price alone is a clear indicator its in deep trouble while it was just downgraded to BB. Previous low on charts of $17.60 is notable, while HKEX:20 pertains to psychological significance. Below this, I see little more than psychological levels. HKEX:10 , double digits. HKEX:5 , where select exchanges consider a stock a penny stock. HKEX:1 , where the rest consider it a penny stock. You can label a ton of this chart a deadcat bounce here or there. Please add thoughts. I didn't see a Fibonacci ladder helping much because the price action was too chaotic. DYOR/DYOC.*
NYSE:FRCShort
by mrniemeier
A Beginner's Guide to Selling Covered Calls for ProfitSelling covered calls is a popular and relatively conservative option trading strategy. This guide will walk you through the process of selling covered calls, using a real-life example with FRC stock, to help you understand how it works and how you can profit from it. Step 1: Buy the underlying shares First, you need to own the underlying stock. In this example, I purchased FRC shares at $3.93 each. Owning the shares allows you to sell covered call options, which is essentially offering someone the right to buy your shares at a specific price by a specific date. Step 2: Sell covered call options Next, you'll sell covered call options for your FRC shares. In this example, I'm selling a May 5th HKEX:5 call option at a premium of $1.15 per share (which I reduced to $1.00 to make the trade more attractive). This means I'll make money as long as the FRC stock stays below $6.00 by May 5th. Step 3: Understand the role of Implied Volatility (IV) The stock's Implied Volatility (IV) plays a crucial role in determining the option's premium. In this case, FRC had a high IV of 600%, which makes selling call options more lucrative due to the higher premiums. However, buying options when IV is high is not recommended. Step 4: Calculate your effective cost basis Subtract the premium received from selling the call option ($1.00 per share) from the initial purchase price of the shares ($3.93). In this example, my effective cost basis for the FRC shares becomes $2.93 per share, as long as the stock stays below HKEX:5 by May 5th. Step 5: Assess potential profits If the stock price reaches HKEX:5 by May 5th, I'll still make a profit by selling your shares at the agreed-upon price of HKEX:5 , plus the $1.00 premium per share you received for selling the call option. Your effective selling price would be $6.00 per share. Step 6: Plan for various scenarios If the stock price stays below HKEX:5 by the option's expiration date, I can potentially sell another covered call option with a higher strike price for the following week or a later date. This allows me to continue profiting from selling options while holding onto my shares. Selling covered calls can be a profitable strategy for generating income and reducing the cost basis of your stock holdings. By understanding the basics of this strategy and carefully considering the role of Implied Volatility, you can increase your chances of success in the options market.
NYSE:FRCEducation
by bitdoctor
2
Bank Wars: 1st Republic, 1st Citizens, Silicon Valley, BitcoinAs First Republic Bank continues to slide down the charts (still ongoing at the publishing of this idea), talks about another bank run happening is starting to resurface again. How valid is the claim that people will flee to crypto as things get worse in the banking system? (Especially with people like Balaji, that claims that Bitcoin will hit HKEX:1 ,000,000 by the end of June.) A closer look at some of the facts. Balaji's 1M Bitcoin Thread: twitter.com
NYSE:FRCLong
by RyanTanaka
FRC value plunged below $1 billion for the first timeFirst Republic Bank's (FRC) market value plunged below HKEX:1 billion for the first time ever on Wednesday after a report said the U.S. government was unwilling to intervene in the rescue process, hammering the lender's stock. After a brutal selloff, the bank's market capitalization was about FWB:886 million at its lowest on Wednesday, a far cry from its peak of more than HKEX:40 billion in November 2021. U.S. government officials are currently unwilling to intervene in the First Republic rescue process, CNBC reported, citing sources. The bank has been looking at several options, such as selling assets or the creation of a "bad bank", a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. The bad bank possibility is a crisis-type method of isolating financial assets that have problems. Trading in First Republic's shares was halted multiple times. The stock was last down nearly 30% at $5.66. However, analysts have highlighted several roadblocks which could complicate rescue efforts for the San Francisco-based lender as it looks to emerge out of the crisis sparked by an outflow of more than $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter. "The (First Republic) assets will be sold, but it may take some time and could be sold at a pretty severe discount to par," David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said. At least three brokerages have cut their price targets on First Republic's shares since it reported first-quarter earnings on Monday. "First Republic's problems are likely idiosyncratic ... and they obviously have a painful path in front of them," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in Boston, said. A string of earnings reports from regional banks last week had reassured investors, but the banking sector has come under renewed pressure following First Republic's results. The KBW Regional Banking Index (.KRX) has lost 4.4% so far this week.
