IPI - Fertilizer Trade: A Forgotten Play, Geopolitical upsideWhenever a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war materializes, agricultural restoration will be one of the first and most critical steps, not just for Ukraine's battered fields but also for Russia's export infrastructure.
Both countries are central to global wheat markets, and reviving output means ramping up fertilizer usage, especially potash. That sets the stage for renewed interest in fertilizer producers.
Potash, also known as potassium chloride, is an important nutrient for plants. It helps them resist drought, strengthens their roots, and increases crop yields. Unlike more energy-intensive nitrogen fertilizers, potash supply is concentrated and not easily ramped up.
Belarus and Russia are among the top 10 world potash exporters, but sanctions and supply chain bottlenecks have impacted their volumes.
Ukraine will need to import significant amounts of potash to rebuild its ag base.
Global potash demand could rise sharply as post-war reconstruction efforts kick in, and that makes Western suppliers a critical piece of the puzzle
The market may not be pricing in this recovery narrative just yet. Fertilizer stocks popped in 2022, but most have been rangebound or sold off since as supply chains stabilized and the commodity cycle cooled off. But structurally, if global potash demand starts ramping again, especially from a fresh buyer like Ukraine coming back, the upside case for U.S.-based producers becomes clearer.
Macro themes like agricultural recovery after war are slow-building but often explosive once recognized. The fertilizer story is one of them. If you're positioning ahead of that curve, it's not just about trading. It's also about recognizing that geopolitical peace, when it comes, won't just be about diplomacy. It'll be about digging back into the soil and starting over.
Intrepid Potash may be one of the most overlooked names in the market right now. It is tucked away in the fertilizer sector, has low volume, and is not hyped.
But that quiet tape hides an interesting setup. After a boom-bust cycle following the 2022 commodity shock, IPI has been grinding through a long consolidation.
Now, with potash prices stabilizing and geopolitical risk still unresolved, the stock is showing early signs of an uptrend. And with options cheap and sentiment nonexistent, this could be a classic contrarian long.
2022: IPI surged alongside fertilizer peers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked global fears of food insecurity and disrupted potash supply chains.
2023–2024: The stock gave up those gains as:
Central banks hiked aggressively, capping inflation-linked trades.
Potash prices corrected from panic highs.
Broader commodity sentiment turned defensive.
Now (Mid-2025): IPI is starting to build out around long-term support. Price action is tightening, and early momentum signals are starting to flash. This isn't a runaway rally yet, but it's building the right kind of structure.
Call options with a ~$45-$50 target expiring December (can also use call spreads)
Option premiums are still cheap, reflecting low implied volatility and a market because nobody 'in their right mind' is looking at this yet.
If Russia-Ukraine negotiations resume or if even partial de-escalation happens, the market may quickly reprice ag rebuild stories. Fertilizer demand from Ukraine could spike, and with Belarusian and Russian supply still under partial sanctions, Western producers like IPI could benefit disproportionately.
If the Fed signals that it's near the end of its tightening cycle or even hints at cuts in late 2025, rate-sensitive commodity equities could start to re-rate higher. That would relieve pressure on capex-intensive names like IPI.
Global potash prices are off their highs but showing signs of stabilization. If demand forecasts pick up, prices don't need to move explosively higher, just holding firm or ticking higher could expand margins and renew investor interest & sentiment
With few traders active in IPI's options, implied volatility remains low. Any volume-driven breakout (or narrative shift) could trigger a fast repricing. Think of this as a "volatility catch-up" play in addition to a directional one.
IPI trade ideas
$IPI Potash Fertilizer Play Fertilizer stocks like this one and MOS are highly cyclical. Fertilizer has taken a beating lately, if things get uglier this stock could get cut in half. If things go okay it could easily double and outperform others in the group like the bigger MOS. IPI could also get bought out any time.
