HAR - 1D - BREAKOUT TRADE ?Harmony has broken out of a downward trend, is this a false breakout ? Moving average has crossed on the daily chart and Stochastic has crossed on the weekly chart. Small stop loss.
HMY trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of HARHarmony (HAR) is probably South Africa's most marginal gold mine. A marginal gold mine is one which has a cost of extraction which is relatively close to the current gold price. This means that small movements in the rand price of gold can have a radical impact on the mine, pushing it from profit to loss and back to profit very quickly. The result tends to be a volatile share price and a lot of uncertainty which investors generally do not like. Their margin is relatively thin and there is not much room for cost increases or a fall in the rand gold price. In the future, Harmony will be relying on the Wafi-Golpu mine in Papua New Guinea which it owns 50% of, together with Newcrest Mining. Harmony and Newcrest have signed a "memorandum of understanding" with the government of Papua New Guinea which gives the development of the mine a firm time frame. The development of this mine and its processing plant are expected to cost around US$2,8bn - and Harmony does not at this stage have its share of that cash (about R20bn). During 2021 the company purchased Mponeng gold mine for R4,2bn. Mponeng is the world’s deepest mine and has all the problems of ultra-deep level mining. The company is building a 30mw solar park in the Free State and has plans to build a further 80mw of green power. On 9th May 2022, the company announced that 4 of its employees had been killed at Kusasalethu mine. On 6th October 2022, the company announced that it had agreed to buy 100% of the Eva copper project in Australia for R4,1bn. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 800c compared with 499c in the previous year. Gold produced was virtually unchanged from the previous year, but all-in sustaining costs in rands fell by 6%. The company said, "Phase 1 of our renewable energy programme has been commissioned, delivering 30MW of generation capacity to our Free State operations". Harmony remains a volatile, marginal gold producer and hence risky - although recent acquisitions could change its direction significantly taking it out of precious metals. Eva is only expected to commence production in 3 years and is expected to add 260 000 ounces of gold and 1,7 billion pounds of copper to Harmony's reserves.
Harmony Gold Attracted to Wedge SupportHarmony Gold is caught in a broadening wedge, rejection at resistance is sending price towards the support where we see weight of evidence favouring a bounce as there the 200 DMA is tracking the wedge support. First price must negotiate current level where there is some horizontal support.
Our opinion on the current state of HAR.Harmony (HAR) is probably South Africa's most marginal gold mine with an all-in sustaining cost of production of $1660 against a gold price of $1907 per ounce. A marginal gold mine is one which has a cost of extraction which is relatively close to the current gold price. This means that small movements in the rand price of gold can have a radical impact on the mine, pushing it from profit to loss and back to profit very quickly. The result tends to be a volatile share price and a lot of uncertainty which investors generally do not like. Their margin is relatively thin and there is not much room for cost increases or a fall in the rand gold price. In the future, Harmony will be relying on the Wafi-Golpu mine in Papua New Guinea which it owns 50% of, together with Newcrest Mining. Harmony and Newcrest have signed a "memorandum of understanding" with the government of Papua New Guinea which gives the development of the mine a firm time frame. The development of this mine and its processing plant are expected to cost around US$2,8bn - and Harmony does not at this stage have its share of that cash (about R20bn). During 2021 the company purchased Mponeng gold mine for R4,2bn. Mponeng is the world’s deepest mine and has all the problems of ultra-deep level mining. The company is building a 30mw solar park in the Free State and has plans to build a further 80mw of green power. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2022 the company reported a 6% increase in gold revenue and a 5% decrease in total gold production. Recovered grades improved by 5% and the average gold price received was up 12%. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased 18%. The company said, "Group AISC increased by 11% to R890 735/kg (US$1 600/oz) in H1FY23 from R802 260/kg (US$1 660/oz) in H1FY22. This increase was mainly due to the higher AISC at Target 1, Kusasalethu and Hidden Valley". On 9th May 2022, the company announced that 4 of its employees had been killed at Kusasalethu mine. On 6th October 2022, the company announced that it had agreed to buy 100% of the Eva copper project in Australia for R4,1bn. In an operational update on the 9 months to 31st March 2023 the company reported an 11% increase in gold revenue with Mponeng contributing 39% to free cash flow. Underground recovered grades improved 5% and total gold production was up 2%. In a pre-close update on 22nd June 2023 the company said, "...underground recovered grades will be higher than the guided 5.6g/t for FY23. As anticipated, recovered grades at Hidden Valley also improved in the fourth quarter". In a trading statement for the year to 30th June 2023 the company estimated that HEPS would rise by between 50% and 70% due to higher grades and no impairments. Harmony remains a volatile, marginal gold producer and hence risky - although this latest acquisition could change its direction significantly taking it out of precious metals. Eva is only expected to commence production in 3 years and is expected to add 260 000 ounces of gold and 1,7 billion pounds of copper to Harmony's reserves.
