GSL Making Falling Wedge Breakout will target to 26-27Bullish Indication
Falling Wedge is formed (BO Target is 26-27)
January was bullish 14 times out of 18 years
Divergence on Daily time Frame
Bearish Indication
Making Lower Lows (Down trend)
Spining Top Candle
Strong Support at 18-19
Facing resistance at 22-23
GSL trade ideas
$GSL, Target 25$
Global Ship Lease, Inc. owns and charters containerships under fixed-rate charters to container shipping companies.
Positive:
Management has been aggressively buying back shares
Yields high return on invested capital
Consistently increasing earnings per share
Impressive gross profit margins
Pays a significant dividend to shareholders
Analysts predict the company will be profitable this year
Negative:
Stock price movements are quite volatile
Hedge funds Sold 336.0K shares in the past quarter
If 21$/Resistance is passed, stock could could raise to 25$
GSL looking goodI think GSL will take off as it just bounced off it 200 day MA.
Price target of 30+, personally expecting 40.
J Mintzmyer has a price target of 45, and he knows more far more about shipping than I do.
May is usually where shipping does a comeback, and don't see this time being different. These shipping rates should remain high as China has their Zero - Covid policy combined with the US shipping negotiation.
Bear case:
Shipping rates collapse and drags GSL with it (even though they have secured contracts far out in the future.)
Current discussed polices that limit shipping margins to soften rates (Though this alone won't be much of a hindrance).
$GSL Buy the dip - global supply chain issues
- high rates in shipping locked
- 2022 estimates:
590M revenue
32% YoY revenue increase
65% YoY EBITDA increase
332M free cash flow
- either it should rebound from the support line of the channel or decline more towards the 200SMA where the entry point is even sweeter.
This is a nice BUY setup IMHO that satisfies both short term and long term factors
Our Globalized WorldNow that Q3 earnings season it is time to return to the fundamentals. In light of the current turmoil in the middle east, today we will talk about globalization. One of the most interesting things about global financial markets is that they are all connected in one way or another. I like to compartmentalize globalization into two general categories supply chains and political influences. In today’s episode, we will focus on supply chains.
When providing context into supply chains, I do not think there is a better example than Apple’s iPhone. Of course, the iPhone was designed back in Cupertino, CA, but the supply chain runs into multiple different countries. The complexity is mind-boggling, there are over 175 individual components. Additionally, the design and assembly of these components also happen in distinct parts of the world, in the US and China. The complexity is all done in an attempt to reduce costs by outsources cheap parts and labor but it also comes with associated risks. If one link in the chain breaks then the probability of success is essentially broken. A perfect example of this is the automotive industry. Following the reopening of countries around the world due to the COVID-19 induced shut down, assembly lines around the world were closed. As things ramp back up, a delay in a single component, no matter how minimal, can cause significant disruptions.
Another inlet to the supply chain is shipping channels. Back in March 2021, there was an incident with a cargo ship that became barged in the Suez Canal. If you are unfamiliar with the Suez Canal, it significantly reduces travel time from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic. The bargain is not only delayed the individual ship but every ship behind it. This created delays throughout the global shipping community that results in months and millions in delays. This is example is not limited to boats but can be seen in any transportation medium, such as the hacking of the Colonial Pipeline which created petroleum shortages across the East coast. Supply chain disruptions could hit any industry at any time.
The most significant feature of this trend is that shipping rates have been rising for over 30 years and there is no end to the trend. Even in the COVID-induced recession shipping rates rose. As companies optimize costs through increased globalization, the risk of supply chain disruptions also increases a counterproductive tradeoff.
Personally, I like and own the company $GSL which will benefit from the crosswinds either way. The company owns and operates shipping vessels around the world. As volumes increase their pricing power expands. In the unlikely scenario where volumes begin to decrease they will still maintain market share and become cash flowing machine. Additionally, if the industry consolidates then decreasing shipping rates will incentivize companies to continue to invest abroad. The company had a couple of problematic years due to the increased political tension during Donald Trump’s tariff-friendly administration but has been on the rise ever since. If there is a continued globalization-friendly administration the stock could continue to outperform. In particular general performance to the DJT (Dow Transportation Index), it has been a laggard. Potential for mean-reversion?
Global Shipping Equity recovery?Thanks for viewing,
I am just posting this to make tracking the equity easier. If you ignore the massive 1 month spike in price and volume (10x volume) that would otherwise invalidate my EW count, the main downward price trend seems to be over. If I average in, I will have to be able to withstand price drops possibly to $3 and keep buying, but after that there is significant upside.
I don't know what will happen to the global shipping industry. All I know is that EW points to the correction is over and the movement trend (despite inevitable volatility) I expect to be generally upwards over the medium-term. I am always looking at "bad news" unloved industries to see if there is value.
Also very low PE and price to book value ratios.
There also may be a swing in investor sentiment to real assets, Companies that actually mine, move, or make necessary things (e.g. not leisure cruise ships or over-leveraged airlines) If that happens, investors will find a Company trading at around a 70% discount on net assets. I would be more willing to invest in that as a store-hold of wealth than negative yielding government bonds. While, not as attractive as bullion or gold miners, it seems still better than bonds.
Protect those funds
PS; No fundamental analysis was conducted, no reports looked at etc. Liability disclaimer etc etc I am not long, but will look into it.
GSL Shippers Heating Up/Merger NewsGSL and Posiedon have agreed to a merger to take place sometime in November. GSL is being valued @ $1.78 a share by Posiedon and receiving over $200mln. With GSL trading at close today at $.95 the upside on the deal alone is great.
But also now take into account the shipper run that has taken place the past couple Novembers and I believe we have a perfect set of circumstance for a nice upside potential for GSL. Given that GSL ran to over $4 in Nov 2016 and $2 in Nov 2017 we could see $1.78 and more.
Check out the top trend line on the monthly chart below.
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