Michael Johnson vs AckmanHLF - the pawn between CEO & Ackman, has been contained in this mid-term downtrend channel.
6 days into earning period and again, my humble projection of where the price might gap up or down depend on the earning.
HLF trade ideas
$HLF - weekly charta downwave that's identical in size to the 2012-04-23 to 2012-12-24 drop (red arrow #1) would take Herbalife's stock down to ~$36.
Any bulls dare to challenge Ackman?On a weekly basis, if HLF price fall below the uptrend channel support, situation can get worse. There is a possibility that it will test the major support of 34-35 again.
Unless a very rich bull has the ability to challenge the "Shorts" of Ackman and turn things around, perhaps Ackman has been accumulating and wish to turn into bulls... Who knows :-)
Follow Up (A month ago, Bearish Call Close to Target)Below 48 will bring more selling pressure and be careful as the short interest stands 45% so any positive news can burn your option position with a blink of eye so take both shares or option small size if u are not already in on the short side. If you are long sorry at least for now it doesn't look good since last earning. Real-time trade try us www.2waytrading.com
HLF Putting in a Bottom, But in Need of Buyers!The 50 support has held up before and today's close may indicate that it won't breakout short. I think the best the bulls can get now is a trading range while the bears may begin to cover at support (50). There has been very little buying pressure for the past month. Longs also resisted 68-70.
Shorts (which have ruled for a month) are indecisive based on the doji bottoms and sluggish momentum. I would cover here if I were short.
Two proprietary indicators are putting in bottoms also, so that helps.
It will definitely be a weak follow through unless a short squeeze will follow. The next minor resistance is 54.50-55 which would be a nice 10% move.
Will be watching for a bull reversal setup for a long.
Follow up from (16-days ago)Day before his (Achman) well hyped presentation, stock hit our short entry level $59.15 but he spoiled our trade and we didn't worry about it. Initially it was horrible since stock rallied back up 25% from July 22 close and threatened our stop loss..our thesis remained solid and still believe the stock can hit our target price $45 area.
Fraud levels clearly shown - at major fear and loathing levels Last December, Bill Ackman made the case to an investor conference that the company was actually a massive pyramid scheme, preying on "distributors" who pay to sign up before realizing that the product is too expensive to sell. Eventually, he implied, it would collapse under its own weight.
Critics accuse multilevel marketers of using slick pitches to persuade the unwary to buy goods in bulk, promising them that they'll make money by selling those products to others. In this way, the companies are paid upfront, and the rank and file bear a good deal of the financial risk.
Bill Ackman, the wealthy hedge-fund manager who reportedly bet $1 billion that Herbalife's stock price would fall, has accused the company of fraud, most recently in a presentation to investors last month. The company sells powdered protein shakes and supplements in what Ackman calls a pyramid scheme. Wall Street has heatedly debated his claims.
Herbalife revealed in March that it is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission. The company has stated that it complies with the law and that it will cooperate fully with the investigation.
(See Washington Post blogs for more info)
$HLF Technicals Overpowered Bill Ackman's EgoLooking at the recent Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) drama, there is no reason any investor should find themselves in the situation like Bill Ackman placed himself and his investors in. Have you ever let a position go from profitable to a losing trade, without a clear way of managing it? Well, Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) is a prime example of why as an investor, you must know how to read the charts and leave your ego at the door. If Ackman did that, not only would he have saved himself millions, he would have made double that.
Imagine if you were going to place a bet on a good ol' street fight. Would you put your money on the street fighter who has a studied and well practiced technique, or the fighter who has never taken the time to learn any kind of strategy for fighting, like martial arts? How about the fighter who has won a match or two by pure luck knockout? Or would you place your bet on the experienced proven fighter who has been winning fights consistently because of his training, dedication and time invested into learning his craft and mastering the technical aspect of the battle? As an investor, you must ask yourself the same question. Should I invest my time and money in those who simply get lucky, or something proven? Should I enter a trade without a predefined exit strategy and basis for managing the position? Well, the answer to the questions is obvious. If you are going to follow or listen to anyone regarding investments, you must find the experienced trader with a proven track record. The ones that have taken years and years to learn the markets and have developed a strategy for managing it. This is the same concept as the pro fighter. As I said, sure one can get lucky with a knockout on occasion, but those who last are those who are committed to the craft.
Let's take this a step further, why not learn the technicals behind the market moves and how the markets function so you can care for your own hard earned money yourself? Doing so will enable you to invest your money with the person that cares most about your investments... you! By learning to read the charts, you can detach yourself from any kind of emotional decision, ego driven analysts with ulterior motives or falsified financial report. Stock charts are one of the most pure forms of recognizing the trend of a stock; informing you of exactly when to take profits and more importantly when to admit you're wrong and take a loss. Stock charts eliminate the noise.
