KODK trade ideas
KODK Too hyped for its own goodA little background into the new coin Kodak got behind: its main purpose is to use by paparazzi.
"WENN proposes to launch KodakCoin as the native token of the KodakOne blockchain. What does KodakOne do? It trawls the web for unauthorized use of images that WENN holds the rights to. When the system finds a licensing violation, it will settle payments due to photographers using KodakCoin. Kodak didn’t respond to a request for further details about the blockchain project and the licensing agreement.
If a blockchain-based system to track photos on the web sounds far-fetched, suspend your disbelief for a moment. It’s actually a problem that several startups in the blockchain world have tackled, with varying degrees of success. Among them was Mediachain, which did almost exactly what KodakOne plans to do, and was acquired by Spotify last year. Another firm was Ascribe, which used a blockchain to track fine art and other intellectual property."
Think back to when Long Island Iced Tea renamed their company to Long Blockchain and their stock price skyrocketed overnight. The Kodak hype train took off so fast that it will soon derail.
GAP FILL IN PROGRESS. Watch Her fly around $8 If she pulls back to $8 I'm in. Potential long target $17
Smart Idea that is also very scary.I have to say, I'm honestly impressed with Kodak. I really didn't think that a major company would pull such a ballsy thing this early in the game. To announce that they were going to go crypto was completely unforeseen from my end. Building a damn miner was also my unforeseen. This all can be a good thing and also a bad thing because things can be played out very differently in the long run of things.
So lets get things on the road.
Let's start with the short run of things, Currently the company is joining in on the whole crypto craze. I won't lie, that is smart move on their part. If you look at their stock value over the past year, it has literally dipped to the point where I was wondering if the company will even survive in two year. But after the announcement of the currency, their stock shot up. to almost 12 dollars again. That's freaken insane and hilarious at the same time. They announced that their is a huge demand for their miners at the moment, which also drove their stock value even higher. So for this quarter, you can expect a huge gain in their stock value. If anything, it's going to be the biggest increase since.... well forever. If you are a short term investor, I would say that is a good thing. You get in while it's still low, and you pull out when your value doubles or triples in this matter which I have no doubt will end up happening. First quarter of the release of their miners will 2x to 2.5x your value. By second quarter, their would be an increase of about 1.25x to 1.5x your value ( based of the previous quarters value). Then third quarter, a slight increase and probably a slightly decrease in the fourth quarter since it's the holiday season. So in the first year, you will do well. After that, it's will really depend on how well the company's miner and coin does. And by the way, this will most likely take you off the short gain capital list. (if you invested early enough.)
Now for the long part, I don't know how they company will do in the long run of things. Just because they added the whole crypto currency and are trying to pay photographers directly doesn't still love their initial problem which is how to increase revenue or even attract new customers. Unless the company either shifts completely into crypto and throws out their camera making, I don't really think the company will survive in the long run. Honestly, the whole thing they pulled is a double edged sword where there is a huge reward if everything goes well or a very painful ending if things go bad. I would probably say there is two years before we can really say how things will turn out. Not only that but the price of their crypto and stock prices will be very heavily influenced by each other. If their crypto does well, their stocks shoot up which in turn would shoot up the price of their crypto, and which would continue the cycle. And it's the same if their crypto does not do well, their stock price will plummet which in turn would also plumet the value of their coins. Unless, the company has set price for how much their crypto is worth, the first two quarters of the release of their crypto will heavily influence how well the company will do. If they sell a lot of coins, stock will do well. If not, then stocks will drop. If you plan to short the stock anytime soon, I would strongly advice against it since this can really hurt you if things do not play out like you predict it would. (Unless you have insider information) At the moment, the coin announcement threw me off even though it shouldn't have. This has now become the second company to officially announce that they would be making crypto. (First was MindArk for Entropia MMORPG. BTW, I'm not counting all the partnerships that exist with different companies such as Stellar Lumen and Kik, Microsoft and IOTA.)
Anyways, have a good day everyone. I got morning class so I got things to do.
PS. There will be many of you who won't see like this and I welcome and respect your opinions.
Kodak getting pumped (and probably pumped)Eastman Kodak has has been going crazy in the passed 3 days on their adoption of "blockchain technology" (everybodies favorite buzzword). And it has grown nearly 250%. Not only is that absolutely insane for the current market but Kodak has had a losing streak pretty much since it has gone public... To top it all off, take a look at the volume: more shares have been traded in the last 3 days than have ever been traded in in Kodak's entire existence. If that doesn't ring any alarm bells, at least it adds to the long list of things that make cryptocurrency the dotcom bubble all over again.
$KODK The Old Blockchain BumpThinking $KODK has some legs here. Green is risk/support, Red is reward/resistance. Simple trade-off for a 2-24hr swing.
More bearish then bullish looking for break down. Looks more bearish then bullish here. For a swing trade I would place a limit order of 13.93 and use a stop of 14.79. 1st target would be 12.33 and 2nd would be 10.83
Looking for a short that wont go up as the S&P recovers? KODK is circling the drain. Their balance sheet and quarterly income is very unimpressive; they don't look like the books of a company on a rebound but rather a company winding down operations. Q4 2014 they had $260m~ assets over liabilities, that number is down to a scant $75m~. During the same period, cost of revenue is down about 17% vs revenue being down 'only' 13% but that's not terribly impressive.
Don't get me wrong, I like film cameras. Working in a dark room to print your own photos is great. But it is a niche market that doesn't match up with Kodak's half billion market cap (they don't even make cameras mind you!) The film market is dominated by Polaroid, toy cameras, and pre-owned sales. Film and paper are not a monopoly for Kodak in the 21st century with Fuji, Ilford and others long pushing Kodak out of frame.
This chart shows Kodak's next slide. The 1 day MACD is already breaking negative and the chart below is the 3-day MACD showing that the leveling/upturn from the start of this year is over. Kodak may as well have agreed to sell their wares exclusively at Radioshack. Much of what their current business is (business services etc) doesn't have the same economies of scale that Xerox and others have. They could have held some patents and licensed the remainder to get some revenue streams but it's too late now. Maybe Kodak is already "winding down" and doesn't want to acknowledge it publicly. They don't have to wind down to zero; they can still be a single factory film manufacturer, making a tidy profit for a few dozen employees. But a half billion dollar multinational? Sorry, but that image is fading fast.
Bottom line:
Buy put options for as far out as possible and sit on them---Take a higher strike price (>$8) if you are looking for a cheap bet, low strike price if you are looking for a super cheap bet.