NYSE:FRCEducation
by SroshMayi
$FRC Bank Stock Failure Or Survivor?One of the largest regional banks in the US, First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC) has been shook by the banking crisis which led many to pull their bank deposits from smaller, regional banks and move their money to bigger banks. While larger banks like JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all beat earnings expectations, this could bode ill for FRC and other regional banks since it indicates a large number of deposits were withdrawn. Still, FRC’s Q1 earnings on April 24th will be crucial for the future of this bank stock. FRC Fundamentals Panicked customers withdrew HKEX:70 billion or almost 40% of FRC’s total deposits following the March bank run triggered by Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank’s collapse. FRC drew particular concern at this time since 68% of its deposits were uninsured. While this is a high percentage of uninsured deposits, the number was relatively low compared to SVB’s 94% and Signature Bank’s 90%. Still the damage was done and the bearish outlook for FRC stock was enough to cause investors like Alecta – Sweden’s biggest pension fund – and Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund to sell shares of FRC stock. Alecta appears to have walked away with a HKEX:728 million loss after selling its entire position. FRC is in a no doubt weaker position since it was downgraded to junk status by S&P Global Rating due to the risk of deposit outflows. Therefore it was not surprise that the extremely bearish sentiment towards FRC stock led short interest to increase significantly over the past month reaching 27.4%. In an effort to salvage the situation FRC suspended its common stock dividends and payments of quarterly cash dividends on its preferred stock. Canceling its dividends will allow FRC to increase its capital since the bank paid nearly HKEX:348 million in dividends last year. Even some of the bank’s executives have elected to cancel their annual bonuses for 2023. But despite these efforts to conserve capital, many investors remain unconvinced that the bank could recover. Still, there are a few reasons investors have chosen to go long on FRC stock. Jamie Dimon & FRC Stock For one thing, the 11 largest banks in the country have joined forces in an initiative led by JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon, to save FRC by depositing HKEX:30 billion in the bank. With each bank depositing HKEX:5 billion as uninsured deposits, it appears that Dimon and other banking executives are hoping to restore confidence in FRC. Investors might be wondering why Dimon has become FRC’s white knight and while its impossible to know the mind of JP Morgan’s CEO, this isn’t the first time he’s saved banks in crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis, Dimon saved Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual but he reportedly regretted this decision later on. Despite this, he is working to instill confidence in the banking system yet again by attempting to save First Republic Bank. Considering that FRC would be an unlikely acquisition for JPMorgan since the regional bank does not have much to offer a powerhouse like JPMorgan – especially now that most of its world-class team of advisors have walked away – Dimon’s interest in the bank likely has more to do with preventing a confidence crises throughout the banking system. As is, FRC has reported a cash position of HKEX:34 billion excluding HKEX:30 billion in deposits from these 11 banks. It has also increased its Federal Reserves borrowings from HKEX:20 billion to $109 billion at a rate of 4.75% – a sign that Federal Regulators are confident enough in FRC that it has been allowed to significantly increase its borrowings. First Republic Bank Outlook Long-term, FRC has secured greater stability thanks to the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program which is intended to provide emergency liquidity to banks like FRC. Until now, FRC was regarded as a very stable bank with an excellent asset quality history thanks in part to its customer base. Historically, most of its loans have been secured with real estate as collateral and FRC’s securities are mainly government-backed securities or investment-grade bonds. Since these investments are considered safe, this could help restore confidence in FRC long-term. Although customers’ faith in the bank may have been shaken by this crisis, FRC also has a notable history of customer loyalty and satisfaction boasting a historical 2% customer attrition rate – far lower than the industry average of 8%. Additionally, FRC has a net promoter score of 80. This measurement of customer loyalty and satisfaction is considerably higher than the industry average of 34. Prior to the crisis, FRC reported a total risk-based capital ratio measuring the bank’s capital in relation to its risk-weighted assets, of 12.6%. While this was above the required minimum ratio of 8%, FRC has since seen significant deposit outflows which would affect the bank’s capital adequacy. On one hand, the higher ratio indicates that FRC was potentially in a better position to weather the storm but depending on the severity of the outflows its ratio may now be well below the required minimum – indicating the bank is now in a poor position to handle its losses. Overall, the cash injection from the nation’s leading banks and support from the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program have likely solved short term liquidity issues for FRC. However, the market sentiment has yet to recover as illustrated by the Regional Banking ETF’s drop back to November 2020 levels. As for FRC’s situation specifically, the bank will need to shrink its balance sheet – hopefully selling some of its assets without taking a significant loss. Some