HARMONY GM (HAR)Currently, we're observing the price action of HAR.
On the daily chart, a potential Cup & Handle (C&H) formation is taking shape. Recent action has caused the price to dip slightly below the brim, but a stronger break downwards move is needed for confirmation.
Concurrently, there's the presence of a falling wedge pattern, suggesting the possibility of an upward breakout that could trigger demand and stronger buying activity.
The price has dropped by 29% from its prior high in May. The current testing of the bottom trend line, which has previously acted as support.
In this juncture, both patterns remain possible. We're awaiting a clearer upward or downward move for a potential entry point.
We're eager for your insights too. Please feel free to share your thoughts on which pattern you believe is more likely to play out and any strategies you're considering in this situation.
Harmony upward momentum
The 200 day moving average may be used as a dynamic support/resistance level which the price has bounced of the moving average.
There is a MACD bullish divergence unfolding.
Idea : Long/Buy
Stop loss: R69.90
Target: R86.50
Risk/Reward: 1:2
How The Markets Traps Bulls & BearThe chart of Harmony shows down slopping resistance with support of the broadening wedge & 200DMA aligned. Bulls will buy the support while bears wait to sell the resistance. One of the groups will be right & spur a rush of profit for the other. Since we expect price to be at a half cycle correction, we look for whether price will go lower than 10 July 2023 price, that would be an early sign that bulls might be trapped as price will go lower after a short bounce. Conversely, if we do not go lower, we setup a double bottom.
Bears will wait for resistance to be enticed, fortunately for them, closing above resistance on a weekly basis is a sure sign to close short. Such moves though if purely short covering will lose buyers in a time band for a daily cycle high resulting in price reversing much faster. Confident longs would have been trapped.
As a trader, your goal is to assess the likelihood of things going against you this is why timing bands matter. You are to pick entries that meet the following criteria:
1. Near a daily cycle low with oversold RSI when seeking to go long with gains of +/-10-15%
2. Near a weekly cycle low with oversold RSI or below 50 level, you go long for +/-20-30%
3. Near a yearly low with oversold RSI or below 50 level, you go long for a +/-50-100%. With yearly lows one must be cognisant of Wykoff accumulation, it usually happens and can be quite frustrating to wait so one must buy with that in mind so that capital is not tied up for longer without appreciation. Be on the lookout, take partial profits at turning points (daily cycle high) and buy back (daily cycle low).
For examples of the last scenario, one can look at the following charts:
a) $JSEAPN - For 239 days (July 2022 to March 2023) the share was stuck in a range of +/-18% accumulating. One then must target buying the cycle low, sell the cycle high +/-15%. There were three such opportunities, one gets to grow capital by 15% while waiting for a breakout. The breakout comes and share quickly moves 25%. Often it happens a trader gets tired of sitting and sell, then the rally goes without them and causing psychological turmoil.
b) $JSEANH for 218 days (March 2022 to October 2022)
c) $JSESOL appears to be in this accumulation zone
d) $JSEFSR for 234 days (October 2022 to June 2023)
Conclusion :
I believe as traders we would have rather been buying things and wait for dividends but our capital and time does not allow slow accumulation or endure long periods of inaction. We are working from a position where we must pursue returns above inflation in pursuit of financial freedom. If we can double or triple capital in a short time, we are making strides that give us an advantage. People like Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg achieved above life returns because they were able to move into spaces where they multiplied their wealth greatly. Consider yourself on this journey too for when you multiply your capital ten times, you can buy property or replace your nine to five incomes with dividends. So do not feel greedy when pursuing big returns in a short space of time. I live for these moves, the 10% in a week, 30% in 40 days or 100% in 90 days. We will not always get it right but if we build capital more times than we lose it, we are on our way.
HARHarmony Gold (HAR): A massive run for gold shares over the 5 months however the long side reward-to-risk at current levels is not appealing. On Friday we saw the first real sign of selling. The bullish regime is in tact with the price still extended well above the 8-21 EMA. At first glance, the ‘next best’ demand range is at the rising 21-EMA (7611c). This level is subject to change.
HARMONY - BreakoutHarmony is breaking out of the long-term downtrend
R88 next target level and area of interest, short corrective pullbacks to be expected.
Harmony - LONG IdeaGolds have reached interesting levels and it looks like we could get a rally from here, especially if the dollar comes under pressure.
SL and TP1 on the chart
Harmony GoldHarmony Gold has followed my envision price path highlighted on 5 December 2022. The key level being the bearish 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The arrow/annotation is unchanged from the original post, which has also been attached.