After all, why would you want to spend an endless amount of time reading financial reports which might not be accurate? The same reports that companies use to manipulate and appeal to investors. Let's take the case of Bill Ackman and Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF). After a revelation by Ackman of his massive short position in the stock, the equity dropped fast. Most amateur investors sold the equity for fear of owning a company which Ackman was calling a "fraud" and "would collapse."
A technical savvy trader, however, would have been short Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) well ahead of Ackman's first announcement; ahead of the news and crowds. The reason why those traders who utilized technical analysis were a step ahead of the crowd was based on the weekly chart pattern of Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF), which was extremely bearish.....
To read full article please visit the blog at, www.inthemoneystocks.com, as this time the article was too long to post here.
Kiliam Lopez
Pro Trader, Elite Round Table
Follow me on twitter @kiliamLopez
I do not see why this puppy shuld not go higherAfter all the scandal about Herbalife and Ackman talking against this company, from a merely technical stand point of view I must say, can't see why should not look for new highs.
As long as the historic of this chart let's me view, we came from a strong rally, that were severely retraced 76.4% in log scale.
This means that this or is the A or 1 of a structure, which means that the price usually could rise till 1 to 1 relation-ship which should be at least to 93 per share (more or less).
Besides the last stated, the last impulsive wave do not seems finished as you can see in my wave count the last structure misses a v)) wave to be completed.
Even more, if the price breaks the 47 level, the retrace is more probably a new sing of extension.
So this shuld not fall, at least, until it gets the 93 per share or more.
$HLF ACKMAN Needs more friends than foes Its not first time, it wont be last time, if you can't win..join them. The drama seems never ending one, and the stock or the company become where a real UFC fighters get matched and re-matched. If you are a good soccer striker, you can understand this drama and probably make a good fortune. Try to steal some money from merciless pundits. If today's volume tells anything, the upside roar seems underway and probably is starting rather ending.
Bill Ackam Only added a fuel in the fireThe trend was signalling a possible a full blown breakdown. The stock did bounce off from recent brutal free fall from early this year's FED investigation news. The drama is not over yet, and conservative traders should stay out of this stock both long and short. Its pure for speculators and those who want to hit a home run profits if only rewarded to them which most of the time is a losing game. As to QST this may pay off in the next 1-2 weeks and remember earning is coming on July 28, 2014 which can temporarily is a game changer for the short time. The chance the stock will fluctuate now and earning is almost 100% and do the math before you take the trade. No position.
HLF1) HLF cut their dividend, this is not a growth stock. They did this because they need the money, not expansion.
2) If their EPS was so good this quarter why cut dividend ?
3) They need the money because management knows their EPS was inflated.
Bearish Engulf with down TrendWith Negative indications for bearish week expected .....the price just touch trend line with bearish engulf seen and Mid BB , i would suggest Buy Put strike 55 @ 1.47 now for short term position
HLF good place to go shortLooks like pretty good risk/reward ratio to go short on HLF. We had a reversal candle on Thursday and it's about to cross below the 21 and 9 dma.
Trader thinks HLF is headed to $4Herbalife Ltd., a nutrition company, sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products, and personal care products worldwide. This has been one of the biggest controversies and debated stocks in the market. it has been the Ackman vs Icahn and seen on CNBC as the two heavyweights talk about the business practices of HLF. Who is winning the fight so far/ i think the answer is unsure and I am not sure we will get an answer within the next months. However, today a trader bought 1700 HLF april 47.5 Puts for $2.49. Lets breakdown their trade. The trader has the right but not obligation to sell 170,000 shares of stock at $47.50 and is paying around $300,000 for this right. so, their breakdown in the trader doesn't have stock would be $45.
IS TIME FOR BILL ACKMAN TO ENJOY IS SHORT POSITION.IS TIME FOR BILL ACKMAN TO ENJOY IS SHORT POSITION. Break of $55 will join the trip to $40
Why Ackman could be glad of HLF at ATHATH could mean that we have an analogy with 2012 and potentially a RSI neg div.
If the correlation with TIF keeps on goin we could see prolly something similar for both.
No doubt that we are still in QE-land as the market continues to rip higher, but a stock with a 1.79 beta could be seen quite aggressive even for the team of gurus fighting Ackman. The same Icahn has warned that the stock market could face a 'big drop', but prolly that was a relative statement.
Might be nice to wait and see if that's the scenario.