investors are hopeful that FRC will be able to shrink its balance sheet naturally when some of its loans turn over by the end of the year. Still, FRC will likely see changes in the amount of interest it earns on loans compared to the amount of interest it pays on deposits. The difference between both of these is an indication of a bank’s profitability, but in FRC’s case its Net Interest Margin – which was around 3.5% for banks in 2019 – may be negative. This would indicate that FRC is losing more money than it makes on its own investments. Because deposits from bank customers provide the bank with the liquidity necessary to make long-term investments, if customers have lost confidence in FRC it could be fatal. Additionally, FRC still has unrealized losses on debt securities and it will be exposed to more risk if the Fed continues raising interest rates due to its large portfolio of fixed-rate loans and fixed-rate securities. While the Bank Term Funding Program appears to be a way for banks like FRC to avoid loss realization on its held-to-maturity securities, FRC will still be in a tough situation. Despite this, if FRC is able to survive the next few years, there could be significant upside for its stock price. Prior to the crisis, FRC had increasing net profit, operated above capital requirements, and its nonperforming assets were near all-time lows as of December 2022. Overall, if FRC is able to maintain its relationships with customers and offer services that are “sticky” in that customers would be less likely to move their accounts elsewhere there could be renewed customer confidence. Another silver lining its that FRC lowered the interest rates on certificates of deposits. The bank stopped offering 4-month deposits at the rate of 4.75% and 7-month deposits at the rate of 4.95%. Currently, its highest interest rate on deposits is only 4.65% which could be a sign that FRC is no longer being under the same pressure to gain capital as it was previously. FRC Stock Q1 Earnings FRC is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings on Monday, April 24th, 2023. This will be the bank’s first earnings following the banking crisis and will provide investors with some insight into how badly FRC was impacted by the crisis. FRC is expected to report an EPS of $0.51 and revenues of $1.1 billion If the deposit outflows reported in these earnings are lower than investors fear, FRC stock could surprise the market and rally on the unexpectedly good news. However, if FRC reports dangerously high outflows – which is possible considering national banks’ earnings beat in recent weeks – FRC stock will likely fall to a new low. FRC Financials Looking into FRC’s 2022 annual report, the bank had HKEX:212 billion in assets, including HKEX:166 billion in loans. FRC had HKEX:195 billion in liabilities including HKEX:176 billion in deposits. Looking into FRC’s revenues, the bank reported $5.7 billion in revenues. Finally, the bank’s operating expenses were $3.6 billion and it reported $1.6 billion in net income. Technical Analysis Looking at the hourly chart, FRC stock recently spiked up 14% after Western Alliance (WAL) reported its earnings. The regional bank had also fallen under scrutiny during the banking crisis but its report that deposits increased by HKEX:2 billion since the end of Q1 is a bullish sign for FRC stock. The stock appears to have formed a bull flag but the body of the flag was formed during AH and PM therefore the pattern may not be a strong indicator. FRC stock is currently trading above the 50 and 21 MAs which is another bullish sign, however, it remains below the 200 MA. Looking at the indicators, the RSI is at 58 and the MACD appears to be approaching a bearish crossover. Fundamentally, FRC’s main catalyst is its upcoming earnings which will likely be a deciding factor for the stock. Its earnings report could be an opportunity for investors to go long after evaluating the health of the company, but in the case that FRC report shows that the company is in worse condition than expected, the stock will likely break its all time low of $11.52. FRC Forecast While the banking crisis appears to have been averted, the shocks to the banking system likely have not settled. Investors received mixed signals from big banks’ earnings which signaled that customers moved their deposits to larger banks in droves, yet Western Alliance’ report indicates that the situation may not be as bearish as some expected. With short-term liquidity concerns generally abated and FRC is taking action to preserve capital by suspending dividends and increasing its federal reserve borrowing, FRC could be positioned to weather the storm. Moreover, the bank was granted a lifeline thanks to the HKEX:30 billion in uninsured deposits from some of the nation’s largest banks. With investors both bearish and bullish on FRC stock, the company’s upcoming Q1 earnings call will be an important catalyst to watch as it gives an indication of the bank’s future. However bullish investors could take the opportunity to take a long position on the stock hoping for a gradual recovery for this regional bank.
NYSE:FRC
by Penny_Stocks_Today
1
FRC: Buy 9 Green SetupOne of the most plugged-in high financiers thinks troubled regional bank First Republic Bank will need more than a few bucks from stronger rivals to stay afloat and prevent the return of the banking turmoil that dominated March's headlines. “I think First Republic Bank is clearly on a watchlist, and probably somebody at some point will buy it. But the challenge there is that it needs government assistance,” The Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said in a lengthy chat on Yahoo Finance Live. ‌Rubenstein believes First Republic Bank’s finances are in such rough shape the government will have no choice but to step in.
NYSE:FRCLong
by sequentialvision