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$JSEHAR - Harmony GM: Bullish on Near-Term FundamentalsHarmony released a SENS update this morning.
Salient notes:
Total gold production for the six-month period ended 31 December 2022 (“H1FY23”) was between 720 000 oz (22 394kg) and 745 000 oz (23 171kg).
In line with guidance, all-in-sustaining costs (“AISC”) for H1FY23 was below R900 000/kg.
Despite the ongoing electricity shortages and supply chain disruptions, total gold production increased quarter-on-quarter.
This production increase was mainly as a result of improved underground recovered grades in Q2FY23, which were higher than the 5.45 to 5.60g/t guided earlier this year.
The Company will publish its interim operating and financial results for the 2023 financial year on Wednesday, 1 March 2023 at 10am.
The Elliott Wave structure supports this positive update.
From the 3333 zac low in September 2022, Harmony has been rallying in impulsing fashion.
The wave count suggests that the pullback from 7050 zac is for wave ((iv)) and the stock is now due one more rally to complete wave ((v)) of wave 1.
The short-term key level to watch is 6010 zac but wave ((iv)) can still retrace deeper and remain valid as long as it does not terminate below 5394 zac.
HAR - 1D - HARMONYHead and Shoulders has formed on this instrument. Harmony is overbought on the stochastics, however MACD has crossed to the upside as well ass the short-term EMA'S. Waiting for a break to the upside with first target R79 and second target R96 if the pattern plays out to the full.
HARHarmony Gold HAR | For medium term traders, the share is in a bullish regime however, is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, which is also in line with the prior swing highs and prior breakdown level as well as the prior swing highs. This range is 6720c to 6900c, which could be used to potentially start a sell position.
Harmony is looking good for upside but there is a warningHarmony is looking bullish for upside. There are a few hurdles. 1. Needs to break above the medium term downtrend. 2. Needs to break above the 200MA...
3. There is a gap which needs to close.
However, momentum according to price action does look up so the chances are quite positive for upside..
Long $HMY - Confluence of FactorsConfluence of Bullish Factors
-Gold is due for a weekly cycle low (See Bob Loukas on Twitter for info)
-Key support
Weekly cycle lows typically occur every 22-26 weeks. Currently at Week 23. Weekly cycle lows typically start off with powerful positive price action. Where it ends up is anyone's guess. The key support level should also provide some positive momentum. These two factors combined is what makes me interested in this stock. Many other gold/silver miners are just in free fall, having already broken their key support levels. Harmony is unique in its relative strength. With a break above $3.45, I will enter a long and trail stops on key support levels as the trend develops. I will be aggressive in raising stops to breakeven.
Bottom line - A good opportunity to get long precious metals may present itself in the near future. I think HMY is a good option to play. My other mining stocks of interest are $FNV and $WPM.
HAR symmetrical triangle HAR symmetrical triangle can target R45 - R44 area if triggered.
Trade ideas are my own and not financial advice.
Pair Trade Idea: Buy HAR/Sell GFITime Frame: Actually, quite short term - looking for a quick reversion to the mean and narrowing of the performance gap.
- Trading at lower boundary of 40-day 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band (BB)
- 5-day performance gap is wide as it sees GFI lower by 4.23% while HAR is lower by a larger 12.61%
- 250-day correlation above 80%
Suggested Trading Levels:
- Ratio: 0.3485 (current reading)
- Stop-loss: 0.3375
- Target: 0.3685 (near mid-point of BB)
A successful pair trade can be realized 1 of 3 ways:
The long position rises while the short position falls
The long position rises faster than the short position rises
The short position falls faster than the long position falls.
For more real-time insights and trade ideas, or if you're considering at alternative trading services provider, get in touch today.
AG Capital -Storm trading Morning Call 3 December 2021We give a quick recap of markets overnight and the previous day and insights into the day ahead with a few trade ideas on the day. Ideas are strictly NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
HarmonyPricing slicing through incline, and then horizontal resistance in 2 sessions.
Next challenge for bulls is the horizontal resistance around 80.
*RSI getting overbought, pullback possible.
$HMY WEEKLY Bullish gartleyReal nice bullish divergence here on the MACD, at the PCZ of a Bullish Gartley. We could see a confirmation low, but with the new CPI reports, it may not give us a chance. Position trade here, dollar cost averaging if need be.
#HARMONYGOLD great setup for higher targetsFor the gold bulls, i really like the look of this setup.. We have finally seen harmony bottom out and break out the falling wedge with divergence ever present as it bottomed. I think we can see this rally up to previous resistance and 200 day moving average at $4.20