IPI - breakup imminent?After consolidating for the past 4 months, it is look closer to the breakup soon, hopefully with solid volme to carry it towards 68-70 eventually. Whether it can reach there remains to be seen. Scale out along the way and manage the rest of the position with trailing stops
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Please your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you.
IPI: Ascending Triangle (77%) Cup'n Handle (82%)Potash is a material stock that is currently sailing un North quite smoothly.
Left hand side graph shows a confirmed ascending triangle on the daily with a possible total gain of 77% for a price target of 67.05$.
Top right graph shows a confirmed cup'n handle on the weekly chart with a total gain of 82% for a price target of 68.60$.
Both graphs are showing similar price targets on different timeframes with different paterns. This increases confidence in achiving the target goal.
Finally, the industry sector chart (bottom right graph) has broken through the 550$ resistance (red line). This makes an even broader statement into a bullish trend for the materials industry, increasing even more the confidence level of IPI hitting the 67-68$ price target.
Stay humble, have fun, make money!
IPI: Ascending Triangle (77%)IPI Potach, another ressource stock on an uptick ramp.
Interestingly, the daily chart shows an ascending triangle, and the Weekly shows a double bottom both of which makes my think this is going up.
Ascending triangle, confirmed. A bit late but still avbout 40% left in the tank.
If confirmed:
Price target = 67.05$
Stay humble, have fun, make money!
IPI 50% drop to $14.50!IPI in Wyckoff Distribution, get ready for Markdown phase!
Don't like Wyckoff? Consider downside targets on traditional head and shoulders break measures to same area.
PSY = preliminary supply
BC = buying climax
AR = automatic reaction
ST = secondary test
SOW - sign of weakness
UT = upthrust
LPSY = last point of supply
Source for labels: Stockcharts.com
Intrepid Potash Inc 🧙Intrepid Potash Inc produces and sells potash and potash byproducts in three main product segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield solutions. The Potash segment produces and sells potash to the agricultural industry as a fertilizer input, the industrial market as a component of oil and gas drilling fluid, and the animal feed market as a nutrient supplement. The Trio segment produces and sells specialty fertilizer that consists of potassium, sulfate, and magnesium, and is mined from langbeinite ore. The oilfield solutions segment offers water, high-speed potassium chloride mixing services, salt water disposal services, and trucking services. The vast majority of revenue is generated in the United States, which is also the location of the firm's production facilities.
If you want not to miss ideas like this one,🎯 subscribe and press a thumb up! 👍 Have a question? Don't be shy to ask! 🤓 Interested to study how to analyze charts, follow me!
Stealth Bull Market in Agriculture: Intrepid PotashOne of the only potash producers listed on a US exchange. Has been left for dead for over a decade.
Intrepid Potash $IPI has returned 150% since the day of the election 11/3. I am a buyer on weakness and pullbacks. If the inflation cycle really does heat up over the next few months, $IPI could make a move to $100 in 2021.
IPI set up for a nice conservative 100% gain over the next 3 moIPI is a good one for a conservative 100% gain in 3 months. Good P/E, consolidation on the 4 hour chart, and Zacks rating upgrade. It is also following a pattern that is present on the weekly chart. It appears that we are at the bottom of a "U" or a "V". IPI is a good one to do some research on.
Is it a Head & Shoulders?If that break up wasn't there it looks like a good Head and Shoulders, so does the break nullify the pattern? There's certainly a temptation to buy in, potash prices are up, the company has slashed operating costs and it has valuable water rights in New Mexico, water which shale frackers will pay for. If there's to be a break upwards now looks like the time, with an earnings report tomorrow and the "maybe head and shoulders" now fully formed - Opinions please!!
Long Time Favorite $IPI Setting Up For Large Potential UpsideThis isn't a trade you have to go rushing into as you should get a chance to buy lower, but please keep this on a watchlist. After a large run up, $IPI has been consolidating in this range for a few months and may be ready to break out above. A move above $4.25 can get fast to the upside.
A post I did some time ago playing out I believe just how it should: www.omahacharts.com